Article
Economics
Yongna Yuan, Guiyu Li, Hongbo Duan
Summary: In this paper, a multiregional dynamic computable general equilibrium model is developed to examine the impact of China's carbon peaking and energy transition goals on regional economic development in 2030. The results show that the carbon pricing policy has negative effects on the economy and exacerbates regional economic imbalance, but it promotes total energy control. Targeted power investment policy promotes economic development, alleviates regional economic imbalance, and incentivizes nonfossil energy technologies. It may be feasible to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon intensity goals in 2030, but the total energy control and clean energy development goals present challenges. Targeted power investment combined with flexible carbon pricing helps reconcile multiple policy goals and regional economic development balance.
ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS
(2023)
Article
Energy & Fuels
Satria Putra Kanugrahan, Dzikri Firmansyah Hakam
Summary: This study uses the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) software to model future power generation scenarios using renewable energy sources in order to assess the feasibility of achieving Indonesia's net-zero emissions target by 2060. The study includes five scenarios differentiated by the availability of renewable energy technology. The advanced (ADV) scenario, utilizing nuclear power and energy storage, achieves the 100% renewable energy target by 2060 at the lowest cost. However, the costs of the conservative (CON) and moderate (MOD) scenarios are not significantly higher. Decommissioning fossil fuel power plants and increasing renewable energy infrastructure are necessary for Indonesia to achieve its net-zero emissions target. Based on the simulation, biomass energy is least favorable, and solar energy is an option only when other renewable energies have reached their maximum potential capacity. Furthermore, nuclear energy and energy storage are crucial for Indonesia to reach its renewable energy target.
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Qiang Wang, Xue Yang
Summary: A study comparing production-based carbon emissions in China and Germany from 2000 to 2014 revealed significant differences in the two countries. China's emissions increased by 194%, while Germany's decreased by 17%. To implement more aggressive INDCs, China can learn from Germany to optimize production and consumption structures and continuously improve carbon efficiency.
JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Chemical
Daniel Rangel-Martinez, K. D. P. Nigam, Luis A. Ricardez-Sandoval
Summary: This study provides an overview of the current use of machine learning in manufacturing sectors, focusing on renewable energies, smart grids, and energy management. Artificial neural networks are the preferred technique, with a growing demand for ML in the energy sector expected in the future.
CHEMICAL ENGINEERING RESEARCH & DESIGN
(2021)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Miguel Blanco, Marcos Ferasso, Lydia Bares
Summary: This research evaluates the effects of regional clean energy production using shift-share analysis method, identifying significant differences in production among regions. Additionally, a forecast is made on the sector's evolution using constant shift and constant share methodology.
Article
Development Studies
Katherine M. Nelson, B. T. Yen, B. O. Sander
Summary: The agriculture sector has a significant impact on national greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries, with rice being a major contributor to methane emissions in Asia. Many countries have recognized the potential to reduce emissions by including rice sector targets in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement. This guide focuses on Vietnam and provides methods and tools for research organizations to support national governments in planning, financing, and implementing mitigation actions in the rice sector.
DEVELOPMENT IN PRACTICE
(2023)
Proceedings Paper
Energy & Fuels
Mahsa Ebadat-Parast, Mohammad Hassan Nazari, Mehrdad Bagheri Sanjareh, Seyed Hossein Hosseinian
Summary: This research focuses on enhancing the resilience of hybrid AC/DC smart grids in standard and emergency operation states through a resilience-oriented two-level scenario-based stochastic optimization problem, aiming to minimize energy curtailment and operation costs.
2021 11TH SMART GRID CONFERENCE (SGC)
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Alexandre C. Koberle, Vassilis Daioglou, Pedro Rochedo, Andre F. P. Lucena, Alexandre Szklo, Shinichiro Fujimori, Thierry Brunelle, Etsushi Kato, Alban Kitous, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Roberto Schaeffer
Summary: This study examines the usefulness of global integrated assessment model (IAM) results for policy recommendations in specific regions and investigates the variation in results and factors influencing them. Using the case of Brazil's bioenergy use, the study finds that the current global IAM have limited potential to provide robust insights into regional mitigation strategies, calling for improved regional representation in future models.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Florian Leblanc, Ruben Bibas, Silvana Mima, Matteo Muratori, Shogo Sakamoto, Fuminori Sano, Nico Bauer, Vassilis Daioglou, Shinichiro Fujimori, Matthew J. Gidden, Estsushi Kato, Steven K. Rose, Junichi Tsutsui, Detlef P. van Vuuren, John Weyant, Marshall Wise
Summary: The paper highlights the potential of bioenergy to reduce transport GHG emissions, although it may not be the dominant solution. Lignocellulosic fuels could play a significant role in decarbonizing transportation sector, but the limited biomass supply and uncertainties in allocation to and within the sector are key factors affecting the use of biofuels in transport.
Correction
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Diego Silva Herran, Shinichiro Fujimori
SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Energy & Fuels
Ken Oshiro, Shinichiro Fujimori
Summary: Hydrogen-based energy carriers are expected to play an important role in reducing residual carbon dioxide emissions, but their competitiveness and complementarity with other mitigation options are still uncertain. However, under stringent mitigation scenarios or in the absence of carbon capture and storage, hydrogen-based energy carriers have the potential to account for 10-15% of total energy demand.
Article
Agricultural Engineering
Risper Nyairo, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Wenchao Wu, Kiyoshi Takahashi
Summary: This paper analyzes the impacts of urban area extension and land conservation on bioenergy supply potential using an integrated assessment model. It finds that while the global effects are small, the impacts vary in different regions and urbanization becomes important for some regions. The study suggests promoting compact urbanization, regional planning, and energy conservation policies to mitigate the loss of bioenergy potential.
BIOMASS & BIOENERGY
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Steven K. Rose, Alexander Popp, Shinichiro Fujimori, Petr Havlik, John Weyant, Marshall Wise, Detlef van Vuuren, Thierry Brunelle, Ryna Yiyun Cui, Vassilis Daioglou, Stefan Frank, Tomoko Hasegawa, Florian Humpenoder, Etsushi Kato, Ronald D. Sands, Fuminori Sano, Junichi Tsutsui, Jonathan Doelman, Matteo Muratori, Remi Prudhomme, Kenichi Wada, Hiromi Yamamoto
Summary: Bioenergy plays a prominent role in climate management, but there is limited understanding of biomass supply modeling. Through analyzing ten global models, we gain insights into biomass supply tendencies and differences, providing a transparent understanding of estimated global biomass supplies and supporting evaluation of bioenergy potential and interpretation of integrated modeling.
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Shiya Zhao, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Ken Oshiro, Katsuya Sasaki
Summary: Many countries have implemented stringent climate policies to reduce the risks of climate change, but these policies can impose additional costs on households and the poor, threatening their well-being. However, the impact of climate policies on poverty and welfare loss is often overlooked. This study analyzes the distributional effects and poverty implications of carbon pricing in China during the transition to carbon neutrality and the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. The findings suggest that climate change mitigation efforts would not significantly hinder poverty alleviation in China.
SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Studies
Bundit Limmeechokchai, Salony Rajbhandari, Bijay B. Pradhan, Puttipong Chunark, Achiraya Chaichaloempreecha, Shinichiro Fujimori, Ken Oshiro, Yuki Ochi
Summary: Thailand's NDC aims to reduce 20 to 25% of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. However, achieving more stringent reduction targets requires significant transformations in Thailand's fossil fuel-dependent energy system. A computable general equilibrium analysis reveals that renewable energy and carbon capture and storage technologies will play a major role in the power generation mix by 2050 if 100% GHG emission reduction is to be achieved.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Chae Yeon Park, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Fang Li, Junya Takakura, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Akihiko Ito, Dong Kun Lee, Wim Thiery
Summary: Fires and their emissions have multiple impacts on the environment and society, including negative effects on human health, terrestrial ecosystems, and climate change. Previous studies focused on the influence of climate change and population growth but didn't consider the compound effects of economic development and land use change. In this research, we analyzed fire carbon emissions in the 21st century by changing five factors. Global future fire carbon emissions were found to decrease due to increased GDP per capita and improved fire management. Meteorological factors had a strong influence, with boreal forests expected to experience increased fires due to fuel dryness. This study provides valuable insights for climate change researchers to consider fire-carbon interactions and develop mitigation and adaptation plans.
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Takahiro Oda, Jun'ya Takakura, Longlong Tang, Toshichika Iizumi, Norihiro Itsubo, Haruka Ohashi, Masashi Kiguchi, Naoko Kumano, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Masahiro Tanoue, Makoto Tamura, Qian Zhou, Naota Hanasaki, Tomoko Hasegawa, Chan Park, Yasuaki Hijioka, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Yasushi Honda, Tetsuya Matsui, Hiroyuki Matsuda, Hiromune Yokoki, Taikan Oki
Summary: This study estimates the aggregated cost of climate change by using an integrated assessment model and detailed-process-based climate impact models, along with different discount rates for market and non-market values. The results show that setting a lower discount rate for non-market value, i.e., a higher estimate for future value, makes the aggregated cost of achieving the Paris Agreement economically reasonable.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Ken Oshiro, Shiya Zhao, Katsuya Sasaki, Junya Takakura, Kiyoshi Takahashi
Summary: Many countries have set ambitious long-term emissions reduction targets to align with the Paris Agreement, but such efforts may have adverse effects on poverty through economic channels. Our study shows that climate change mitigation, excluding climate change impacts, has the potential to increase global poverty by 69 million (19%) in 2030, mainly driven by income and price changes. However, measures such as emission regulations and enhanced energy efficiency standards can help mitigate this adverse side effect.
SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Shujuan Xia, Jun 'ya Takakura, Wenchao Wu, Julia L. Blanchard, Ryan F. Heneghan, Takashi Yamakawa, Kazuaki Tsuchiya, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi
Summary: Reducing meat consumption, especially ruminant meat, can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, agricultural land use, and improve human health. This study examines the potential of forage fish as a substitute for ruminant meat by 2050 and finds that it could replace 10% of global ruminant meat consumption, leading to reductions in GHG emissions and land use by up to 15% and 10% respectively. Additionally, the consumption of forage fish can increase intake of essential nutrients in deficient regions. Effective fisheries management and sociocultural acceptance are key to realizing the potential of forage fish.
SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Ken Oshiro, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Asayama, Hiroto Shiraki, Kiyoshi Takahashi
Summary: To achieve net-zero carbon emissions, a rapid transition from hydrocarbon-based energy to renewables and broad electrification is necessary. Utilizing carbon capture and utilization (CCU) to produce synthetic fuels could potentially maintain some existing energy infrastructure, however, it presents challenges in terms of feasibility and higher mitigation costs compared to scenarios using renewables and carbon dioxide removal.
Correction
Food Science & Technology
Shinichiro Fujimori, Wenchao Wu, Jonathan Doelman, Stefan Frank, Jordan Hristov, Page Kyle, Ronald Sands, Willem-Jan van Zeist, Petr Havlik, Ignacio Perez Dominguez, Amarendra Sahoo, Elke Stehfest, Andrzej Tabeau, Hugo Valin, Hans van Meijl, Tomoko Hasegawa, Kiyoshi Takahashi
Article
Food Science & Technology
Shinichiro Fujimori, Wenchao Wu, Jonathan Doelman, Stefan Frank, Jordan Hristov, Page Kyle, Ronald Sands, Willem-Jan Van Zeist, Petr Havlik, Ignacio Perez Dominguez, Amarendra Sahoo, Elke Stehfest, Andrzej Tabeau, Hugo Valin, Hans van Meijl, Tomoko Hasegawa, Kiyoshi Takahashi
Summary: Efforts to reduce emissions in the agriculture, forestry, and land-use sector are crucial for achieving climate change mitigation goals, but their impact on food security is not well understood. This study, using global agroeconomic models, examines how afforestation, bioenergy, and non-CO2 emissions reductions could affect agricultural prices and the risk of hunger. Results show that afforestation has a significant impact on food security compared to non-CO2 emissions policies, highlighting the need for coordination in emissions reduction and agricultural market management policies.
