4.8 Article

Climate change impacts plant carbon balance, increasing mean future carbon use efficiency but decreasing total forest extent at dry range edges

Journal

ECOLOGY LETTERS
Volume 25, Issue 2, Pages 498-508

Publisher

WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/ele.13945

Keywords

carbon use efficiency; climate change; forest range limits; temperature dependence of respiration; vegetation model

Categories

Funding

  1. National Institute of Food and Agriculture [2018-67012-31496]
  2. UC Laboratory Fees Research Program [LFR-20-652-467]
  3. Division of Environmental Biology [2003205]
  4. Direct For Biological Sciences [2003205] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
  5. Division Of Environmental Biology [2003205] Funding Source: National Science Foundation

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Carbon use efficiency (CUE) in plants varies with climate and species composition, and its response to climate change remains uncertain due to respiratory costs (R-a) at high temperatures. Using a validated plant physiological model, we predict increases in mean growing season CUE in core forested areas under future climate scenarios, but forest extent may decrease at dry range edges due to uncertainty in R-a. Our findings emphasize the nuanced and competing mechanisms controlling future forest resilience.
Carbon use efficiency (CUE) represents how efficient a plant is at translating carbon gains through gross primary productivity (GPP) into net primary productivity (NPP) after respiratory costs (R-a). CUE varies across space with climate and species composition, but how CUE will respond to climate change is largely unknown due to uncertainty in R-a at novel high temperatures. We use a plant physiological model validated against global CUE observations and LIDAR vegetation canopy height data and find that model-predicted decreases in CUE are diagnostic of transitions from forests to shrubland at dry range edges. Under future climate scenarios, we show mean growing season CUE increases in core forested areas, but forest extent decreases at dry range edges, with substantial uncertainty in absolute CUE due to uncertainty in R-a. Our results highlight that future forest resilience is nuanced and controlled by multiple competing mechanisms.

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