Method selection in short-term eruption forecasting

Modelling spatial population exposure and evacuation clearance time for the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

(2021) A.J. Wild et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Insights into the 9 December 2019 eruption of Whakaari/White Island from analysis of TROPOMI SO2 imagery

(2021) Mike Burton et al.   Science Advances

Thermal Remote Sensing for Global Volcano Monitoring: Experiences From the MIROVA System

(2020) Diego Coppola et al.   Frontiers in Earth Science

Implications of deflation-inflation event models on Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi

(2020) Alyssa N. Anderson et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

From eruption scenarios to probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis: An example of the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

(2020) Pei Shan Ang et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Pilot study of eruption forecasting with muography using convolutional neural network

(2020) Yukihiro Nomura et al.   Scientific Reports

Drumbeat LP `aftershocks' to a failed explosive eruption at Tungurahua Volcano, Ecuador

(2020) S. Butcher et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Automatic precursor recognition and real-time forecasting of sudden explosive volcanic eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand

(2020) D. E. Dempsey et al.   Nature Communications

Event Trees and Epistemic Uncertainty in Long‐Term Volcanic Hazard Assessment of Rift Volcanoes: The Example of Aluto (Central Ethiopia)

(2020) P. Tierz et al.   GEOCHEMISTRY GEOPHYSICS GEOSYSTEMS

A New Volcanic Seismic Signal Descriptor and its Application to a Data Set From the Cotopaxi Volcano

(2020) Noel Perez et al.   IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON GEOSCIENCE AND REMOTE SENSING

Material failure and caldera collapse: Insights from the 2018 Kilauea eruption

(2020) Gabrielle Tepp   EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS

A process-based model of pre-eruption seismicity patterns and its use for eruption forecasting at dormant stratovolcanoes

(2019) Randall A. White et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Intra-eruption forecasting

(2019) Mark S. Bebbington et al.   BULLETIN OF VOLCANOLOGY

Machine-learning error models for approximate solutions to parameterized systems of nonlinear equations

(2019) Brian A. Freno et al.   COMPUTER METHODS IN APPLIED MECHANICS AND ENGINEERING

Mechanisms of Unrest and Eruption at Persistently Restless Volcanoes: Insights from the 2015 eruption of Telica Volcano, Nicaragua

(2019) Diana C. Roman et al.   GEOCHEMISTRY GEOPHYSICS GEOSYSTEMS

Change in seismic attenuation as a long-term precursor of gas-driven eruptions

(2019) Corentin Caudron et al.   GEOLOGY

Seismic activity during the 2013–2015 intereruptive phase at Lascar volcano, Chile

(2019) Ayleen Gaete et al.   GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL

Forecasting Aftershock Activity: 4. Estimating the Maximum Magnitude of Future Aftershocks

(2019) S. V. Baranov et al.   IZVESTIYA-PHYSICS OF THE SOLID EARTH

The 2017–19 activity at Mount Agung in Bali (Indonesia): Intense unrest, monitoring, crisis response, evacuation, and eruption

(2019) D. K. Syahbana et al.   Scientific Reports

Probabilistic Enhancement of the Failure Forecast Method Using a Stochastic Differential Equation and Application to Volcanic Eruption Forecasts

(2019) Andrea Bevilacqua et al.   Frontiers in Earth Science

Livelihoods, Wellbeing and the Risk to Life During Volcanic Eruptions

(2019) Jenni Barclay et al.   Frontiers in Earth Science

Bayesian modelling of marked point processes with incomplete records: volcanic eruptions

(2019) Ting Wang et al.   JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS

Partly cloudy with a chance of lava flows: forecasting volcanic eruptions in the 21st century

(2019) Michael Poland et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH

Statistical Seismology and Communication of the USGS Operational Aftershock Forecasts for the 30 November 2018 Mw 7.1 Anchorage, Alaska, Earthquake

(2019) Andrew J. Michael et al.   SEISMOLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

National-level long-term eruption forecasts by expert elicitation

(2018) Mark S. Bebbington et al.   BULLETIN OF VOLCANOLOGY

Interrogation theory

(2018) Richard Arnold et al.   GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL

What Can We Do to Forecast Tsunami Hazards in the Near Field Given Large Epistemic Uncertainty in Rapid Seismic Source Inversions?

(2018) Rodrigo Cienfuegos et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Machine Learning for Volcano-Seismic Signals: Challenges and Perspectives

(2018) Marielle Malfante et al.   IEEE SIGNAL PROCESSING MAGAZINE

Sensitivity test and ensemble hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei, Italy

(2018) J. Selva et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013–14

(2018) Heather M.N. Wright et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Statistical and Machine Learning forecasting methods: Concerns and ways forward

(2018) Spyros Makridakis et al.   PLoS One

Probabilistic Hazard From Pyroclastic Density Currents in the Neapolitan Area (Southern Italy)

(2018) Laura Sandri et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH

Impact of dataset size and variety on the effectiveness of deep learning and transfer learning for plant disease classification

(2018) Jayme Garcia Arnal Barbedo   COMPUTERS AND ELECTRONICS IN AGRICULTURE

Automatic Classification of Volcano Seismic Signatures

(2018) Marielle Malfante et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH

Communicating model uncertainty for natural hazards: A qualitative systematic thematic review

(2018) Emma E.H. Doyle et al.   International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Detection and Classification of Continuous Volcano-Seismic Signals With Recurrent Neural Networks

(2018) Manuel Titos et al.   IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON GEOSCIENCE AND REMOTE SENSING

Forecasting transitions in monogenetic eruptions using the geologic record

(2017) Gábor Kereszturi et al.   GEOLOGY

Understanding causality and uncertainty in volcanic observations: An example of forecasting eruptive activity on Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

(2017) T.E. Sheldrake et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Automatic identification of rockfalls and volcano-tectonic earthquakes at the Piton de la Fournaise volcano using a Random Forest algorithm

(2017) Clément Hibert et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Using a process-based model of pre-eruptive seismic patterns to forecast evolving eruptive styles at Sinabung Volcano, Indonesia

(2017) Wendy A. McCausland et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

WOVOdat – An online, growing library of worldwide volcanic unrest

(2017) C.G. Newhall et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

A multivariate probabilistic graphical model for real-time volcano monitoring on Mount Etna

(2017) Flavio Cannavò et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH

Short-period volcanic gas precursors to phreatic eruptions: Insights from Poás Volcano, Costa Rica

(2016) J.M. de Moor et al.   EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS

Assessing the likelihood and magnitude of volcanic explosions based on seismic quiescence

(2016) Diana C. Roman et al.   EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS

Using a cross correlation technique to refine the accuracy of the Failure Forecast Method: Application to Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat

(2016) R.O. Salvage et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Performance of the ‘material Failure Forecast Method’ in real-time situations: A Bayesian approach applied on effusive and explosive eruptions

(2016) A. Boué et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Volcano-tectonic earthquakes: A new tool for estimating intrusive volumes and forecasting eruptions

(2016) Randall White et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Ambiguity Attitudes in a Large Representative Sample

(2016) Stephen G. Dimmock et al.   MANAGEMENT SCIENCE

Reconstruction of a phreatic eruption on 27 September 2014 at Ontake volcano, central Japan, based on proximal pyroclastic density current and fallout deposits

(2016) Fukashi Maeno et al.   EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE

Temporal changes in thermal waters related to volcanic activity of Tokachidake Volcano, Japan: implications for forecasting future eruptions

(2015) Ryo Takahashi et al.   BULLETIN OF VOLCANOLOGY

Short-term volcanic hazard assessment through Bayesian inference: retrospective application to the Pinatubo 1991 volcanic crisis

(2015) Rosa Sobradelo et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Using volcanic tremor for eruption forecasting at White Island volcano (Whakaari), New Zealand

(2015) Lauriane Chardot et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Dynamic Uncertainty in Cost-Benefit Analysis of Evacuation Prior to a Volcanic Eruption

(2015) Mark Bebbington et al.   Mathematical Geosciences

Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence

(2015) Zoubin Ghahramani   NATURE

Decision Making Under Objective Risk Conditions–a Review of Cognitive and Emotional Correlates, Strategies, Feedback Processing, and External Influences

(2015) Johannes Schiebener et al.   NEUROPSYCHOLOGY REVIEW

Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis

(2015) Gilberto Montibeller et al.   RISK ANALYSIS

Heterogeneity: The key to failure forecasting

(2015) Jérémie Vasseur et al.   Scientific Reports

Self-similar rupture implied by scaling properties of volcanic earthquakes occurring during the 2004-2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington

(2015) Rebecca M. Harrington et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH

Real-time eruption forecasting using the material Failure Forecast Method with a Bayesian approach

(2015) A. Boué et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH

Determining change points in data completeness for the Holocene eruption record

(2014) Stuart Mead et al.   BULLETIN OF VOLCANOLOGY

Regional controls on volcano seismicity along the Aleutian arc

(2014) Helena Buurman et al.   GEOCHEMISTRY GEOPHYSICS GEOSYSTEMS

Long-term forecasting of volcanic explosivity

(2014) M. S. Bebbington   GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL

Volcanic hot spot detection from optical multispectral remote sensing data using artificial neural networks

(2014) Alessandro Piscini et al.   GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL

Magma displacements under insular volcanic fields, applications to eruption forecasting: El Hierro, Canary Islands, 2011-2013

(2014) A. Garcia et al.   GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL

Influences on the variability of eruption sequences and style transitions in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

(2014) Gábor Kereszturi et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Uncertainty and decision making: Volcanic crisis scenarios

(2014) Emma E.H. Doyle et al.   International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Assessing probabilistic forecasts of volcanic eruption onsets

(2013) Mark S. Bebbington   BULLETIN OF VOLCANOLOGY

Forecasting the duration of volcanic eruptions: an empirical probabilistic model

(2013) L. S. Gunn et al.   BULLETIN OF VOLCANOLOGY

Testing the accelerating moment release (AMR) hypothesis in areas of high stress

(2013) Aurélie Guilhem et al.   GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL

A model for developing best practice volcano monitoring: a combined threat assessment, consultation and network effectiveness approach

(2013) Craig A. Miller et al.   NATURAL HAZARDS

A volcanic activity alert-level system for aviation: review of its development and application in Alaska

(2013) Marianne Guffanti et al.   NATURAL HAZARDS

Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales

(2012) Warner Marzocchi et al.   BULLETIN OF VOLCANOLOGY

Forecasting Earthquakes: The RELM Test

(2012) Michael Sachs et al.   COMPUTING IN SCIENCE & ENGINEERING

Effects of data set features on the performances of classification algorithms

(2012) Ohbyung Kwon et al.   EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS

The correlation between run-up and repose times of volcanic eruptions

(2012) Luigi Passarelli et al.   GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL

Precursory inflation of shallow magma reservoirs at west Sunda volcanoes detected by InSAR

(2012) Estelle Chaussard et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

The scientific management of volcanic crises

(2012) Warner Marzocchi et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Constraints on magma processes, subsurface conditions, and total volatile flux at Bezymianny Volcano in 2007–2010 from direct and remote volcanic gas measurements

(2012) Taryn López et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Degassing of CO2, SO2, and H2S associated with the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

(2012) Cynthia Werner et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Paroxysmal activity at Stromboli: lessons from the past

(2011) Antonella Bertagnini et al.   BULLETIN OF VOLCANOLOGY

Combining long- and short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

(2011) Laura Sandri et al.   BULLETIN OF VOLCANOLOGY

Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy

(2011) Jacopo Selva et al.   BULLETIN OF VOLCANOLOGY

Failed magmatic eruptions: late-stage cessation of magma ascent

(2011) Seth C. Moran et al.   BULLETIN OF VOLCANOLOGY

The IPCC AR5 guidance note on consistent treatment of uncertainties: a common approach across the working groups

(2011) Michael D. Mastrandrea et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Forward likelihood-based predictive approach for space-time point processes

(2011) Marcello Chiodi et al.   ENVIRONMETRICS

The science of subjectivity

(2011) Andrew Curtis   GEOLOGY

Imaging the dynamics of magma propagation using radiated seismic intensity

(2011) B. Taisne et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Forecasting volcanic eruptions and other material failure phenomena: An evaluation of the failure forecast method

(2011) Andrew F. Bell et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Likelihood-Based Tests for Evaluating Space-Rate-Magnitude Earthquake Forecasts

(2010) J. D. Zechar et al.   BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA

Broadband seismic monitoring of active volcanoes using deterministic and stochastic approaches

(2010) Hiroyuki Kumagai et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

Dynamics of uncertainty in geological interpretation

(2010) Debbie Polson et al.   JOURNAL OF THE GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY

A route to more tractable expert advice

(2010) Willy Aspinall   NATURE

The Effects of Presenting Imprecise Probabilities in Intelligence Forecasts

(2010) Nathan F. Dieckmann et al.   RISK ANALYSIS

Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise ‘Ruaumoko’

(2009) Jan Lindsay et al.   BULLETIN OF VOLCANOLOGY

Improving communication during volcanic crises on small, vulnerable islands

(2009) W.J. McGuire et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Mapping block-and-ash flow hazards based on Titan 2D simulations: a case study from Mt. Taranaki, NZ

(2009) Jonathan N. Procter et al.   NATURAL HAZARDS

The VOL-CALPUFF model for atmospheric ash dispersal: 1. Approach and physical formulation

(2008) S. Barsotti et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius

(2008) A. Neri et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Classification of seismic signals at Villarrica volcano (Chile) using neural networks and genetic algorithms

(2008) Gloria Curilem et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

SO2 flux from Stromboli during the 2007 eruption: Results from the FLAME network and traverse measurements

(2008) M.R. Burton et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Volcanic hazards to airports

(2008) Marianne Guffanti et al.   NATURAL HAZARDS

Seismogenic lavas and explosive eruption forecasting

(2008) Y. Lavallée et al.   NATURE

Towards forecasting volcanic eruptions using seismic noise

(2008) Florent Brenguier et al.   Nature Geoscience