Journal
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
Volume 214, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107675
Keywords
Lithium-ion battery; time-varying temperature; Arrhenius; Wiener process; remaining useful life; Bayesian framework
Funding
- International Science & Technology Cooperation of China [2019YFE0100200]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [51807108, 52037006, 61703410, 61873175]
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This paper proposes a novel prediction method for remaining useful life (RUL) of lithium-ion battery under time-varying temperature condition based on Arrhenius temperature model and Wiener process. The aging model is developed using maximum likelihood estimation and genetic algorithm, leading to the derivation of probability density function (PDF) of RUL. The effectiveness of the method is verified through a case study, demonstrating higher accuracy and smaller uncertainty.
Time-varying temperature condition has a significant impact on discharge capacity and aging law of lithium-ion battery. Consequently, a novel remaining useful life (RUL) prediction method for lithium-ion battery under timevarying temperature condition is developed in this paper. Firstly, a stochastic degradation rate model based on Arrhenius temperature model is proposed, and an interesting battery capacity conversion path from random temperature condition to reference temperature condition is established. Secondly, the aging model of lithiumion battery under time-varying temperature condition is developed based on Wiener process, and a two-step unbiased estimation method based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) combined with genetic algorithm (GA) is proposed. Next, the random parameter is online updated under Bayesian framework. Then the probability density function (PDF) of the RUL for lithium-ion battery under time-varying temperature condition is derived. Finally, a case study is implemented to verify the effectiveness, and the results show that the proposed prediction method has higher accuracy and smaller uncertainty.
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