MaxEnt modeling to predict the current and future distribution of Clerodendrum infortunatum L. under climate change scenarios in Dehradun district, India

The present study used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the potential distribution of Clerodendrum infortunatum L. under current climatic conditions and future distribution under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, version 4) for 2050 and 2070 in Dehradun district, India. C. infortunatum L. is native shrub species used in the traditional medicinal system in India due to antioxidant, antimicrobial, anti-malaria, anthelmintic, and analgesic properties. Results showed that the MaxEnt model was accurate, with the area under ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) being 0.837 with precipitation of coldest quarter and elevation as major contributing variables to the model. The study found that areas totaling 200.4 km(2) are currently highly suitable for C. infortunatum L., which will decrease by 56.9 km(2) by 2070 in the RCP 2.6 scenario and to 23.7 km(2) by 2070 in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Prediction of the suitable habitat for the species under climate change scenarios could help decision-makers understand the distribution of the species and prepare strategies for its scientific management.

Automated summary

The study used the MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution of Clerodendrum infortunatum L. in Dehradun district, India, under current and future climate scenarios. Results showed that precipitation of coldest quarter and elevation were major contributing variables to the model, and suitable habitat for the species is expected to decrease in the future.