Ammonia and Nitric Acid Demands for Fertilizer Use in 2050

Access to nitrogen-based fertilizers is critical to maximize agricultural yield, as nitrogen is the most common rate-limiting nutrient. Nearly all nitrogen-based fertilizers rely on ammonia and nitric acid as feedstocks, and thus the demand for these chemicals is heavily dependent on the global population and food demand. Over the next three decades, the global population will continue to dictate the market size and value for ammonia and nitric acid, which consequently will have a significant impact on our energy infrastructure. Here, we discuss the potential for carbon-free electrocatalytic nitrogen reduction, nitrogen oxidation, and nitrate reduction to meet fertilizer manufacturing demands. We also explore various growth scenarios to predict the 2050 market size and value for ammonia and nitric acid. We highlight that if the current approaches for manufacturing ammonia and nitric acid remain constant, carbon emissions from the production of fixed fertilizer feedstocks could exceed 1300 Mt(CO2eq)/yr, prompting a strong need for green alternatives.

Automated summary

Access to nitrogen-based fertilizers is crucial for maximizing agricultural yield, but the production process contributes significantly to carbon emissions. The market size and value of ammonia and nitric acid will be heavily influenced by the growing global population and food demand over the next three decades. Developing carbon-free technologies for nitrogen and nitrate reduction to meet fertilizer manufacturing demands is essential to address the environmental impact of current production methods.