Stability analysis and prediction of pacing in elite 1500 m freestyle male swimmers

This study aimed to analyse the stability of elite male long-distance swimmers (1500 m), and to identify the main predictors related to the pace. The performance of 16 elite male swimmers (22.59 +/- 2.10 years-old) participating in the 1500 m event at the 2016 (London) and 2018 (Glasgow) LEN European Aquatic Championships were analysed. The lap performance, clean swim performance, turn performance, and a set of stroke mechanics variables were assessed. The lap performance presented a significant and moderate variation with all laps included (p < 0.001) and deleting the first and last lap (p = 0.002). Swimmers were significantly faster in the first half in comparison of the second. The total turn also presented a significant and moderate variation. The hierarchical linear modelling retained the time (estimate = 0.0019, p = 0.007), stroke frequency (estimate = -27.49, p < 0.001) and stroke length (estimate = -6.55, p < 0.001) as the main predictors of the clean swim performance. By contrast to the analysis based on the lap performance, clean swim performance presented a non-significant variation. Coaches should be aware that stroke length maintenance could negatively affect the clean swim performance, whereas a small increase of stroke frequency may present a meaningful enhancement of the total race time.