Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Yoshio Kajitani, Michinori Hatayama
Summary: This study combines mobility statistics and business census data to study the impact of mobility reductions on the effective reproduction number in the eight Japanese prefectures with the highest COVID-19 infection rates. Results show that reducing mobility in the hospitality industry is slightly more effective in controlling the pandemic compared to general business activities. To achieve a reduction in the effective reproduction number to one or less, a 20%-35% reduction in weekly mobility is required, depending on the region.
Article
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
G. Nakamura, B. Grammaticos, C. Deroulers, M. Badoual
Summary: COVID-19 has been a major player in the global health crisis of 2020, with high prevalence of mild cases leading to underreporting and difficulty in accurately estimating the crude mortality rate, but using a simple model provides estimates of epidemiological parameters.
CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Martijn J. Hoogeveen, Aloys C. M. Kroes, Ellen K. Hoogeveen
Summary: The study reveals that in the Netherlands, a country with a temperate climate, the seasonality of COVID-19 is closely related to environmental factors and mobility trends. The combined mobility and environmental model presented in the study can effectively predict the seasonality of COVID-19.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Sachiko Kodera, Keigo Hikita, Essam A. Rashed, Akimasa Hirata
Summary: During epidemics, estimating the effective reproduction number (ERN) associated with infectious diseases is challenging. In this study, the researchers investigated the correlation between mobility at transit stations and the ERN using data from three urban prefectures in Japan. They found a linear correlation and determined the optimal time windows for this correlation. Additionally, the study revealed that the mobility-adjusted ERN of new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was higher than that of the original Wuhan strain.
JOURNAL OF URBAN HEALTH-BULLETIN OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF MEDICINE
(2023)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Junko Kurita, Yoshiyuki Sugishita, Tamie Sugawara, Yasushi Ohkusa
Summary: During the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, voluntary restrictions against going out were implemented and the associations of Apple mobility data in predicting the effective reproduction number R(t) were investigated. The study found that reducing the number of trips by 10% can achieve herd immunity and prevent a re-emergence of the outbreak.
JMIR PUBLIC HEALTH AND SURVEILLANCE
(2021)
Article
Health Care Sciences & Services
Joaquin Salas
Summary: The study introduces a data-driven approach to real-time monitoring of the effective reproduction number R-t of COVID-19. Based on self-reported onset of symptoms, the method could serve as a foundation for determining useful epidemic tracking indicators.
STATISTICAL METHODS IN MEDICAL RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Dylan Parker, Oleg Pianykh
Summary: Research shows that modeling SEIR transmission rate trajectory using mobility-driven regularization can generate more accurate and unbiased epidemic forecasts, and estimate a highly interpretable relationship between mobility and transmission rate.
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Mohamed Haouari, Mariem Mhiri
Summary: This paper presents an approach for predicting the number of deaths from COVID-19 by modeling the number of infected cases and inferring the number of deaths as well as active cases. The proposed method is empirically assessed on official data from Qatar, showing good accuracy in predicting the number of deaths.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Mechanical
Shidong Zhai, Hui Gao, Guoqiang Luo, Junli Tao
Summary: This paper introduces a multigroup COVID-19 model with immunity and discusses how to design control strategies in cases where the basic reproduction number is greater than one. By reducing the number of exposed individuals and increasing those receiving treatment, the disease can be eradicated in some groups.
NONLINEAR DYNAMICS
(2021)
Article
Mathematics
Rana Yousif, Aref Jeribi, Saad Al-Azzawi
Summary: Since the identification of new mutations in the coronavirus, the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide has increased, leading to a new wave of the pandemic. This study used a fractional-order SEIRD model with a Caputo derivative to investigate the spread of COVID-19. The analysis included the characteristics of the system, such as solution boundedness, existence, uniqueness, non-negativity, equilibrium points, and basic reproduction number. The simulation results showed that the current wave of virus spread will continue for the next few months, with an increasing number of infections. The comparison of different fractional-order derivatives indicated that the Caputo derivative better aligned with real data. Moreover, the obtained reproduction number suggested the need for further control measures.
Article
Medicine, General & Internal
Katsuma Hayashi, Taishi Kayano, Asami Anzai, Marie Fujimoto, Natalie Linton, Misaki Sasanami, Ayako Suzuki, Tetsuro Kobayashi, Kanako Otani, Masato Yamauchi, Motoi Suzuki, Hiroshi Nishiura
Summary: This study investigated the effectiveness of public health and social measures (PHSM) against COVID-19 in Japan and found that a state of emergency (SoE) can substantially reduce the effective reproduction number (R-t), especially in the presence of highly transmissible variants. No single intervention was identified as the sole cause of reducing R-t to below 1.
FRONTIERS IN MEDICINE
(2022)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Raghid Bsat, Hiam Chemaitelly, Peter Coyle, Patrick Tang, Mohammad R. Hasan, Zaina Al Kanaani, Einas Al Kuwari, Adeel A. Butt, Andrew Jeremijenko, Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal, Ali Nizar Latif, Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik, Gheyath K. Nasrallah, Fatiha M. Benslimane, Hebah A. Al Khatib, Hadi M. Yassine, Mohamed G. Al Kuwari, Hamad Eid Al Romaihi, Mohamed H. Al-Thani, Abdullatif Al Khal, Roberto Bertollini, Laith J. Abu-Raddad, Houssein H. Ayoub
Summary: The study examined Rt estimations in Qatar to guide the national COVID-19 response, finding that different estimation methods produced consistent and comparable results. These estimates were correlated with trends in infection incidence, and the model-based estimations strongly correlated with empirical estimations, highlighting the importance of Rt estimations in guiding pandemic responses.
JOURNAL OF GLOBAL HEALTH
(2022)
Article
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Mohamed Amouch, Noureddine Karim
Summary: This study introduces a new epidemiological mathematical model focusing on the transmissibility of different symptoms of COVID-19, calculating the basic reproduction number and examining the local stability of disease-free equilibrium. Numerical simulations were used to illustrate the findings, as well as analyzing the impact of vaccination in the model.
CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS
(2021)
Article
Virology
Yukinori Akiyama, Kyoya Sakashita, Masayasu Arihara, Yusuke Kimura, Katsuya Komatsu, Takeshi Mikami, Nobuhiro Mikuni
Summary: This study conducted an analysis of COVID-19 cases in Hokkaido, Japan, finding that peaks in reproduction numbers preceded signs of cluster infections, and there was a strong negative correlation between the kinematic viscosity of atmospheric air and reproduction numbers. The study suggests that meteorological factors could help predict COVID-19 infection clusters in the future.
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Koen Deforche, Jurgen Vercauteren, Viktor Muller, Anne-Mieke Vandamme
Summary: The COVID-19 lockdown in Western countries reduced the time-varying basic reproduction number (R-t) to below one. The study found that an increased time spent at home and decreased mobility related to retail and recreation were the main factors in reducing transmission during lockdown. Pre-lockdown behavioral changes also played a role in reducing transmission.
Article
Biology
William S. Hart, Sam Abbott, Akira Endo, Joel Hellewell, Elizabeth Miller, Nick Andrews, Philip K. Maini, Sebastian Funk, Robin N. Thompson
Summary: This study provides updated estimates of the generation time for SARS-CoV-2 infection using data from a household study conducted in the UK from March to November 2020. The findings suggest that the transmission risk and symptom development are linked, and the generation time varies during different stages of the pandemic.
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Ciara V. McCarthy, Oscar O'Mara, Edwin van Leeuwen, Mark Jit, Frank Sandmann
Summary: This study evaluates the impact of different COVID-19 vaccination strategies in semi-enclosed settings such as prisons. The results show that vaccinating individuals in prison before an outbreak can significantly reduce COVID-19 cases, loss of quality-adjusted life-years, and deaths.
Article
Infectious Diseases
Yuyang Chen, Naizhe Li, Jose Lourenco, Lin Wang, Bernard Cazelles, Lu Dong, Bingying Li, Yang Liu, Mark jit, Nikos Bosse, Sam Abbott, Raman Velayudhan, Annelies Wilder-Smith, Huaiyu Tian, Oliver J. Bradyt
Summary: COVID-19-related disruption has significantly reduced the incidence of dengue in southeast Asia and Latin America in 2020. Measures such as school closures and reduced time spent in non-residential areas are strongly associated with reduced dengue risk.
LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Rachael Pung, Josh A. Firth, Lewis G. Spurgin, Vernon J. Lee, Adam J. Kucharski
Summary: In this study, the authors simulate COVID-19 outbreaks on a contact network derived from digital data collected on cruise ships and find that combinations of control measures, particularly vaccination and rapid antigen testing, are important for mitigating outbreaks. They also investigate the impact of social contacts in different activity settings on interventions required to control Delta variant outbreaks and find that vaccination coverage and rapid antigen testing have a larger effect than mask mandates alone.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Medicine, General & Internal
Amy Gimma, James Munday, Kerry L. M. Wong, Pietro Coletti, Kevin van Zandvoort, Kiesha Prem, Petra Klepac, G. James Rubin, Sebastian Funk, W. John Edmunds, Christopher Jarvis
Summary: This study conducted a repeated cross-sectional survey to measure contact patterns in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings show significant changes in social contacts, with lower contact rates during periods of lockdown compared to periods with fewer restrictions. The use of face coverings remained high throughout the study. The data collected provides valuable information for statistical analyses and mathematical modeling of COVID-19 and other diseases.
Article
Infectious Diseases
Gwenan M. Knight, Thi Mui Pham, James Stimson, Sebastian Funk, Yalda Jafari, Diane Pople, Stephanie Evans, Mo Yin, Colin S. Brown, Alex Bhattacharya, Russell Hope, Malcolm G. Semple, Jonathan M. Read, Ben S. Cooper, Julie V. Robotham
Summary: This study found that SARS-CoV-2 transmission in hospitals contributed to approximately a fifth of identified cases of hospitalized COVID-19 during the first wave in England, but accounted for less than 1% of all infections in the country. Using time to symptom onset from admission as a detection method likely missed more than 60% of hospital-acquired infections.
BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(2022)
Correction
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Emily S. Nightingale, Sam Abbott, Timothy W. Russell, Rachel Lowe, Graham F. Medley, Oliver J. Brady
Article
Infectious Diseases
Akira Endo, Yusuke Asai, Taichi Tajima, Mio Endo, Takayuki Akiyama, Nobuaki Matsunaga, Haruhiko Ishioka, Shinya Tsuzuki, Norio Ohmagari
Summary: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on microbial infections and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has not been fully described. This study used data from the Japan Surveillance for Infection Prevention and Healthcare Epidemiology (J-SIPHE) to assess changes in AMR-related metrics before and after the start of the pandemic. The study found a decrease in microbial infections in 2020, driven by reduced bed occupancy, but the incidence remained constant or slightly increased after adjusting for bed occupancy. The incidence of Streptococcus pneumoniae decreased significantly from April 2020, likely due to non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19. Antimicrobial use showed a weak increasing trend, while hand sanitizer use in medical institutions increased by about 50% in 2020 compared to 2019.
JOURNAL OF INFECTION AND CHEMOTHERAPY
(2023)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Oliver Wegehaupt, Akira Endo, Anna Vassall
Summary: Different individuals show varying levels of secondary transmission, which is quantified by the dispersion parameter k. COVID-19 has a low k value, indicating marked heterogeneity in transmission potential. Preventing superspreading events requires comprehensive measures.
Article
Microbiology
Noriko Kitamura, Akira Endo, Lien T. Le, Trieu B. Nguyen, Hung T. Do, Michiko Toizumi, Lay-Myint Yoshida, Yoshio Mori, Samuel Rose, Androulla Efstratiou, Norman K. Fry, David Litt
Summary: This study explored methods to accurately predict population immunity and TNT-derived anti-toxin titres from ELISA anti-toxoid results. It was found that ELISA measurement on DBS samples showed a good diagnostic performance compared to TNT. Testing a subset of sera by TNT combined with ROC analysis or a multiple imputation approach helps to adjust ELISA thresholds or values to assess population susceptibility more accurately.
JOURNAL OF MEDICAL MICROBIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Su Myat Han, Alexis Robert, Shingo Masuda, Takahiro Yasaka, Satoshi Kanda, Kazuhiri Komori, Nobuo Saito, Motoi Suzuki, Akira Endo, Marc Baguelin, Koya Ariyoshi
Summary: Seasonal influenza outbreaks are still a significant public health concern, particularly for high-risk groups. A study conducted in Kamigoto Island, Japan analyzed surveillance data to identify the drivers of influenza transmission during outbreaks. The study found that preschool and school-aged children were most susceptible to influenza, with consistently high relative illness ratios. The study also highlighted the importance of achieving high vaccine coverage throughout the island, especially in densely populated areas.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2023)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Nathan Tran, Akihiro Nishi, Lindsay E. Young, Akira Endo, William G. Cumberland, Sean D. Young
Summary: Retention in healthcare and health behavior is a critical issue, especially in the context of diseases like HIV where disparities already exist. In order to address this, it is important to quantify the racial/ethnic disparity in retention and identify mediating factors to inform intervention design. The present study assesses the racial/ethnic disparity in retention and identifies the role of participants' perceived health in HIV-related interventions.
PREVENTIVE MEDICINE REPORTS
(2023)
Article
Immunology
Hiroaki Murayama, Carl A. B. Pearson, Sam Abbott, Fuminari Miura, Sung-mok Jung, Elizabeth Fearon, Sebastian Funk, Akira Endo
Summary: The global outbreak of mpox in 2022 has led to a decline in cases in many affected countries. A mathematical model suggests that the infection-derived herd immunity threshold can be reached and lead to a decline in mpox epidemics, with less than 1% of sexually active men who have sex with men being infected regardless of interventions or behavioral changes. The observed decline in cases may be explained by the accumulation of infection-derived immunity in highly heterogeneous sexual contact networks among men who have sex with men, rather than interventions or behavioral changes.
JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(2023)
Article
Medicine, General & Internal
Chung-Shun Wong, Tzu-Ting Chen, Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov, Ping-Jen Hu, Mai-Szu Wu, Mei-Yi Wu
Summary: This study aims to estimate the odds ratio of sepsis preceding the need for first-time dialysis. A case-only study was conducted using claims records from Taiwan's national health insurance database, and it was found that patients with sepsis had a higher likelihood of requiring dialysis, especially during the first week after sepsis.
JOURNAL OF CLINICAL MEDICINE
(2023)
Article
Immunology
Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov, Hao-Yuan Cheng, Natalie M. Linton, Luis Ponce, Shu-Wan Jian, Hsien-Ho Lin
Summary: In May 2021, Taiwan experienced an unprecedented surge of COVID-19 cases. However, the government was able to control the epidemic without a complete lockdown by implementing strict control measures. By reducing the effective reproduction number, the public health and social measures adopted by the Taiwan government proved to be effective in preventing the further spread of the disease.
EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(2022)
