Hydrological variation recorded in a subalpine peatland of Northeast Asia since the Little Ice Age and its possible driving mechanisms

Hydrological characteristics since the Little Ice Age (LIA) could provide a good reference for current climate analysis and future climate prediction. However, the hydrological variation since the LIA and its driving mechanisms in Northeast Asia remain unclear, which has severely restricted our understanding on the past, present and future hydroclimate changes in these regions. Here we reconstruct the hydrological dynamics over the past 700 years using samples from the Hani peatland a subalpine peatland of Changbai Mountains to reveal these issues. The analytical results from plant macrofossil and grain-size of the HN-1 core and the integrated moisture/precipitation records across the entire Northeast Asia indicate that the hydrological environments in Northeast Asia were wetter conditions during the period of 1300-1700 AD, dry conditions during the period of 1700-1850 AD, and wet conditions during the period of 1850-2018 AD, respectively. The possible driving mechanisms for the hydrological variations in Northeast Asia since the LIA can be divided into three models. La Nino-like conditions induced wetter conditions in Northeast Asia from 1300 to 1700 AD. From 1700 to 1850 AD, strong volcanic aerosol effects superimposed on weaker La Nino-like conditions, resulting in dry conditions in Northeast Asia. However, El Nino-like conditions induced wet conditions in Northeast Asia from 1850 to 2018 AD. These driving models suggest that the teleconnected influence of solar activity/sunspot could control the hydrological dynamics in Northeast Asia on a decadal-centennial scale through the ENSO activities and Walker Circulation changes since the LIA. Based on the periodicity relationship between hydrological conditions and sunspot, it can be predicted that the moisutre conditions in Northeast Asia would gradually decrease from 2030 to 2085 AD, and gradually increase from 2085 to 2140 AD. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

The study reconstructed hydrological dynamics over the past 700 years in Northeast Asia using samples from the Hani peatland in the Changbai Mountains, revealing wetter conditions from 1300-1700 AD, dry conditions from 1700-1850 AD, and wet conditions from 1850-2018 AD. The driving mechanisms for these hydrological variations were identified as La Nina-like conditions, volcanic aerosol effects, and El Nino-like conditions. The results suggest that solar activity and sunspot cycles may control the hydrological dynamics in Northeast Asia on a decadal-centennial scale.