Journal
ENERGY
Volume 109, Issue -, Pages 998-1015Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.020
Keywords
Meta-analysis; Principal component analysis; Energy system models; Distance measure; Swiss electricity system
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Funding
- SCCER-SoE (Swiss Competence Center of Energy Research - Supply of Electricity)
- Group of Energy Perspectives
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We present a meta-analysis of long-term energy-system scenario studies. The meta-analysis comprises a qualitative taxonomy of modeling approaches and a quantitative decomposition of scenario results across heterogenous studies. The analysis is exemplified by technology-detailed scenario studies of the Swiss electricity system. In the decomposition approach, we assess the variability across scenario results by a principal component analysis, which provides a low-dimensional approximation of multidimensional data. Additionally, by means of a distance measure, the extremality of a scenario result is evaluated, and a minimal set of representative scenarios is determined with respect to a considered scenario result. The proposed methods contribute to the analysis of commonality of modeling approaches and of multidimensional results across heterogenous scenario studies. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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