Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Olivia J. Hoch, Luke A. McGuire, Ann M. Youberg, Francis K. Rengers
Summary: Wildfires can increase the likelihood of runoff-generated debris flows in steep watersheds due to changes in soil and vegetation. This study quantified how the rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation change over time in recovering burned areas. Factors such as soil infiltration capacity, vegetation growth, and sediment properties play a role in determining the rainfall needed for debris-flow initiation.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-EARTH SURFACE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jason W. Kean, Dennis M. Staley
Summary: Southern California has a long history of damaging debris flows after wildfires, but forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of postfire debris flows are not as readily available as they are for earthquakes. Research shows that small debris flows can be expected almost every year, while major debris flows capable of damaging 40 or more structures have a recurrence interval between 10 and 13 years.
Article
Engineering, Environmental
Yan Zhao, Xingmin Meng, Tianjun Qi, Guan Chen, Yajun Li, Dongxia Yue, Feng Qing
Summary: Debris flows are a significant hazard in mountainous regions. This study presents a method for estimating daily rainfall thresholds for debris flows based on underlying surface factors. The estimated thresholds were verified using historical debris flow events and can provide a reference for early warning in areas lacking monitoring data.
BULLETIN OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Haizhi Wang, Bing Xu, Junjie Zhang, Xiaona Guo, Qingli Zeng, Luqing Zhang
Summary: This study derives a new rainfall threshold for debris flows in Beijing based on the analysis of three strong storms that caused severe flooding and debris flows. The results show that the real-time rainfall threshold exhibits the best performance in separating storms with positive debris-flow response. Additionally, the data indicate that debris flows in Beijing are triggered by the combined work of rainfall intensity and cumulative precipitation.
GEOMATICS NATURAL HAZARDS & RISK
(2022)
Article
Geography, Physical
Giuseppe Esposito, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Rocco Masi, Stefano Alfano, Gaetano Giannatiempo
Summary: Wildfires in the Campania region of Southern Italy increase the risk of postfire debris flows (PFDFs) due to surface runoff and erosional processes. A catalog of 113 PFDFs that occurred between 2001 and 2021 was analyzed, with an average of 5 events per year and a peak in 2017. The rainfall conditions associated with PFDF initiation were reconstructed and analyzed, showing that these events are not rare or extreme.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Tao Liu, Luke A. McGuire, Nina Oakley, Forest Cannon
Summary: The study used hydrological models and radar data to estimate ID thresholds for post-fire flash floods, finding significant changes in these thresholds over the years post-fire. Results suggest that thresholds based on averaging rainfall intensity over longer durations and using higher percentiles of rainfall intensity are more effective in predicting post-fire flash floods.
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2022)
Review
Engineering, Geological
Gianluca Sala, Camilla Lanfranconi, Paolo Frattini, Giulia Rusconi, Giovanni B. Crosta
Summary: This study proposes a new methodology to develop cost-sensitive rainfall thresholds based on ROC curves derived from rain gauge and bias-adjusted weather radar data. It examines the importance of considering different missed-alarm and false-alarm misclassification costs, as different cost combinations can lead to adjustments in rainfall thresholds. The analysis highlights the impact of factors like rainfall intensity accuracy and the time of landslide occurrence on the development of optimal rainfall thresholds.
Article
Construction & Building Technology
Zhong-ming He, Xiao-qu Liu, Ke Huang, Jian-ping Xiong
Summary: This study investigates the seepage and deformation characteristics of carbonaceous mudstone coarse-grained soil embankments under dynamic load and rainfall through indoor geotechnical tests and numerical calculations. The research results show that the nonuniformity coefficient has a significant impact on the behavior of embankments, and lower saturated permeability coefficients and water contents result in higher seepage velocities.
ADVANCES IN CIVIL ENGINEERING
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Geological
Zhuoyan Jiang, Xuanmei Fan, Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian, Fan Yang, Ran Tang, Qiang Xu, Runqiu Huang
Summary: This study analyzed the evolution of probabilistic rainfall thresholds for post-seismic debris flows using a Bayesian technique, based on triggering and non-triggering rainfall data after the Wenchuan earthquake. The results indicated that antecedent precipitation plays a crucial role in low-intensity long-duration rainfall-induced debris flows, while short-duration high-intensity events are less affected. The study also found that the I-T-D model performed best in investigating uncertainties of rainfall threshold models, providing valuable insights for improving early warning systems for post-seismic debris flows.
ENGINEERING GEOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Geological
G. Ciccarese, M. Mulas, A. Corsini
Summary: The study combines spatial modeling and regionalization of debris rainfall thresholds to assess and map debris flow initiation hazard in the Emilia-Romagna Apennines, Italy. Different spatial statistical models were trained and compared, resulting in a hazard map that classifies areas into high, medium, low, or null hazard based on spatial and temporal probabilities. This map is considered reliable for integrating existing inventory maps in land-use regulation and emergency planning despite its limitations.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Edoardo Rundeddu, Jose J. Lizarraga, Giuseppe Buscarnera
Summary: This research proposes a hybrid stochastic-mechanical approach to quantify the influence of hydro-mechanical factors on slope stability and rank their importance. Using data from the Campania region in Italy, synthetic intensity-duration thresholds are computed through Monte Carlo simulations. The variability of key variables is evaluated to examine their impact on the results.
Article
Engineering, Geological
David Bernard, Emily Trousil, Paul Santi
Summary: Prediction of possible inundation areas is critical for debris-flow hazard management and was achieved in this research by developing runout parameters specific to post-wildfire debris flows. Using data from flows triggered by a storm in 2003, equations were modified to best estimate post-wildfire data, providing values within certain prediction intervals. These values are expected to apply to post-wildfire debris flows in Southern California mountain ranges.
ENGINEERING GEOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
K. D. Morell, P. Alessio, T. Dunne, E. Keller
Summary: This study utilized lidar differencing and field observations to investigate sediment mobilization from mountain canyons by post-wildfire debris flows in Montecito, CA, USA in 2018. The research found that the volumes of debris flows in extreme events are ultimately controlled by the coarse sediment reservoir available for scour, emphasizing the importance of estimating stored sediment volumes in developing debris-flow hazard assessments.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Minu Treesa Abraham, Neelima Satyam, Ascanio Rosi, Biswajeet Pradhan, Samuele Segoni
Summary: Empirical and probabilistic approaches for defining rainfall thresholds are commonly used for forecasting rainfall induced landslides, but often result in higher false alarms. This study aims to improve the performance of conventional meteorological thresholds by considering the effect of soil moisture, using a probabilistic approach. Results show that a Bayesian probabilistic threshold derived using rainfall severity and soil wetness outperformed the conventional approaches, with potential for developing an operational landslide early warning system based on a combination of rainfall and soil moisture data.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Ying-Hsin Wu
Summary: This study evaluates a debris flow disaster that occurred at the boundary of Yamaguchi and Shimane Prefectures in western Japan in 2013 by numerically modeling the event using a combination of empirical hydrologic analysis and mechanical debris flow model. High-resolution precipitation data was reanalyzed using observations from radars and rain gauges to obtain direct runoff hydrograph, which was then used to simulate the movement of the debris flow. The simulation results were verified by field evidence from field survey, demonstrating the applicability of the proposed empirical-mechanical approach for assessing debris flows in ungauged basins.
ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
David G. Litwin, Gregory E. Tucker, Katherine R. Barnhart, Ciaran J. Harman
Summary: This study developed a new model to explore how runoff generation affects long-term catchment evolution, focusing on hydrologic processes dominating in humid climates. The results showed the interplay between surface and subsurface water, with implications on landscape evolution and runoff generation.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-EARTH SURFACE
(2022)
Editorial Material
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
David G. Litwin, Gregory E. Tucker, Katherine R. Barnhart, Ciaran J. Harman
Summary: This article discusses the importance of domain size in a simple landscape evolution model and shows that it has little impact on the results in the examined parameter space. The authors also demonstrate that using landscape evolution process rates rather than domain size for nondimensionalization allows for a clearer understanding of the intrinsic features of the results.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-EARTH SURFACE
(2022)
Review
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Timothy Titus, D. Robertson, J. B. Sankey, L. Mastin, F. Rengers
Summary: Modern civilization lacks collective experience in dealing with the potential wide-ranging effects of a medium-sized asteroid impact. While efforts have been made to model the initial effects of meteor impacts or airbursts, the long-term cascading hazards are often overlooked. This paper reviews the initial and cascading effects of more common natural disasters and discusses their relevance to the expected long-term effects of an asteroid impact. A framework linking multiple hazard models could greatly benefit emergency managers, resource planners, and research scientists involved in mitigation and recovery efforts.
Article
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Ryan P. P. Jones, Francis K. K. Rengers, Katherine R. R. Barnhart, David L. L. George, Dennis M. M. Staley, Jason W. W. Kean
Summary: Debris flow runout is a dangerous phenomenon that poses risks to human life and infrastructure. By modifying a flow model to include the effects of segregation on permeability, we found that it improved the accuracy of predicting debris flow depth and runout distance. Therefore, considering segregation is important in predicting and mitigating debris flow hazards.
EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Matthew A. A. Thomas, Donald N. N. Lindsay, David B. B. Cavagnaro, Jason W. W. Kean, Scott W. W. McCoy, Andrew P. P. Graber
Summary: Increased wildfire activity in the western United States has revealed gaps in understanding postfire debris-flow generation. By characterizing flows in an unstudied area, we found that short-duration, high-intensity rainfall is more likely to initiate runoff-generated debris flows compared to total storm rainfall. This finding suggests the need for a focus on localized thunderstorms or bands of intense rainfall during prolonged rainstorms for hazard assessment and warning.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
David M. Rey, Martin A. Briggs, Michelle A. Walvoord, Brian A. Ebel
Summary: Increasingly severe and frequent wildfires in the western United States may change the quantity, timing, and quality of water exported by streams from burned areas. However, the effects of wildfires on groundwater recharge, changes in subsurface routing, and their consequences for stream low flows sourced predominantly by baseflow are poorly understood. This study demonstrates the use of temperature signals to identify changes in watershed subsurface flow contributions after fire and provides a framework for water management, impacts on aquatic habitat, and post-wildfire response planning.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Sai S. Nudurupati, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, Gregory E. Tucker, Nicole M. Gasparini, Daniel E. J. Hobley, Eric W. H. Hutton, Katherine R. Barnhart, Jordan M. Adams
Summary: Projecting the response of arid and semi-arid ecosystems to global change involves integrating various analytical and numerical models. This study used the Landlab earth surface modeling toolkit to investigate the controls of exogenous drivers and endogenous grass-fire feedback mechanisms in New Mexico. The simulations showed that shrubs occupy cooler slopes in dry conditions and shift to warmer slopes as regional moisture increases. The expansion of woody plant encroachment is predicted to occur in three phases, with the second phase requiring the removal of positive grass-fire feedback by grazing or fire suppression.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2023)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Brian A. Ebel, Zachary M. Shephard, Michelle A. Walvoord, Sheila F. Murphy, Trevor F. Partridge, Kim S. Perkins
Summary: Wildfires are an increasing concern due to climate change, and their hydrologic effects are being studied using numerical models. This review examines the use of physically based distributed models to understand water resources after wildfires, focusing on geographic/ecohydrologic distribution, representation of hydrologic processes, model parameterization, and model performance. There are opportunities for improvement, such as applying models in underrepresented regions, incorporating all streamflow generation mechanisms, and integrating vegetation regrowth models with hydrologic models.
Article
Water Resources
Sheila F. Murphy, Charles N. Alpers, Chauncey W. Anderson, J. Ryan Banta, Johanna M. Blake, Kurt D. Carpenter, Gregory D. Clark, David W. Clow, Laura A. Hempel, Deborah A. Martin, Michael R. Meador, Gregory O. Mendez, Anke B. Mueller-Solger, Marc A. Stewart, Sean E. Payne, Cara L. Peterman, Brian A. Ebel
Summary: Wildfires pose a risk to water supplies due to potential degradation of water quality, but a lack of data hinders prediction and assessment of post-wildfire impacts. Strategic monitoring and selection of sampling locations based on specific criteria can enhance assessment and prediction of post-wildfire water quality. Improved estimates of post-wildfire effects on water quality would help mitigate impacts on water supplies.
FRONTIERS IN WATER
(2023)
Article
Forestry
Adam G. Wells, Todd J. Hawbaker, J. Kevin Hiers, Jason Kean, Rachel A. Loehman, Paul F. Steblein
Summary: This study aimed to predict burn severity using pre-fire conditions and estimate the potential post-fire debris flow to unburned areas. Fuels, pre-fire weather, and topography were important predictors of burn severity. Predicted burn severity can be used to predict fire effects and identify potential hazards for prioritizing response and mitigation.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
William T. Struble, Luke A. McGuire, Scott W. McCoy, Katherine R. Barnhart, Odin Marc
Summary: Steep landscapes are largely shaped by debris flows, which incise valley bottoms and transport significant sediment volumes. However, the exact contribution of debris flows to the formation of steepland morphology is still uncertain, limiting the development of accurate erosion rate formulations. In the San Gabriel Mountains, the transition from steepland valleys to fluvial channels is correlated with erosion rates, and a one-dimensional landform model incorporating debris-flow erosion successfully reproduces these relationships. The model also highlights the critical role of debris flow incision in shaping steepland form, even as fluvial incision becomes dominant.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-EARTH SURFACE
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Francis K. Rengers, Luke A. McGuire, Katherine R. Barnhart, Ann M. Youberg, Daniel Cadol, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, Jason W. Kean
Summary: This study investigated the impact of post-fire large woody debris (LWD) on debris flow velocity and volume retention in four small watersheds in the Gila National Forest, New Mexico. The results showed that significant sediment storage was created by LWD upstream from the terminal fan, which was comparable to the total debris flow volume stored at the terminal fans. The study also proposed a method for estimating debris flow velocity based on estimates of the critical velocity required to break wood.
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Gregory E. Tucker, Eric W. H. Hutton, Mark D. Piper, Benjamin Campforts, Tian Gan, Katherine R. Barnhart, Albert J. Kettner, Irina Overeem, Scott D. Peckham, Lynn McCready, Jaia Syvitski
Summary: Computational modeling plays a unique role in Earth and environmental sciences, serving as both scientific technology and infrastructure and as containers of the scientific community's understanding. To promote a flexible, interoperable, and ever-improving research software ecosystem, the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) has developed design principles, protocols, and tools.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2022)
