Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
F. Ragone, F. Bouchet
Summary: The lack of statistics in climate models hinders the analysis of extreme events, as direct sampling is not feasible due to computational costs. By using rare event algorithms, we can improve the statistics of extreme events in state-of-the-art climate models. Our study on extreme warm summers and heatwaves over France and Scandinavia shows that extreme warm summers are associated with specific hemispheric teleconnection patterns, with the most extreme summers linked to rare subseasonal heatwaves.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Editorial Material
Environmental Sciences
Geert Jan Van Oldenborgh, Michael F. Wehner, Robert Vautard, Friederike E. L. Otto, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Peter A. Stott, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew
Summary: As global warming continues, heatwaves become more frequent and intense. However, regional and local factors play a significant role in determining heatwave trends. While climate models can simulate heatwaves reasonably well, temperature variability in some regions does not align with global warming. This poses a major scientific challenge in reliably attributing and projecting heatwave changes, particularly in areas where the simulation of moisture budget, land surface changes, short-lived forcers, and soil moisture interactions is inadequate.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
N. Klaider, S. Raveh-Rubin
Summary: This study quantifies the relationship between midlatitude cyclones and cold extremes, finding that upper potential vorticity anomalies dominate cold extremes in midlatitudes, while slantwise-descending dry intrusions dominate extremes in subtropics and even tropics.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Physics, Multidisciplinary
Vera Melinda Galfi, Valerio Lucarini
Summary: Extreme events provide insights into climate dynamics and understanding them is crucial for mitigating the impact of climate change. By applying large deviation theory to an Earth system model, researchers defined the climatology of persistent heatwaves and cold spells in key geographical regions, and assessed the impact of increased CO2 concentration on these anomalies. They also showed that high impact events in 2010 were associated with exceptional atmospheric patterns, encoded in the natural variability of the climate, proposing an approximate formula for return times of large and persistent temperature fluctuations.
PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Vittal Hari, Subimal Ghosh, Wei Zhang, Rohini Kumar
Summary: A new study reveals that the occurrence of summer heatwaves in India is influenced by the large scale atmospheric circulation associated with the Pacific Meridional Mode. The study identifies a significant link between the positive phase of the PMM and increased intensity and duration of heatwaves in North Central India. The findings also suggest that future heatwaves could become even more intense due to anthropogenic warming, which has important implications for mitigation and adaptation strategies.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Yoshinao Matsuba, Takenori Shimozono, Yoshimitsu Tajima
Summary: This study investigated the extreme wave characteristics in Eastern Japan following two successive extreme typhoons, Faxai and Hagibis. The results of observations, surveys, and numerical simulations indicated that variations in runup heights were primarily attributed to alongshore variations of beach slope. Local high runup during Faxai was caused by concentrations of incident short waves, while extreme runup during Hagibis was contributed by trapped infragravity waves on the coastal bathymetry.
COASTAL ENGINEERING
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Tukaram Zore, Kiranmayi Landu, Partha Pratim Gogoi, Velu Vinoj
Summary: The study reveals that tropical intraseasonal oscillations have a significant modulating effect on heatwave occurrence in India, with the ER wave having the most pronounced impact on the frequency and duration of heatwaves in the study region. The MJO also plays a region-specific role in influencing heatwave frequency.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jonathan M. Wilkinson, Robert Neal
Summary: Through analyzing data from 2010 to 2019, it was found that the largest and longest-lasting lightning outbreaks in summer are associated with three specific weather patterns, two of which have a strong southerly flow influence and the third is a low-pressure system over the UK. In winter, lightning outbreaks are associated with deeper low-pressure systems, higher pressure gradients, and strong winds in four dominant weather patterns, while in spring lightning mainly occurs in smaller systems.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jonathan Lala, Juan Bazo, Vaibhav Anand, Paul Block
Summary: In the past decade, the innovation in disaster risk management has emphasized standardized forecast-based action and financing protocols to shift relief funds from recovery to preparedness, reducing losses in lives and property. This study examines the impact of forecast methodologies, performance metrics, and risk aversion on optimal decision-making in early action protocols. The results indicate that the relative benefit of actions at different lead times is key in determining optimal decisions, more so than the forecast methodology and risk aversion levels.
CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Qian Yu, Yanyan Wang, Na Li
Summary: Evaluating extreme flood disasters is essential for making decisions in flood management. Existing assessments fail to consider comprehensive impacts from social, economic, and environmental aspects. This study develops an indicator system and proposes evaluation methods for social, economic, and environmental consequences. The results from analyzing two extreme flood scenarios in the Jingjiang Flood Diversion District show that the floods have significant impacts on the area.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Rachel H. White, Kai Kornhuber, Olivia Martius, Volkmar Wirth
Summary: In recent years, there have been numerous high-impact weather extremes associated with atmospheric circulation patterns known as Rossby waves. Accurately projecting the changes of these extreme events under climate change and predicting them on seasonal-to-subseasonal time scales is of great interest, but remains challenging due to model biases and lack of fundamental theories.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Lei Gu, Jie Chen, Jiabo Yin, Louise J. Slater, Hui-Min Wang, Qiang Guo, Maoyuan Feng, Hui Qin, Tongtiegang Zhao
Summary: Under global warming, floods and hot extremes occur in rapid succession, causing significant damages. The study finds that floods will be accompanied by increasing hot extremes under climate change, especially in tropical regions. The joint return periods of CFH hazards are projected to decrease globally, mainly driven by changes in hot extremes, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation planning for future risks.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Edward J. Zipser, Chuntao Liu
Summary: This paper aims to define different types of extreme storms and their global distribution more clearly. Recent findings suggest that extreme storm events differ depending on specific definitions and approaches, but are starting to converge. The study shows that extreme rain rates and intense convection must be differentiated by size, with large rain areas predominantly in the ocean and small rain areas on land, while the most intense convective cores are almost exclusively over land.
CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE REPORTS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Bayoumy Mohamed, Alexander Barth, Aida Alvera-Azcarate
Summary: This study examines the long-term spatiotemporal trend of marine heatwaves and marine cold spells in the southern North Sea and finds that the warming of sea surface temperature is associated with an increase in heatwave frequency and a decrease in cold spell frequency. In the last two decades, the frequency of heatwaves has been increasing, with notable peaks in 2014, 2020, and 2007. The study highlights the importance of the East Atlantic Pattern and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the formation of heatwaves in the southern North Sea.
FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Akshay Deoras, Andrew G. Turner, Kieran M. R. Hunt, I. M. Shiromani Priyanthika Jayawardena
Summary: Sri Lanka is subjected to regular extreme precipitation events, resulting in floods, landslides, and significant economic losses. By analyzing the ERA5 reanalysis data set, we discovered that the most frequent weather patterns during the northeast monsoon (December-February) and second intermonsoon (October-November) seasons are associated with the highest number of extreme precipitation events. Moreover, extreme precipitation events during these seasons tend to be more persistent compared to the southwest monsoon (May-September) and first intermonsoon (March-April) seasons. We also found that the Madden-Julian Oscillation modulates the frequency of extreme precipitation events, with phases 1-4 enhancing and phases 5-8 suppressing their occurrence for most weather patterns.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Chinmay Jena, Sachin D. Ghude, Rajesh Kumar, Sreyashi Debnath, Gaurav Govardhan, Vijay K. Soni, Santosh H. Kulkarni, G. Beig, Ravi S. Nanjundiah, M. Rajeevan
Summary: This study introduces a high-resolution operational air quality forecasting system to alert residents of Delhi and the National Capital Region about upcoming air pollution episodes. The system has shown high skill in forecasting PM2.5 concentration and unhealthy air quality index categories, assisting decision-makers in making informed decisions. The accuracy of the forecast decreases slightly with lead time, but remains useful for decision-making.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
S. Indira Rani, T. Arulalan, John P. George, E. N. Rajagopal, Richard Renshaw, Adam Maycock, Dale M. Barker, M. Rajeevan
Summary: The IMDAA project provides a high-resolution regional reanalysis of the Indian monsoon, covering the satellite era from 1979 to 2018, using a 4D-Var data assimilation method and the U.K. Met Office Unified Model. The reanalysis presents various aspects of the Indian monsoon, including quality control of observations, data assimilation system, and verification of reanalysis products. Salient features of the Indian summer monsoon are well represented in the IMDAA reanalysis.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, Peter Bechtold, Yuejian Zhu, R. Phani Murali Krishna, Siddharth Kumar, Malay Ganai, Snehlata Tirkey, Tanmoy Goswami, M. Mahakur, Medha Deshpande, V. S. Prasad, C. J. Johny, Ashim Mitra, Raghavendra Ashrit, Abhijit Sarkar, Sahadat Sarkar, Kumar Roy, Elphin Andrews, Radhika Kanase, Shilpa Malviya, S. Abhilash, Manoj Domkawle, S. D. Pawar, Ashu Mamgain, V. R. Durai, Ravi S. Nanjundiah, Ashish K. Mitra, E. N. Rajagopal, M. Mohapatra, M. Rajeevan
Summary: This study aims to understand the unprecedented heavy rainfall events over Kerala, India in August 2018 and 2019, highlighting the importance of large-scale moisture convergence and probabilistic rainfall predictions. Observations suggest that convective events were mainly dominated by cumulus congestus and shallow convection, with sporadic deep convection present in 2019. The research also shows that ensemble forecasts by advanced prediction systems can provide better early warnings for extreme rainfall events compared to deterministic models.
WEATHER AND FORECASTING
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Greeshma M. Mohan, K. Gayatri Vani, Anupam Hazra, Chandrima Mallick, Hemantkumar S. Chaudhari, Samir Pokhrel, S. D. Pawar, Mahen Konwar, Subodh K. Saha, Subrata K. Das, Sachin Deshpande, Sachin Ghude, M. C. Barth, S. A. Rao, R. S. Nanjundiah, M. Rajeevan
Summary: The study evaluated the accuracy of simulating lightning flash counts based on different lightning parameterization schemes and Lightning Potential Index (LPI) in the WRF model, with validation using LDN observation data. Results indicated the robustness of DLP2 and promising prospects for lightning prediction in operational forecasting.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
T. S. Mohan, Kondapalli Niranjan Kumar, A. Madhulatha, M. Rajeevan
Summary: This novel study explains a plausible physical mechanism for rainfall initiation over the southeast peninsular India during the southwest monsoon season, and elucidates the contrasting rainfall patterns between the rain shadow region and central India through the response of the maritime continent. The study shows that the maritime continent is a prominent source for the initiation of wet spells over the rain shadow region, with a lead time of 5-7 days, and the evolution of convective anomalies resembles a classical Gill-type response. The combined effect of large-scale circulation and moisture anomalies over the maritime continent contributes to positive rainfall anomalies over the rain shadow region.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2021)
Letter
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Rajesh Kumar
Article
Education, Scientific Disciplines
M. Rajeevan, Gopal Iyengar, Bhavya Khanna
Summary: Earth System Science integrates the study of physical, biological, chemical, and social processes that define the conditions on Earth, looking at the planet as a whole and linking different components. The services provided by Earth system science include weather and climate forecasts, ocean and coastal state forecasts, warnings, seismological monitoring, exploration of polar regions, and the exploration of living and non-living resources in the oceans.
RESONANCE-JOURNAL OF SCIENCE EDUCATION
(2021)
Article
Water Resources
Kondapalli Niranjan Kumar, Mohana Satyanarayana Thota, Raghavendra Ashrit, Ashis K. Mitra, Madhavan Nair Rajeevan
Summary: This study assesses different quantile mapping bias correction approaches to improve the accuracy of Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) Unified Model operational forecasts. The results show that empirical quantile mapping methods are effective in correcting precipitation close to observed cumulative distribution in the coastal cities of Chennai and Mumbai. However, parametric methods perform better in extreme rainfall cases, making them suitable for flood forecasting.
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
P. Kishore, Ghouse Basha, M. Venkat Ratnam, Amir AghaKouchak, Isabella Velicogna, M. Rajeevan
Summary: Changes in precipitation pattern can have widespread impacts on natural and human systems. This study evaluates precipitation variability in India during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, and identifies the factors responsible for these changes. The findings highlight the dominant role of anthropogenic aerosol in reducing rainfall during the summer monsoon, leading to drying trends in the second half of the twentieth century in India. The projected simulations indicate an increasing trend in precipitation throughout the twenty-first century.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
P. Rohini, M. Rajeevan, V. K. Soni
Summary: This study examined the trends in hourly temperature using quality temperature data from 66 Indian stations. The results showed that most parts of India were warmer throughout the day during the period 1994-2012 compared to 1975-1993. The increase in daytime temperatures was subdued in Central India due to the cooling effect caused by an increase in aerosol content. However, there was a statistically significant warming trend in diurnal temperature during night/early morning hours. The warm hours showed an increasing trend in all four homogenous regions, with the most significant increase observed in northwest and northeast India. The increase in extreme temperature hours may lead to longer heat wave events in the future.
Article
Astronomy & Astrophysics
A. Madhulatha, Jimy Dudhia, Rae-Seol Park, M. Rajeevan
Summary: The structure of latent heating rate during different stages of mesoscale convective system over the Korean Peninsula was investigated using a WRF model simulation. The results showed that condensation and deposition were the dominant heating processes during the development/ mature stage, while evaporation and melting were dominant during the dissipating stage.
EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Astronomy & Astrophysics
P. Rohini, M. Rajeevan
Summary: Heat wave has a disastrous impact on various sectors in India, so accurate forecasts of heat wave events are needed. This study assesses the prediction skill of numerical weather prediction models in predicting heat waves in India up to 7 days in advance. The analysis shows that the TIGGE models can accurately predict the spatial distribution and intensity of heat wave events with a lead time of 1-7 days, providing early warnings with at least 5 days lead time.
EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Shinto Roose, R. S. Ajayamohan, Pallav Ray, Shang-Ping Xie, C. T. Sabeerali, M. Mohapatra, S. Taraphdar, K. Mohanakumar, M. Rajeevan
Summary: Over the past 60 years, there has been a significant decline in the number of tropical cyclones near the equator in the north Indian Ocean. This decline is primarily due to weakened low-level vorticity modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and increased vertical wind shear. With the presence of low-latitude basinwide warming and a favorable phase of the PDO, both the intensity and frequency of such cyclones are expected to increase, calling for appropriate planning and mitigation strategies.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Narendra G. Dhangar, D. M. Lal, Sachin D. Ghude, Rachana Kulkarni, Avinash N. Parde, Prakash Pithani, K. Niranjan, Dasari S. V. V. D. Prasad, Chinmay Jena, Veeresh S. Sajjan, Thara Prabhakaran, A. K. Karipot, R. K. Jenamani, Surender Singh, M. Rajeevan
Summary: The study illustrates dense fog events at Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi during the Winter Fog Experiment, focusing on fog formation and evolution based on visibility and micrometeorological structure. It was found that surface radiative cooling and the depth of the saturated layer play crucial roles in the development and intensification of fog, with different phases of fog based on optical properties and stability. Observation of dense fog events indicates that the depth of saturation layer influences the fog's ability to withstand turbulence intensity.
PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS
(2021)