4.7 Article

Probability of COVID-19 infection by cough of a normal person and a super-spreader

Journal

PHYSICS OF FLUIDS
Volume 33, Issue 3, Pages -

Publisher

AMER INST PHYSICS
DOI: 10.1063/5.0041596

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This study estimates the probability of an infected person infecting another through coughing in the context of COVID-19, with results showing high infection probability within the cough cloud and rapid decay of transmission beyond it. Wearing a mask is effective in reducing infection probability, and the study quantifies the increased transmission probability by super-spreaders. The importance of maintaining a 2 m distance between individuals is supported by the findings.
In this work, we estimate the probability of an infected person infecting another person in the vicinity by coughing in the context of COVID-19. The analysis relies on the experimental data of Simha and Rao [Universal trends in human cough airflows at large distances, Phys. Fluids 32, 081905 (2020)] and similarity analysis of Agrawal and Bhardwaj [Reducing chances of COVID-19 infection by a cough cloud in a closed space, Phys. Fluids 32, 101704 (2020)] to determine the variation of the concentration of infected aerosols with some distance from the source. The analysis reveals a large probability of infection within the volume of the cough cloud and a rapid exponential decay beyond it. The benefit of using a mask is clearly brought out through a reduction in the probability of infection. The increase in the probability of transmission by a super-spreader is also quantified for the first time. At a distance of 1 m, the probability of infection from a super-spreader is found to be 185% larger than a normal person. Our results support the current recommendation of maintaining a 2 m distance between two people. The analysis is enough to be applied to the transmission of other diseases by coughing, while the probability of transmission of COVID-19 due to other respiratory events can be obtained using our proposed approach.

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