The economics of renewable energy power in China

Affected by user demand and policy, the technological innovation speed and economic efficiency of different power technologies will change internally. By setting different policy scenarios, based on the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) model, the paper comprehensively compared the impact of different policy portfolios and policy input intensity on the economics and stage of power technologies, and the market competitiveness evolution of coal power and renewable energy power is mainly analyzed. After 2020, with the increase in coal fuel prices and the acceleration of nuclear power technology learning, the LCOE of coal power has shown an upward trend, while the LCOE of nuclear power has shown the declining year by year. With the positive effects of technological innovation and diffusion, the LCOE of solar photovoltaic power (PV), and centralized solar power (CSP) technologies has also shown a downward trend year by year. In Scenario 1, continuing the existing energy policies, the LCOE of wind power, solar PV and CSP was significantly lower than coal power in 2040. In Scenario 2, implementing low-level coal resource tax, environmental tax, carbon tax and PV price subsidy, the LCOE of wind power and solar PV power was lower than coal power in 2030, and the LCOE of CSP was lower than coal power in 2040. In Scenario 3, implementing more rigorous energy policies, with the obvious economic advantages, the alternative of new energy power sources such as wind power and solar PV power is stronger. Graphic abstract

Automated summary

This paper finds that the LCOE of new energy technologies is decreasing year by year, showing strong market competitiveness, while the LCOE of coal power is trending upward annually. Different policy scenarios have a significant impact on the economic efficiency and competitiveness of power technologies.