Determination of respiratory syncytial virus epidemic seasons by using 95% confidence interval of positivity rates, 2011-2021, Germany

Based on our national outpatient sentinel surveillance, we have developed a novel approach to determine respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemic seasons in Germany by using RSV positivity rate and its lower limit of 95% confidence interval. This method was evaluated retrospectively on nine RSV seasons, and it is also well-suited to describe off-season circulation of RSV in near real time as observed for seasons 2020/21 and 2021/22 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Prospective application is of crucial importance to enable timely actions for health service delivery and prevention.

Automated summary

Based on national outpatient surveillance, a novel approach has been developed to determine RSV epidemic seasons in Germany using the RSV positivity rate and its lower limit of 95% confidence interval. This method has been retrospectively evaluated on nine RSV seasons and is also suitable for describing off-season RSV circulation in near real time during the COVID-19 pandemic. Prospective application is crucial for timely health service delivery and prevention.