Accounting for finance in electrification models for sub-Saharan Africa

Electrifying 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa will require substantial investments. Integrated electrification models inform key policy decisions and electricity access investments in many countries. While current electrification models apply sophisticated geospatial methods, they often make simplistic assumptions about financing conditions. Here we establish cost of capital values, reflecting country and electrification mode (that is, grid extension, minigrids and stand-alone systems), and specific risks faced by investors and integrate them into an open source electrification model. We find that the cost of capital for off-grid electrification is much higher than currently assumed, up to 32.2%. Accounting for finance shifts approximately 240 million people from minigrids to stand-alone systems in our main scenario, suggesting a more cost-effective electrification mode mix than previously suggested. In turn, electrification models based on uniform cost of capital assumptions increase the per kWh cost of electricity by 20%, on average. Upscaling and mainstreaming off-grid finance can lower electrification cost substantially. Renewable energy technologies are intended to contribute to electricity access both on grid and off grid in sub-Saharan Africa, yet their high cost of capital continues to hamper their growth. Using data from sub-Saharan Africa, Agutu et al. estimate the cost of capital at the country and technology level for electrification modes and find that the cost of capital is much higher than previously estimated in many cases.

Automated summary

To electrify 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa, substantial investments are needed. This study establishes an open source electrification model by incorporating cost of capital values and specific risks faced by investors. The research finds that the cost of capital for off-grid electrification is much higher than previously estimated and scaling up off-grid finance can significantly reduce electrification costs.