Increased airborne transmission of COVID-19 with new variants, implications for health policies

New COVID-19 variants, either of higher viral load such as delta or higher contagiousness like omicron, can lead to higher airborne transmission than historical strains. This paper highlights their implications for health pol-icies, based on a clear analytical understanding and modeling of the airborne contamination paths, of the dose following exposure, and the importance of the counting unit for pathogens, itsel f linked to the dose-response law. Using the counting unit of Wells, i.e. the quantum of contagium, we develop the conservation equation of quanta which allows deriving the value of the quantu m concentration at steady state for a well-mixed room. The li n k with the monitoring concentration of carbon dioxide is made and used for a risk analysis of a variety of situations for which we collected CO2 time-series observations. The main conclusions of these observations ar e that 1) the present norms of ventilation, are both insufficient and not respected, especially in a variety of public premises, leading to high risk of contamination and that 2) air can of ten be considered well-mixed. Finally, we insist that public health policy in the field of airborne transmission should be based on a multi parameter analysis such as the time of exposure, the quantum production rate, mask wearing and the infector proportion in the population in order to evaluate the risk, considering the whole complexity of dose evaluation. Recognizing airborne transmission requires thinking in terms of time of exposu r e rather than in terms of proximal distance.

Automated summary

This paper discusses the implications of new COVID-19 variants, such as delta and omicron, on health policies. It provides a clear analytical understanding and modeling of airborne contamination paths, dose-response laws, and the importance of counting units for pathogens. The study emphasizes the inadequacy of current ventilation standards and points out that air can often be considered well-mixed. It suggests that public health policies should consider multiple parameters, including exposure time, pathogen production rate, mask wearing, and the proportion of infectors in the population.