Journal
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
Volume 12, Issue 1, Pages -Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24622-7
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Funding
- Veneto Region
- Abdul Latif Jameel Foundation
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis - UK Medical Research Council (MRC), under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement [MR/R015600/1]
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis - UK Department for International Development (DFID), under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement [MR/R015600/1]
- European Union
- Wellcome Trust [203851/Z/16/Z, 213494/Z/18/Z]
- European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [874735]
- University of Padova
- Department of Molecular Medicine (STARS-CoG ISS-MYTH)
- UK NIHR
- Royal Society [213494/Z/18/Z]
- Department of Molecular Medicine (PRID/SID 2020)
- Wellcome Trust [203851/Z/16/Z, 213494/Z/18/Z] Funding Source: Wellcome Trust
- MRC [MR/R015600/1] Funding Source: UKRI
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A study in Vo', Italy, conducted two mass swab testing campaigns in February and March 2020, followed by serological surveys in May and November. The findings show a seroprevalence of 3.5% in May and indicate that the majority of positive sera in May still reacted against at least one antigen in November. Analysis of household members revealed a Susceptible-Infectious Transmission Probability of 26.0%, with limited impact of contact tracing on epidemic suppression.
In February and March 2020, two mass swab testing campaigns were conducted in Vo', Italy. In May 2020, we tested 86% of the Vo' population with three immuno-assays detecting antibodies against the spike and nucleocapsid antigens, a neutralisation assay and Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). Subjects testing positive to PCR in February/March or a serological assay in May were tested again in November. Here we report on the results of the analysis of the May and November surveys. We estimate a seroprevalence of 3.5% (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 2.8-4.3%) in May. In November, 98.8% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 93.7-100.0%) of sera which tested positive in May still reacted against at least one antigen; 18.6% (95% CI: 11.0-28.5%) showed an increase of antibody or neutralisation reactivity from May. Analysis of the serostatus of the members of 1,118 households indicates a 26.0% (95% CrI: 17.2-36.9%) Susceptible-Infectious Transmission Probability. Contact tracing had limited impact on epidemic suppression. Vo', Italy, is a unique setting for studying SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics because mass testing was conducted there early in the pandemic. Here, the authors perform two follow-up serological surveys and estimate seroprevalence, the extent of within-household transmission, and the impact of contact tracing.
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