Extreme precipitation time trends in Ontario, 1960-2010

The impact of climate change on the behaviour of intensity-duration-frequency curves is critical to the estimation of design storms, and thus to the safe design of drainage infrastructure. The present study develops a regional time trend methodology that detects the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation from 1960 to 2010. The regional time trend linear regression method is fitted to different durations of annual maximum precipitation intensities derived from multiple sites in Ontario, Canada. The results show the relationship between climate change and increased extreme precipitation in this province. The regional trend analysis demonstrates, under nonstationary conditions arising from climate change, that the intensity of extreme precipitation increased decennially between 1.25% for the 30-min storm and 1.82% for the 24-h storm. A comparison of the results with a regional Mann-Kendall test validates the found regional time-trend results. The results are employed to extrapolate the intensity-duration-frequency curves temporally and spatially for future decades across the province. The results of the regional time trend assessment help with the establishment of new safety margins for infrastructure design in Ontario. Copyright (C) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.