Integrating QSAR models predicting acute contact toxicity and mode of action pro filing in honey bees ( A. mellifera ): Data curation using open source databases, performance testing and validation

Honey bees (Apis mellifera) provide key ecosystem services as pollinators bridging agriculture, the food chain and ecological communities, thereby ensuring food production and security. Ecological risk assessment of single Plant Protection Products (PPPs) requires an understanding of the exposure and toxicity. In silico tools such as QSAR models can play a major role for the prediction of structural, physico-chemical and pharmacokinetic properties of chemicals as well as toxicity of single and multiple chemicals. Here, the first integrative honey bee QSAR model has been developed for PPPs using EFSA's OpenFoodTox, US-EPA ECOTOX and Pesticide Properties DataBase i) to predict acute contact toxicity (LD50) and ii) to profile the Mode of Action (MoA) of pesticides active substances. Three different classification-based and four regression-based models were developed and tested for their performance, thus identifying two models providing the most reliable predictions based on k-NN algorithm. The two-category QSAR model (toxic/non-toxic; n = 411) was validated using sensitivity (=0.93), specificity (=0.85), balanced accuracy (=0.90), and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC = 0.78) as statistical parameters. The regression-based model (n = 113) was validated for its reliability and robustness (R-2 = 0.74; MAE = 0.52). Current study proposes the MoA profiling for 113 pesticides active substances and the first harmonised MoA classification scheme for acute contact toxicity in honey bees, including LD50s data points from three different databases. The classification allows to further define MoAs and the target site of PPPs active substances, thus enabling regulators and scientists to refine chemical grouping and toxicity extrapolations for single chemicals and component-based mixture risk assessment of multiple chemicals. Relevant future perspectives are briefly addressed to integrate MoA, adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) and toxicokinetic information for the refinement of single-chemical/combined toxicity predictions and risk estimates at different levels of biological organization in the bee health context.