Revised conceptualization of the North China Basin groundwater flow system: Groundwater age, heat and flow simulations

Groundwater flow in deep sedimentary basins results from complex evolution processes on geological timescales. Groundwater flow systems conceptualized according to topography and/or groundwater table configuration generally assume a near-equilibrium state with the modern landscape. However, the time to reach such a steady state, and more generally the timescales of groundwater flow system evolution are key considerations for large sedimentary basins. This is true in the North China Basin (NCB), which has been studied for many years due to its importance as a groundwater supply. Despite many years of study, there remain contradictions between the generally accepted conceptual model of regional flow, and environmental tracer data. We seek to reconcile these contractions by conducting simulations of groundwater flow, age and heat transport in a three dimensional model, using an alternative conceptual model, based on geological, thermal, isotope and historical data. We infer flow patterns under modern hydraulic conditions using this new model and present the theoretical maximum groundwater ages under such a flow regime. The model results show that in contrast to previously accepted conceptualizations, most groundwater is discharged in the vicinity of the break-in-slope of topography at the boundary between the piedmont and central plain. Groundwater discharge to the ocean is in contrast small, and in general there are low rates of active flow in the eastern parts of the basin below the central and coastal plain. This conceptualization is more compatible with geochemical and geothermal data than the previous model. Simulated maximum groundwater ages of similar to 1 Myrs below the central and coastal plain indicate that residual groundwater may be retained in the deep parts of the basin since being recharged during the last glacial period or earlier. The groundwater flow system has therefore probably not reached a new equilibrium state with modern-day hydraulic conditions. The previous hypothesis that regional groundwater flow from the piedmont groundwater recharge zone predominantly discharges at the coastline may therefore be false. A more reliable alternative might be to conceptualize deep groundwater below the coastal plains a hydrodynamically stagnant zone, responding gradually to landscape and hydrological change on geologic timescales. This study brings a new and original understanding of the groundwater flow system in an important regional basin, in the context of its geometry and evolution over geological timescales. There are important implications for the sustainability of the ongoing high rates of groundwater extraction in the NCB. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.