Operational forecasting for Sanchi oil spill

This article demonstrates an operational oil spill forecasting system established by National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC). Satellite observations, oil spill models and operational meteooceanographic forecasts are integrated into the system. The system was applied to the forecasting service for a condensate and heavy fuel oil spill, which was caused by Sanchi oil tanker due to collision in East China Sea in 2018. Emergency forecasts of the satellite-observed slick were provided on daily basis. The leakage scenarios from the submerged tanker were also simulated. Long-term simulations were performed to evaluate the possible swept sea areas. Validation studies for the operational predictions were carried out for the wind, current and oil distribution. The forecasting conclusions were used to support decision-making process and clean-up actions during the response. This forecasting system could contribute to the setup of a shared system expected from the national level and further to the regional level, i.e., the countries boarding the common sea regions.

Automated summary

This article presents an operational oil spill forecasting system established by the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC), which integrates satellite observations, oil spill models, and operational meteorological and oceanographic forecasts. The system was applied to a condensate and heavy fuel oil spill caused by a collision involving the Sanchi oil tanker in the East China Sea in 2018. Emergency forecasts and leakage scenarios were provided, with long-term simulations conducted to evaluate possible affected sea areas. Validation studies were carried out for wind, current, and oil distribution predictions, and the forecasting conclusions were used to support decision-making processes and clean-up actions during the response. The system could potentially lead to a shared system at both national and regional levels.