Journal
ENERGY
Volume 115, Issue -, Pages 722-733Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.08.097
Keywords
Grey system; Fractional calculus; Grey model; Fractional-order grey model; Prediction
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Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [61174145, 61673094]
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As superiority to conventional statistical models, the grey model based on the fractional calculus becomes a hot topic and show great potentials with excellent performance. In this paper, the generalized fractional-order forms for grey models are given, which could have more freedom and better modeling by the fractional derivatives. The case of per capita output of electricity prediction is discussed by the modified optimized fractional grey model using the error feedback. The performance is evaluated and greatly improved in modeling and prediction compared with some traditional grey methods. Due to the fractional derivatives, the novel model could provide the fitting, prediction with more freedom and enrich the content, scope and application of grey theory. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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