Climate change has different predicted effects on the range shifts of two hybridizing ambush bug (Phymata, FamilyReduviidae, Order Hemiptera) species

Aim A universal attribute of species is that their distributions are limited by numerous factors that may be difficult to quantify. Furthermore, climate change-induced range shifts have been reported in many taxa, and understanding the implications of these shifts remains a priority and a challenge. Here, we use Maxent to predict current suitable habitat and to project future distributions of two closely related, parapatrically distributedPhymataspecies in light of anthropogenic climate change. Location North America. Taxon Phymata americanaMelin 1930 andPhymata pennsylvanicaHandlirsch 1897, Family:Reduviidae, Order: Hemiptera. Methods We used the maximum entropy modeling software Maxent to identify environmental variables maintaining the distribution of twoPhymataspecies,Phymata americanaandPhymata pennsylvanica. Species occurrence data were collected from museum databases, and environmental data were collected from WorldClim. Once we gathered distribution maps for both species, we created binary suitability maps of current distributions. To predict future distributions in 2050 and 2070, the same environmental variables were used, this time under four different representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5; as well, binary suitability maps of future distributions were also created. To visualize potential future hybridization, the degree of overlap between the twoPhymataspecies was calculated. Results The strongest predictor toP. americanaranges was the mean temperature of the warmest quarter, while precipitation of the driest month and mean temperature of the warmest quarter were strong predictors ofP. pennsylvanicaranges. Future ranges forP. americanaare predicted to increase northwestward at higher CO(2)concentrations. Suitable ranges forP. pennsylvanicaare predicted to decrease with slight fluctuations around range edges. There is an increase in overlapping ranges of the two species in all future predictions. Main conclusions These evidences for different environmental requirements forP. americanaandP. pennsylvanicaaccount for their distinct ranges. Because these species are ecologically similar and can hybridize, climate change has potentially important eco-evolutionary ramifications. Overall, our results are consistent with effects of climate change that are highly variable across species, geographic regions, and over time.