Article
Business, Finance
Chuang Deng, Xiuyi Zhao, Man Xu
Summary: This study uses TVP-SV-VAR and TVP-FAVAR models to evaluate the impact of quantitative and price-based monetary policies on China's financial cycle. The results show that quantitative monetary policy boosts the financial cycle, while price-based monetary policy has a stronger long-term negative effect to restrain boom and control financial risk.
FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Studies
Guoheng Hu, Shan Liu, Guo Wu, Peng Hu, Ruiqi Li, Liujie Chen
Summary: This study investigates the time-varying impacts of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on China's commodity prices using the TVP-SV-VAR model. The findings reveal that after 2019, economic policy uncertainty has a more significant impact on commodity prices compared to geopolitical risk.
Article
Business, Finance
Houjian Li, Qingman Li, Xinya Huang, Lili Guo
Summary: Green bond shocks and economic policy uncertainty are crucial factors influencing macroeconomic development and green finance. This paper uses the TVP-VAR framework to analyze monthly data from China to investigate the dynamic impact of green bond shocks and economic policy uncertainty on carbon prices. The results reveal that economic policy uncertainty and green bond shocks have significant time-varying and short-term effects on carbon prices. Additionally, there is heterogeneity in the impact of economic policy uncertainty and green bond shocks on carbon prices in Hubei and Guangdong. The robustness of the results is tested using the Bayesian VAR model. Based on the findings, policy suggestions are proposed, including improving the stability of economic policies, implementing green bond support policies, and expediting the development of a national unified carbon emission trading market.
INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Studies
Cai Yang, Zibo Niu, Wang Gao
Summary: This paper investigates the time-varying influence of geopolitical risks (GPR) and trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on commodity prices using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility. The findings suggest that TPU and GPR have significant time-varying effects on the commodity market, with different impacts in short-term and medium-to-long-term periods. Additionally, there is heterogeneity in the response of different commodity prices to external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
Article
Business, Finance
Chuang Deng, Jian Wu
Summary: This study uses SV-TVP-VAR model to examine the dynamic effects of different types of monetary policy instruments on macroeconomic downside risks. The study finds that extreme crises lead to low peaks and thick tails in the economic growth distributions, increasing macroeconomic downside risks. Quantitative monetary policy effectively mitigates macroeconomic downside risks in the short term. Price-based monetary policy plays a role in curbing excessive economic prosperity and reducing macroeconomic downside risks in the medium term, and its regulatory effect is more sustainable.
FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Yuegang Song, Yanling Yang, Jianzhong Yu, Zhichao Zhao
Summary: The study shows that economic policy uncertainty has a significant impact on the implementation of monetary policy, with the price-based monetary policy instrument having a more significant counter-cyclical effect.
FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH
(2021)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Deheng Zhou, Abu Bakkar Siddik, Lili Guo, Houjian Li
Summary: This paper collects monthly data from January 2005 to April 2021 in the United States and examines the time-varying relationship between climate policy uncertainty, oil prices, and renewable energy consumption using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-VAR) model. The study also analyzes the dynamic impact of climate policy uncertainty on five types of renewable energy consumption. The results show that the relationship between these variables is not constant over time, with climate policy uncertainty influencing both oil prices and total renewable energy consumption in the short and long term.
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Guoheng Hu, Shan Liu
Summary: The research shows that global economic policy uncertainty has a significant short-term negative impact on China's export trade, especially during the pandemic. To maintain stable growth in export trade, China needs to strengthen pandemic control, economic risk monitoring, and continue to implement multilateral free trade agreements.
FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH
(2021)
Article
Business, Finance
Jianbai Huang, Xuesong Dong, Jinyu Chen, Meirui Zhong
Summary: Oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty have complex and changing effects on the precious metal market, showing different trends and correlations over time. In terms of transmission channels, news uncertainty and inflation uncertainty are the most significant influencing factors. During major economic crises or emergencies, evidence of overreactions in the precious metal markets may exist.
INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS & FINANCE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Studies
Jihong Xiao, Hong Liu
Summary: This paper investigates the impact of different uncertainty measures on oil market fear using the oil implied volatility index (OVX). The empirical results show that the impact of climate policy uncertainty (CPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and equity market volatility (EMV) on OVX is time-varying and heterogeneous due to the different information content contained in these uncertainty measures. Specifically, CPU has become increasingly important for triggering oil market fear since the recent Paris Agreement. During the COVID-19 pandemic, CPU, EPU, and EMV, rather than GPR, play a prominent role in increasing oil market fear.
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Junli Cheng, Feng Lin
Summary: Income inequality in China has worsened since the 1970s, with urban-rural income disparity playing a significant role. Urbanization policy and monetary policy are important tools for the Chinese government to address this issue. Research has shown that the impact of urban-rural income inequality on economic growth is time-varying, initially promoting growth but later hindering it. Currently, urbanization helps alleviate inequality and promotes growth, while loose monetary policy exacerbates inequality and negatively affects long-term growth. It is suggested that policy rebalancing, such as proactive urbanization policy and prudent monetary policy, should be considered to ensure the sustainability of economic development.
Article
Business, Finance
Hao Wang, Ning Xu, Haiyan Yin, Hao Ji
Summary: This research investigates the role of China's monetary policy in maintaining financial stability after crises in the 21st century. The study finds that the scale of social financing, stock market performance, and financial deepening in China have significant influences on financial stability. Both quantitative and price-based monetary policies, especially in the short term, can promote financial stability, with quantitative policy being more effective and becoming the main policy tool in China.
PACIFIC-BASIN FINANCE JOURNAL
(2022)
Article
Economics
Yoichi Tsuchiya
Summary: This study examines the interval forecasts for inflation and growth made by the European Central Bank (ECB) and finds that the actual coverage is often larger than expected, with no clear relationship to economic uncertainty. However, the actual coverage of the 7-month-ahead interval forecast for growth declines if financial market uncertainty increases.
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND POLICY
(2022)
Article
Business, Finance
Riza Demirer, David Gabauer, Rangan Gupta, Qiang Ji
Summary: This paper examines the role of monetary policy in driving connectedness patterns in speculative activities in financial markets, finding that unconventional monetary policy increases the connectedness of speculative activities while the stock market generally serves as the main transmitter. Additionally, the study shows that monetary policy drives gold and financial assets to serve as net transmitters of speculative shocks to other markets.
RESEARCH IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AND FINANCE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Roni Bhowmik, Qasim Raza Syed, Nicholas Apergis, Andrew A. Alola, Zeyu Gai
Summary: The study examines the relationship between unemployment and environmental degradation, proposing the Environmental Phillips Curve hypothesis. It finds that EPC does not hold in the short run but does in the long run. Additionally, monetary policy uncertainty increases CO2 emissions, while fiscal policy uncertainty decreases emissions in both the short and long run.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
(2022)