M5 accuracy competition: Results, findings, and conclusions

In this study, we present the results of the M5 Accuracycompetition, which was the first of two parallel challenges in the latest M competition with the aim of advancing the theory and practice of forecasting. The main objective in the M5 Accuracycompetition was to accurately predict 42,840 time series representing the hierarchical unit sales for the largest retail company in the world by revenue, Walmart. The competition required the submission of 30,490 point forecasts for the lowest cross-sectional aggregation level of the data, which could then be summed up accordingly to estimate forecasts for the remaining upward levels. We provide details of the implementation of the M5 Accuracychallenge, as well as the results and best performing methods, and summarize the major findings and conclusions. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings and suggest directions for future research.(c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Institute of Forecasters.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Automated summary

This study presents the results and best methods of the M5 Accuracycompetition, aiming to accurately predict hierarchical unit sales for Walmart. The competition required the submission of point forecasts and provides implementation details, major findings, and suggestions for future research.