Which Findings Should Be Published?

Given a scarcity of journal space, what is the optimal rule for whether an empirical finding should be published? Suppose publications inform the public about a policy-relevant state. Then journals should publish extreme results, meaning ones that move beliefs sufficiently. This optimal rule may take the form of a one-or two-sided test comparing a point estimate to the prior mean, with critical values determined by a cost-benefit analysis. Consideration of future studies may additionally justify the publication of precise null results. If one insists that standard inference remain valid, however, publication must not select on the study's findings.

Automated summary

Given limited journal space, the optimal rule for publishing empirical findings involves focusing on extreme results that can significantly influence beliefs. This rule may involve comparing point estimates to prior means with critical values determined by cost-benefit analysis. Additionally, consideration of future studies may justify the publication of precise null results. If standard inference is to remain valid, publication must not selectively choose findings from studies.