4.5 Article

Statistical Analysis and Machine Learning Prediction of Fog-Caused Low-Visibility Events at A-8 Motor-Road in Spain

Journal

ATMOSPHERE
Volume 12, Issue 6, Pages -

Publisher

MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/atmos12060679

Keywords

low-visibility events; orographic and hill-fogs; extreme learning machines; prediction problems; machine learning algorithms

Funding

  1. Ministerio de Economia, Industria y Competitividad of Spain [TIN2017-85887-C2-2-P, TIN2017-90567-REDT]

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This study presents a full statistical analysis and accurate prediction of low-visibility events due to fog on the A-8 motor-road in Mondonedo, Spain. Through statistical analysis, it was found that there is a clear relationship between low-visibility depth and event duration, which can be accurately predicted using a neural network approach with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.8.
This work presents a full statistical analysis and accurate prediction of low-visibility events due to fog, at the A-8 motor-road in Mondonedo (Galicia, Spain). The present analysis covers two years of study, considering visibility time series and exogenous variables collected in the zone affected the most by extreme low-visibility events. This paper has then a two-fold objective: first, we carry out a statistical analysis for estimating the fittest probability distributions to the fog event duration, using the Maximum Likelihood method and an alternative method known as the L-moments method. This statistical study allows association of the low-visibility depth with the event duration, showing a clear relationship, which can be modeled with distributions for extremes such as Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Pareto distributions. Second, we apply a neural network approach, trained by means of the ELM (Extreme Learning Machine) algorithm, to predict the occurrence of low-visibility events due to fog, from atmospheric predictive variables. This study provides a full characterization of fog events at this motor-road, in which orographic fog is predominant, causing important traffic problems during all year. We also show how the ELM approach is able to obtain highly accurate low-visibility events predictions, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.8, within a half-hour time horizon, enough to initialize some protocols aiming at reducing the impact of these extreme events in the traffic of the A-8 motor road.

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