Comparative assessment of mortality risk factors between admission and follow-up models among patients hospitalized with COVID-19

Objectives: This study aimed to compare differences in mortality risk factors between admission and follow-up incorporated models. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of 524 patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection admitted to a tertiary medical center in S?o Paulo, Brazil from 13 March to 30 April 2020. Data were collected on admission, and the third, eighth and fourteenth days of hospitalization. The hazard ratio (HR) was calculated and 28-day in-hospital mortality risk factors were compared between admission and followup models using a time-dependent Cox regression model. Results: Of 524 patients, 50.4% needed mechanical ventilation. The 28-day mortality rate was 32.8%. Compared with follow-up, admission models under-estimated the mortality HR for peripheral oxygen saturation 92% (1.21 versus 2.09), heart rate 100 bpm (1.19 versus 2.04), respiratory rate >24/min (1.01 versus 1.82) and mechanical ventilation (1.92 versus 12.93). Low oxygen saturation, higher oxygen support and more biomarkers?including lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, neutrophillymphocyte ratio, and urea remained associated with mortality after adjustment for clinical factors at follow-up compared with only urea and oxygen support at admission. Conclusions: The inclusion of follow-up measurements changed mortality hazards of clinical signs and biomarkers. Low oxygen saturation, higher oxygen support, lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, and urea could help with prognosis of patients during follow-up. ? 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-ncnd/4.0/).

Automated summary

This study compared mortality risk factors between admission and follow-up models for COVID-19 patients. It was found that follow-up models were more accurate in predicting survival rates compared to admission models. Factors such as low oxygen saturation, higher oxygen support, and various biomarkers were associated with mortality risk and played an important role in predicting patient prognosis.