Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Estuarine Shoreline Change in the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuarine System, North Carolina, USA

Many shoreline studies rely on historical change rates determined from aerial imagery decades to over 50 years apart to predict shoreline position and determine setback distances for coastal structures. These studies may not illustrate the coastal impacts of short-duration but potentially high-impact storm events. In this study, shoreline change rates (SCRs) are quantified at five different sites ranging from marsh to sediment bank shorelines around the Albemarle-Pamlico estuarine system (APES) for a series of historical (decadal to 50-year) and short-term (bimonthly) time periods as well as for individual storm events. Long-term (historical) SCRs of approximately -0.5 +/- 0.07 m year(-1) are observed, consistent with previous work along estuarine shorelines in North Carolina. Short-term SCRs are highly variable, both spatially and temporally, and ranged from 15.8 +/- 7.5 to -19.3 +/- 11.5 m year(-1) at one of the study sites. The influence of wave climate on the spatial and temporal variability of short-term erosion rates is investigated using meteorological observations and coupled hydrodynamic (Delft3D) and wave (SWAN) models. The models are applied to simulate hourly variability in the surface waves and water levels. The results indicate that in the fetch-limited APES, wind direction strongly influences the wave climate at the study sites. The wave height also has an influence on short-term SCRs as determined from the wave simulations for individual meteorological events, but no statistical correlation is found for wave height and SCRs over the long term. Despite the significantly higher rates of shoreline erosion over short time periods and from individual events like hurricanes, the cumulative impact over long time periods is low. Therefore, while the short-term response of these shorelines to episodic forcing should be taken into account in management plans, the long-term trends commonly used in ocean shoreline management can also be used to determine erosion setbacks on estuarine shorelines.