Automatic generation of event sequence diagrams for guiding simulation based dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (SIMPRA) of complex systems

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) is a systematic and comprehensive methodology that has been used and refined over the past decades to evaluate the risks associated with complex systems such as nuclear power plants, space missions, chemical plants, and military systems. A critical step in DPRA is generating risk scenarios which are used to enumerate and assess the probability of different outcomes. The classical approach to generating risk scenarios is not, however, sufficient to deal with the complexity of the above-mentioned systems. The primary contribution of this study is in offering a new method for capturing different types of engineering knowledge and using them to automatically generate risk scenarios, presented in the form of generalized event sequence diagrams, for dynamic systems. In this study, guidelines of this new method are explained in detail. In addition, in order to show the procedure of applying the proposed method on a complex system with industrial application, earth observation satellite systems are studied, and a planner is developed for these satellites. This planner is applied to a lunar reconnaissance orbiter satellite, which is an example of a earth observation satellite system, and risk scenarios are generated.

Automated summary

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) is a comprehensive methodology for evaluating risks, and this study offers a new method for automatically generating risk scenarios.