Performance-based assessment of permanent displacement of soil slopes using two-dimensional dynamic analysis

In this paper, a performance-based method is suggested to assess the permanent displacement of a slope using two-dimensional dynamic analysis considering both uncertainties in ground motions and basic soil parameters. In the suggested method, the statistics of the permanent displacement is first analyzed at different peak ground acceleration levels through uncertainty propagation analysis, and regression analysis is then used to derive the fragility curve. A seven-step procedure is suggested to implement the suggested method, and a numerical example is used to illustrate the suggested method. For the slope examined in this paper, the performance-based assessment based on one-dimensional model underestimates the mean of the permanent displacement, and the performance-based assessment based on the empirical model overestimates the uncertainty in the permanent displacement. The uncertainty in soil properties can contribute up to 40% to the uncertainty in the permanent displacement at low peak ground acceleration level.

Automated summary

This paper suggests a performance-based method to assess permanent displacement of a slope, considering uncertainties in ground motions and basic soil parameters. The method includes analyzing statistics of permanent displacement at different peak ground acceleration levels and deriving fragility curve through regression analysis. The study shows that soil property uncertainties can contribute up to 40% to the uncertainty in permanent displacement.