4.7 Article

A spatiotemporal hierarchical attention mechanism-based model for multi-step station-level crowd flow prediction

Journal

INFORMATION SCIENCES
Volume 544, Issue -, Pages 308-324

Publisher

ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.ins.2020.07.049

Keywords

Crowd flow forecast; Multi-step ahead prediction; Hierarchical attention mechanism; Multi-output regression; Spatio-temporal analysis

Funding

  1. National Natural Science Foundation of China [41871284, 61806211]

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Ms-SLCFP aims to predict the crowd flow at stations in multiple future time periods, benefiting decision making. To address the fluctuation and spatiotemporal correlations of crowd flow, the ST-HAttn model, based on deep neural networks and attention mechanisms, is proposed.
Multi-step station-level crowd flow prediction (Ms-SLCFP) is to predict the count of people that would depart from or arrive at subway/bus/bike stations in multiple future consecutive time periods. By providing a long term view, it benefits the decision making in related applications, such as public safety, traffic management, etc. However, performing Ms-SLCFP is challenging as complicated spatiotemporal correlations are formed among stations due to the flowing crowd. Besides, the crowd flow at a single station fluctuates a lot though the regularity is obvious at the regional level. To tackle such issues, we propose a deep neural networks-based model with spatiotemporal hierarchical attention mechanisms, called ST-HAttn for short, for Ms-SLCFP. The notable contributions are that ST-HAttn performs attention mechanisms (AM) in two ways: 1) implementing AM at both station level and regional level; 2) implementing AM to explicitly model the pairwise correlations of station-region instead of station-station. The intuition is to alleviate the negative impact on Ms-SLCFP due to the fluctuation of the crowd flow at the station level. Verified on three real-world datasets, ST-HAttn outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in terms of Ms-SLCFP. (C) 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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