4.6 Article

Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains

Journal

CLIMATE DYNAMICS
Volume 57, Issue 5-6, Pages 1615-1628

Publisher

SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05539-1

Keywords

Atmospheric water balance; CORDEX-CORE; Climate change; RegCM4

Funding

  1. Janos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
  2. Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (CAPES, Brazil) [001]
  3. Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico-Brazil (CNPq) [422042/2018-8, 420262/2018-0]
  4. Newton Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership Brazil (CSSP Brazil)
  5. DFG/FAPESP [IRTG 1740/TRP 2011/50151-0, 2015/50122-0]
  6. National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change Phase 2 under CNPq [465501/2014-1]

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This study evaluates the changes in the atmospheric water budget and precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario over two CORDEX-CORE domains. The results show varied patterns of precipitation changes in South America and Europe, with different drivers in different regions and seasons.
This study evaluates the projected changes in the atmospheric water budget and precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario over two CORDEX-CORE domains: South America (SAM) and Europe (EUR). An ensemble of five twenty-first century projections with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) and their driving Global Climate Models (GCMs) are analyzed in terms of the atmospheric water budget terms (precipitation, P; evapotranspiration, ET; and moisture flux convergence, C). Special focus is on four subregions: Amazon (AMZ), La Plata basin (LPB), Mid-Europe (ME) and Eastern Europe (EA). The precipitation change signal in SAM presents a dipole pattern, i.e. drier conditions in AMZ and wetter conditions in LPB. Over the two European regions a seasonality is evident, with an increase of similar to 25% in precipitation for DJF and a decrease of similar to 35% in JJA. The atmospheric water budget drivers of precipitation change vary by region and season. For example, in DJF the main drivers are related to the large-scale moisture flux convergence, while in JJA over the AMZ atmospheric moisture flux convergence plays only a minor role and local processes dominate. For JJA in the GCMs the high values of the residual term do not allow us to assess which mechanisms drive the precipitation change signal over the AMZ and LPB, respectively. Same conclusions are found for the RegCM4 JJA simulations over the LPB and EA. This points to the importance of the spatial resolution of climate simulations and the role of parameterization schemes in climate models. Our work illustrates the usefulness of analyzing regional water budgets for a better understanding of precipitation change patterns around our globe.

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