Climate change may affect the future of extractivism in the Brazilian Amazon

The Amazon forest is vulnerable to climate change and anthropic actions, such as fire and deforestation, which together represent a troubling scenario. Many traditional populations that inhabit the region depend on nontimber forest resources for food or economic sustenance. We demonstrated that climate change predicted for 2050 may affect the geographic distribution of 18 species of palms and trees that are extracted and used as resources by traditional populations living in extractive reserves (RESEX). According to our ecological niche models, 11 species may have a reduction in their areas of environmental suitability (AES), and nine of them may disappear from some RESEXs. In addition, 21 RESEXs may lose one or more species, while four may lose all their extractive species. We warn that the lack of socio-environmental diagnoses of these reserves makes it difficult to forecast social impacts and to develop mitigation measures. Finally, we identify priority places for the implementation of conservation policies for extractive species.

Automated summary

The Amazon forest is facing threats from climate change and anthropic actions, potentially affecting both traditional populations and plant resources in extractive reserves. Research suggests that multiple species of plants may see a reduction or disappearance in their suitable environmental areas in the future, highlighting the need for social and environmental diagnostics to develop mitigation measures. Priority locations for conservation policies for extractive species have been identified to address these challenges.