Journal
ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE
Volume 8, Issue 3, Pages -Publisher
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rsos.202169
Keywords
projection; countermeasure; exit strategy; next-generation matrix; COVID-19; Japan
Categories
Funding
- Health and Labor Sciences Research Grant [19HA1003, 20CA2024, 20HA2007]
- Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED) [JP19fk0108104, JP20fk0108140]
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI [17H04701]
- Inamori Foundation
- GAP Fund Program of Kyoto University
- Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) CREST program [JPMJCR1413]
- JSPS KAKENHI [20J2135800]
- Nakajima Foundation
- Alan Turing Institute
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This study analyzed the control measures for COVID-19 in Japan and possible exit strategies, finding that in Tokyo and Osaka, a 50% reduction in high-risk transmission is necessary to control the epidemic and minimize the risk of resurgence.
An initial set of interventions, including the closure of host and hostess clubs and voluntary limitation of non-household contact, probably greatly contributed to reducing the disease incidence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan, but this approach must eventually be replaced by a more sustainable strategy. To characterize such a possible exit strategy from the restrictive guidelines, we quantified the next-generation matrix, accounting for high- and low-risk transmission settings. This matrix was used to project the future incidence in Tokyo and Osaka after the state of emergency is lifted, presenting multiple 'post-emergency' scenarios with different levels of restriction. The effective reproduction numbers (R) for the increasing phase, the transition phase and the state-of-emergency phase in the first wave of the disease were estimated as 1.78 (95% credible interval (CrI): 1.73-1.82), 0.74 (95% CrI: 0.71-0.78) and 0.63 (95% CrI: 0.61-0.65), respectively, in Tokyo and as 1.58 (95% CrI: 1.51-1.64), 1.20 (95% CrI: 1.15-1.25) and 0.48 (95% CrI: 0.44-0.51), respectively, in Osaka. Projections showed that a 50% decrease in the high-risk transmission is required to keep R less than 1 in both locations-a level necessary to maintain control of the epidemic and minimize the risk of resurgence.
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