4.5 Article

Future Projections of Petermann Glacier Under Ocean Warming Depend Strongly on Friction Law

Journal

Publisher

AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2020JF005921

Keywords

friction; Greenland; ice sheet; ice shelf; modeling; sea level

Funding

  1. Swedish Research Council [2016-07213, 2016-04021, 2016-05092]
  2. Swedish Research Council [2016-04021, 2016-05092] Funding Source: Swedish Research Council
  3. Vinnova [2016-05092] Funding Source: Vinnova

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Basal friction plays a key role in controlling the dynamics of fast-flowing glaciers, and the choice of friction law can significantly impact projections of future sea-level rise. Despite not considering the effects of a warmer atmosphere, the breakup of Petermann Glacier's ice shelf and retreat of its grounding line are likely to happen in the coming decades. Estimates of sea-level rise by 2300 vary greatly depending on the friction law used.
Basal friction heavily controls the dynamics of fast-flowing glaciers. However, the best approach to modeling friction is unclear, increasing uncertainties in projections of future mass loss and sea-level rise. Here, we compare six friction laws and evaluate them for Petermann Glacier in northern Greenland, using a higher order three-dimensional ice-sheet model. We model glacier retreat and mass loss under an ocean-only warming until year 2300, while not considering the effects of a future warmer atmosphere. Regardless of the friction law, we find that breakup of Petermann's ice shelf is likely to occur within the next decades. However, future grounding-line retreat differs by 10s of km and estimates of sea-level rise may quadruple, depending on the friction law employed. A bedrock ridge halts the retreat for four of the laws, and Petermann retreats furthest when applying a Budd or a Coulomb-type till law. Depending on the friction law, sea-level contributions differ by 133% and 282% by 2300 for 2 degrees C and 5 degrees C ocean warming scenarios, respectively.

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