Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos, Darlan da Silva Candido, William Marciel de Souza, Lewis Buss, Sabrina L. Li, Rafael H. M. Pereira, Chieh-Hsi Wu, Ester C. Sabino, Nuno R. Faria
Summary: This paper analyzes the fragmented information on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil, utilizing survey responses from 4,027 mayors covering 72.3% of all municipalities. By quantifying NPIs, the study aims to assess the role of interventions in reducing transmission.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Manon Ragonnet-Cronin, Olivia Boyd, Lily Geidelberg, David Jorgensen, Fabricia F. Nascimento, Igor Siveroni, Robert A. Johnson, Marc Baguelin, Zulma M. Cucunuba, Elita Jauneikaite, Swapnil Mishra, Oliver J. Watson, Neil Ferguson, Anne Cori, Christl A. Donnelly, Erik Volz
Summary: The study indicates that early implementation of strong non-pharmaceutical interventions can reduce COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. The time elapsed between epidemic origin and intervention is associated with epidemic severity and explains part of the variance in reported deaths. Delay in implementing interventions resulted in more severe epidemics.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2021)
Review
Physics, Multidisciplinary
Nicola Perra
Summary: Infectious diseases and human behavior are closely linked, with the outbreak of COVID-19 leading to significant behavioral changes. Non-pharmaceutical interventions have played a key role in combating the virus, prompting various societal processes to adapt. The availability of data describing behavioral changes induced by the pandemic has increased dramatically, providing opportunities for future research and challenges.
PHYSICS REPORTS-REVIEW SECTION OF PHYSICS LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Medicine, General & Internal
Yang Liu, Christian Morgenstern, James Kelly, Rachel Lowe, Mark Jit
Summary: The study assessed the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in reducing the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in 130 countries and territories. It found that school closure and internal movement restrictions had a strong association with reduced transmission, while the effectiveness of other NPIs varied depending on specific conditions.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
N. A. Duncan, G. F. L'Her, A. G. Osborne, S. L. Sawyer, M. R. Deinert
Summary: This study uses an epidemiological model and Monte Carlo simulations to show that the combination of mask usage and changes in mobility in the US prevented approximately 248.3 million infections before the availability of vaccines.
ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE
(2022)
Review
Infectious Diseases
Lara Marleen Fricke, Stephan Glockner, Maren Dreier, Berit Lange
Summary: The study found that non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 have an impact on global influenza burden, leading to lower estimates of influenza. However, there is high heterogeneity in some indicators, such as unclear results for syndromic indicators.
JOURNAL OF INFECTION
(2021)
Article
Virology
Brenden Clark, Melvili Cintron, Mini Kamboj, N. Esther Babady
Summary: The study investigated the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the incidence of respiratory virus infections in a cancer hospital. The results showed a significant reduction in infection rates during the period of 2019-2020, followed by a gradual increase in subsequent seasons. This study provides valuable data to guide public health practices and support the efficacy of nonpharmaceutical interventions in curtailing the spread of respiratory viruses.
JOURNAL OF CLINICAL VIROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Biochemical Research Methods
Katharina Ledebur, Michaela Kaleta, Jiaying Chen, Simon D. Lindner, Caspar Matzhold, Florian Weidle, Christoph Wittmann, Katharina Habimana, Linda Kerschbaumer, Sophie Stumpfl, Georg Heiler, Martin Bicher, Nikolas Popper, Florian Bachner, Peter Klimek
Summary: This study develops a data-driven modelling approach to explain the regional variations in SARS-CoV-2 spread in 116 Austrian regions based on meteorological factors, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and mobility. The findings show that more than 60% of the observed regional variations can be explained by these factors. Decreasing temperature and humidity, increasing cloudiness, precipitation, and the absence of mitigation measures for public events are the strongest drivers for increased virus transmission.
PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Biochemical Research Methods
Robert Hinch, William J. M. Probert, Anel Nurtay, Michelle Kendall, Chris Wymant, Matthew Hall, Katrina Lythgoe, Ana Bulas Cruz, Lele Zhao, Andrea Stewart, Luca Ferretti, Daniel Montero, James Warren, Nicole Mather, Matthew Abueg, Neo Wu, Olivier Legat, Katie Bentley, Thomas Mead, Kelvin Van-Vuuren, Dylan Feldner-Busztin, Tommaso Ristori, Anthony Finkelstein, David G. Bonsall, Lucie Abeler-Dorner, Christophe Fraser
Summary: OpenABM-Covid19 is a detailed epidemic model that simulates the spread of COVID-19 in a population of individuals. It allows scientists and policymakers to quickly compare the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions and provides accurate simulation results.
PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Medicine, General & Internal
George J. Milne, Julian Carrivick, David Whyatt
Summary: The study evaluated the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and alternative vaccination strategies to determine feasible Delta mitigation strategies for Australia. It was found that increasing vaccine coverage, activating moderate NPI measures, and including children and adolescents in the vaccination program can reduce cases, hospitalizations, and deaths caused by the Delta variant.
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Michael P. Hengartner, Gregor Waller, Agnes von Wyl
Summary: This study found that young adults who perceive COVID-19 as harmless, ignore and mistrust information from health authorities and medical experts are most likely to be noncompliant with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI). These findings can help target a high-risk population for infection and concentrate educational and interventional public health measures effectively.
FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH
(2022)
Review
Infectious Diseases
Alba Mendez-Brito, Charbel El Bcheraoui, Francisco Pozo-Martin
Summary: School closing, workplace closing, business and venue closing, and public event bans were found to be the most effective NPIs in controlling the spread of COVID-19 based on a systematic review of 34 studies. Early implementation and a combination of specific social distancing measures were associated with reducing COVID-19 cases and deaths.
JOURNAL OF INFECTION
(2021)
Article
Medicine, General & Internal
Donal Bisanzio, Richard Reithinger, Ada Alqunaibet, Sami Almudarra, Reem F. Alsukait, Di Dong, Yi Zhang, Sameh El-Saharty, Christopher H. Herbst
Summary: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) effectively controlled the spread of COVID-19 through the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as mask-wearing, physical distancing, and contact tracing. The study highlights the importance of these interventions in controlling the disease and suggests that in-person education and international travel can be resumed with strict adherence to preventive measures.
Article
Infectious Diseases
Alicia Rosello, Rosanna C. Barnard, David R. M. Smith, Stephanie Evans, Fiona Grimm, Nicholas G. Davies, Sarah R. Deeny, Gwenan M. Knight, W. John Edmunds
Summary: COVID-19 outbreaks still occur in English care homes despite interventions. Importation of SARS-CoV-2 by staff from the community is the main driver of outbreaks, while importation from visitors or hospitals is rare. Increasing staff testing frequency and enhancing infection prevention and control are important measures to prevent outbreaks.
BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Afra Nerpel, Liuhuaying Yang, Johannes Sorger, Annemarie Kasbohrer, Chris Walzer, Amelie Desvars-Larrive
Summary: The study establishes a global dataset of SARS-CoV-2 events in animals, providing valuable insights for research on zoonotic diseases and facilitating analysis and adaptation of monitoring strategies.
Article
Biochemical Research Methods
Arash Mehrjou, Ashkan Soleymani, Amin Abyaneh, Samir Bhatt, Bernhard Schoelkopf, Stefan Bauer
Summary: Pyfectious is an agent-based simulator that provides an environment for reinforcement learning agents to discover novel agent-based policies for epidemic control. It introduces several unprecedented novelties in the field of epidemiology simulation, including a probabilistic assignment method for population structure construction and a multi-resolution disease propagation algorithm. The simulator's control components are designed to allow the discovery of effective policies through advanced RL methods. Extensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate Pyfectious' capabilities and its use in RL for epidemic control policy discovery.
PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Medicine, General & Internal
Seth Flaxman, Charles Whittaker, Elizaveta Semenova, Theo Rashid, Robbie M. Parks, Alexandra Blenkinsop, H. Juliette T. Unwin, Swapnil Mishra, Samir Bhatt, Deepti Gurdasani, Oliver Ratmann
Summary: COVID-19 was responsible for more than 940,000 deaths in the US, including at least 1,289 children and young people aged 0 to 19 years, with at least 821 deaths occurring between August 1, 2021, and July 31, 2022. The objective of the study was to determine whether COVID-19 is a leading cause of death in children and young people in the US. The findings showed that COVID-19 ranked among the top 10 causes of death in this age group, highlighting its significant impact. Rating: 9/10.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Kimberly M. Fornace, Hillary M. Topazian, Isobel Routledge, Syafie Asyraf, Jenarun Jelip, Kim A. Lindblade, Mohammad Saffree Jeffree, Pablo Ruiz Cuenca, Samir Bhatt, Kamruddin Ahmed, Azra C. Ghani, Chris Drakeley
Summary: The study used mathematical modeling to analyze data from Malaysia and found that sustained non-zoonotic transmission of the zoonotic malaria parasite Plasmodium knowlesi is unlikely to be occurring in this setting.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Medicine, General & Internal
Pernille Yde Nielsen, Andreas Bartholdy, Lise Mette Rahbek Gjerdrum, Rudi Gerardus Johannes Westendorp, Laust Hvas Mortensen, Samir Bhatt, Majken Karoline Jensen
Summary: The Danish Pathology Life Course (PATHOLIFE) cohort was established to conduct epidemiological research on histological and cytological features in relation to the life course histories of the entire Danish population. The research results can improve the quality of diagnosis, prognosis, and stratification of patients, and may identify new routes of treatment.
Article
Biochemical Research Methods
Shozen K. Dan, Yu Chen, Yining Chen, Melodie Monod, Veronika E. Jaeger, Samir E. Bhatt, Andre E. Karch, Oliver Ratmann
Summary: The study develops a model-based approach to estimate fine-age contact patterns from coarse-age data and measure real-time effective reproduction numbers. The model can also adjust for reporting fatigue and time trends, and is applicable to modern survey data with coarsely reported age information.
PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Physics, Multidisciplinary
Matthew J. J. Penn, Daniel J. J. Laydon, Joseph Penn, Charles Whittaker, Christian Morgenstern, Oliver Ratmann, Swapnil Mishra, Mikko S. S. Pakkanen, Christl A. A. Donnelly, Samir Bhatt
Summary: This study characterizes the uncertainty in infectious disease outbreaks, including intrinsic randomness and imperfect knowledge of parameters, using a time-varying general branching process model. They find that substantial variation in outbreak size can occur even without superspreading, and the uncertainty of outbreaks grows rapidly. Forecasting that only considers imperfect knowledge of parameters significantly underestimates the true extent of potential risk.
COMMUNICATIONS PHYSICS
(2023)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Adrienne Epstein, Jane Frances Namuganga, Isaiah Nabende, Emmanuel Victor Kamya, Moses R. Kamya, Grant Dorsey, Hugh Sturrock, Samir Bhatt, Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer, Bryan Greenhouse
Summary: This study used health facility data in Uganda to model and map malaria incidence, finding high burden in the north and northeast regions, and lower incidence in areas receiving indoor residual spraying. It also discovered potential underreporting by the routine surveillance system. The study suggests investing in robust surveillance systems within public health facilities as a cost-effective tool for identifying vulnerable regions and tracking intervention impact.
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Junyao Zheng, Ning Zhang, Guoquan Shen, Fengchao Liang, Yang Zhao, Xiaochen He, Ying Wang, Rongxin He, Wenna Chen, Hao Xue, Yue Shen, Yang Fu, Wei -Hong Zhang, Lei Zhang, Samir Bhatt, Ying Mao, Bin Zhu
Summary: China has achieved significant control in infectious diseases over the past decades, and this study systematically reviewed the spatiotemporal trends and seasonal characteristics of notifiable infectious diseases in China during 2005-2020. The results showed that there were significant upward trends in diseases like pertussis, dengue fever, brucellosis, scarlet fever, AIDS, syphilis, hepatitis C, and hepatitis E. Additionally, diseases such as measles, dysentery, malaria, dengue fever, brucellosis, and tuberculosis exhibited significant seasonal patterns.
JMIR PUBLIC HEALTH AND SURVEILLANCE
(2023)
Article
Health Care Sciences & Services
Naja Hulvej Rod, Jessica Bengtsson, Leonie K. Elsenburg, Megan Davies, David Taylor-Robinson, Samir Bhatt, Andreas Rieckmann
Summary: This study evaluated the impact of childhood adversity on the cancer burden among young individuals using Danish nationwide register data. The study found that childhood adversity was associated with an increased risk of breast and cervical cancer in women, while it was associated with a decreased risk of malignant melanoma and brain and central nervous system cancers. For men, persistent deprivation and adversity were associated with an increased risk of cancer and mortality.
LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH-EUROPE
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Iwona Hawryluk, Swapnil Mishra, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Thomas A. Mellan
Summary: This paper introduces a method called referenced TI, which computes a single model's normalising constant efficiently by using a judiciously chosen reference density to solve the integration problem of high-dimensional distributions in realistic problems. The method is shown to be useful in practice when applied to model selection for a semi-mechanistic hierarchical Bayesian model of COVID-19 transmission in South Korea.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Alexandros Katsiferis, Samir Bhatt, Laust Hvas Mortensen, Swapnil Mishra, Majken Karoline Jensen, Rudi G. J. Westendorp
Summary: This study investigated whether the temporal patterns of healthcare expenditures can improve predictive performance for mortality in bereaved older adults. The study found that the patterns of healthcare expenditures significantly improved mortality predictions and had greater clinical significance compared to other sociodemographic variables.
Article
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Melodie Monod, Alexandra Blenkinsop, Andrea Brizzi, Yu Chen, Carlos Cardoso Correia Perello, Vidoushee Jogarah, Yuanrong Wang, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Oliver Ratmann
Summary: In this study, a hierarchical Bayesian model is used to estimate age-specific COVID-19 attributable deaths over time in the United States. The model utilizes a novel non-parametric spatial approach combined with regularized B-splines to project a low-rank Gaussian Process. The results demonstrate that this projection defines a Gaussian Process with smoothness and computational efficiency properties, and shows improved performance compared to standard approaches. The model is applied to weekly, age-stratified COVID-19 attributable deaths reported by the US Centers for Disease Control, and the estimates provide valuable information for calculating age-specific mortality rates, understanding variation in age-specific deaths, and fitting epidemic models. Additionally, the model is coupled with age-specific vaccination rates to analyze their impact on COVID-19 deaths and quantify the avoided and avoidable deaths based on different vaccination scenarios. The developed B-splines projected Gaussian Process priors serve as appealing additions to Bayesian regularizing priors.
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Daniel J. Laydon, Simon Cauchemez, Wes R. Hinsley, Samir Bhatt, Neil M. Ferguson
Summary: In this study, the authors examined strategies for the optimal deployment of MERS-CoV vaccines among health-care workers. They found that proactive campaigns can outperform reactive campaigns, especially at regional or national levels. The study also highlighted the importance of stockpiling vaccines for countries at risk of outbreaks.
LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH
(2023)
