Lifetime incidence risk for gastric cancer in the Helicobacter pylori-infected and uninfected population in Japan: A Monte Carlo simulation study

Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection is considered the leading cause of gastric cancer. Gastric cancer is currently a common cancer with high incidence and mortality rates, but it is expected that the incidence rate will gradually decrease as the H. pylori infection prevalence decreases in the future. When evaluating the effectiveness of gastric cancer prevention strategies, it is essential to note the differences in long-term cumulative risks between H. pylori-infected and uninfected populations, but this has not yet been precisely evaluated. In our study, we aimed to estimate the cumulative incidence risks of developing gastric cancer from birth to 85 years among H. pylori-infected and uninfected populations by using population-based cancer registry data and birth year-specific H. pylori infection prevalence rates. Death from gastric cancer and other causes of death were considered in the estimations of the adjusted cumulative incidence risks stratified by sex and H. pylori infection status. After performing 5000 Monte Carlo simulations with repeated random sampling using observed cancer incidence in selected three prefectures (Fukui, Nagasaki, Yamagata) of prefectural population-based cancer registry in Japan, the mean adjusted cumulative incidence risk for gastric cancer in the H. pylori-infected population was 17.0% for males and 7.7% for females and 1.0% for males and 0.5% for females in the uninfected population. These results calculated with Japanese cancer registry data may be useful in considering and evaluating future prevention strategies for gastric cancer in Japan.

Automated summary

H. pylori infection is considered the leading cause of gastric cancer, but as the infection rate decreases, the incidence of gastric cancer is expected to gradually decrease. This study estimated the cumulative incidence risks of developing gastric cancer from birth to 85 years among H. pylori-infected and uninfected populations, showing a significantly higher risk for infected individuals.