Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Alan M. Rhoades, Mark D. Risser, Daithi A. Stone, Michael F. Wehner, Andrew D. Jones
Summary: The study shows that as global warming intensifies, the number of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) and the amount of water they transport will increase. The proportion of beneficial ARs will decrease, while the proportion of hazardous ARs will increase. This shift will result in a gradual increase in flood damages, highlighting the importance of climate mitigation efforts.
WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
S. H. Gebrechorkos, M. T. Taye, B. Birhanu, D. Solomon, T. Demissie
Summary: Climate change is causing impacts on agriculture, water, and energy sectors in East Africa, which are projected to intensify in the future. To assess these impacts and facilitate adaptation and mitigation measures, the study evaluated climate changes and their effects on hydrology and hydrological extremes in the region. Utilizing data from seven global climate models, the study downscaled the outputs to a high-resolution hydrological model. Results indicate that there will be an increase in annual precipitation in Ethiopia, Uganda, and Kenya, but a decrease in Southern Tanzania in the 2050s and 2080s. The study also projects increased precipitation during the long and short rainy seasons, as well as rising temperatures and evapotranspiration, highlighting the need for site-specific adaptation strategies throughout the 21st century.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Samantha Stevenson, Sloan Coats, Danielle Touma, Julia Cole, Flavio Lehner, John Fasullo, Bette Otto-Bliesner
Summary: Variability in hydroclimate has significant impacts on natural and human systems globally. This study shows that extreme precipitation events and decadal variability will be strongly influenced by climate change. The increasing frequency and intensity of both wet and dry precipitation events pose adaptation challenges beyond current experiences.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Ju-Mee Ryoo, Taejin Park
Summary: An atmospheric river (AR) is a vital component for regional hydroclimate systems, and its association with wildfire patterns in the western U.S. has been investigated. Record-high wildfire activity in 2020 was linked to hotter, drier, and windier conditions, with a shift in peak from July to August. ARs were found to be more frequent but weaker in the summer and less frequent in the fall of 2020 compared to 2016. Contrasting precipitation-wind patterns under ARs in 2020 and 2016 were observed, with dry-windy conditions in 2020 and wet-windy conditions in 2016.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Karen A. McKinnon, Andrew Poppick, Isla R. Simpson
Summary: Global humidity has been increasing due to warming, but the Southwest United States has experienced a decrease in summer humidity since 1950, particularly on hot days, linked to decreased soil moisture rather than atmospheric moisture transport. Uncertainty exists in projections due to variations in precipitation trends among models. The recent decrease in summer soil moisture in the region is explained by declines in June soil moisture, with future projections of hot, dry days uncertain due to differences in trends in soil moisture and precipitation.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2021)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Ryan Johnson, Steven John Burian, Carlos Anthony Oroza, James Halgren, Trevor Irons, Danyal Aziz, Daniyal Hassan, Jiada Li, Carly Hansen, Tracie Kirkham, Jesse Stewart, Laura Briefer
Summary: The study develops a Machine Learning Water Systems Model (ML-WSM) to address the challenges in sustainable western US municipal water system (MWS) management. By applying the ML-WSM to the Salt Lake City water system, the researchers demonstrate that the model can accurately predict the seasonal dynamics of the different components and classify instances of vulnerability and severity. The findings suggest that the ML-WSM can be used as a guidance tool to evaluate the influences of climate on MWS performance.
JOURNAL OF HYDROINFORMATICS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
John T. Abatzoglou, Caroline S. Juang, A. Park Williams, Crystal A. Kolden, Anthony LeRoy Westerling
Summary: The research shows a strong correlation between fire danger days in western US forests and strain on national fire suppression resources, with a projected doubling of synchronous fire danger days in the coming decades.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Dmitri A. Kalashnikov, Jordan L. Schnell, John T. Abatzoglou, Daniel L. Swain, Deepti Singh
Summary: Wildfires and meteorological conditions have a significant impact on the co-occurrence of PM2.5 and ground-level ozone in the western US. The frequency and intensity of these co-occurrences have increased over the past two decades, leading to an increase in population exposure to harmful air pollutants. The extent of co-occurrence is linked to atmospheric ridging patterns and the extent of extreme heat and wildfires.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Aglae Jezequel, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou
Summary: Diagnosing dynamical changes in the climate system, such as those in atmospheric circulation patterns, remains challenging. However, a study on the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic from 1950 to 2021 revealed significant trends. These trends have major impacts on surface climate, driving heatwaves across Europe and increased wintertime storminess in the northern part of the continent. The identified trends are statistically significant but not necessarily anthropogenic.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Wenyu Zhou, L. Ruby Leung, Jian Lu
Summary: This study investigates the responses of the hydroclimate and extremes in the U.S. Midwest to global warming, and finds that future precipitation will have a seasonal variation, with increased precipitation in late spring and reduced precipitation in late summer. This leads to increased late-spring floods and intensified late-summer droughts.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Geography
Todd W. Moore, Jennifer M. St. Clair, Michael P. McGuire
Summary: The study reveals the complex interactions among atmospheric ingredients leading to unique spatiotemporal combinations of tornado activity in different regions during different seasons, emphasizing the importance of attention to changes in atmospheric conditions as they could be contributing to changes in tornado activity in the United States.
ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF GEOGRAPHERS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jitendra Singh, Sebastian Sippel, Erich M. Fischer
Summary: Heat extremes have intensified globally in recent decades, with Western Europe experiencing a strong intensification and the Midwest United States showing weak warming or even a decrease in the intensity of heat extremes. This study reveals that the cooling effect induced by atmospheric circulation has reversed the thermodynamic warming trend in the Midwest United States, while in Western Europe, circulation has greatly amplified the warming trend. Understanding the causes of these circulation-induced trends is crucial for predicting future heat extremes.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Hamish D. Prince, Peter B. Gibson, Michael J. DeFlorio, Thomas W. Corringham, Alison Cobb, Bin Guan, F. Martin Ralph, Duane E. Waliser
Summary: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for the vast majority of flood damage in the Western U.S., causing an annual average of $1.1 billion in damages. Damaging ARs tend to have genesis locations further from the coastline, travel longer distances, and have higher moisture flux.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Xiaodong Chen, L. Ruby Leung, Ning Sun
Summary: This study introduces a new method called Weather Anomaly Clustering (WAC-hydro) for predicting both precipitation and temperature, which helps link large-scale climate conditions to regional hydroclimate conditions. By identifying 12 clusters of daily weather anomaly modes in the US Pacific Northwest Puget Sound region, this method provides insights into the flood mechanisms and their connections to climate variability modes.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Minmin Fu
Summary: During the last ice age, the presence of large ice sheets in North America caused increased precipitation and led to the formation of large lakes in the western United States. However, contrary to previous modeling studies, a new climate simulation called iTraCE showed that the peak in winter rainfall over the Great Basin occurred during the last deglaciation. This peak was driven by the strengthening and southward shift of the midlatitude jet, which was influenced by meltwater forcing, changing orbital conditions, and rising atmospheric CO2 levels.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Mark D. Risser, William D. Collins, Michael F. Wehner, Travis A. O'Brien, Christopher J. Paciorek, John P. O'Brien, Christina M. Patricola, Huanping Huang, Paul A. Ullrich, Burlen Loring
Summary: This study develops a framework for regional detection and attribution of precipitation using output from global climate models, and applies it to the contiguous United States. By conducting tests using model output, the study is able to detect systematic trends in precipitation, attribute these trends to anthropogenic forcings, compute the effects of forcings over time, and map the effects of individual forcings.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Christine A. Shields, Ashley E. Payne, Eric Jay Shearer, Michael F. Wehner, Travis Allen O'Brien, Jonathan J. Rutz, L. Ruby Leung, F. Martin Ralph, Allison B. Marquardt Collow, Paul A. Ullrich, Qizhen Dong, Alexander Gershunov, Helen Griffith, Bin Guan, Juan Manuel Lora, Mengqian Lu, Elizabeth McClenny, Kyle M. Nardi, Mengxin Pan, Yun Qian, Alexandre M. Ramos, Tamara Shulgina, Maximiliano Viale, Chandan Sarangi, Ricardo Tome, Colin Zarzycki
Summary: Atmospheric rivers are important for Earth's hydrological cycle, delivering precipitation to local climates. The response of atmospheric rivers to climate change depends on how they are defined. Comparing 16 detection tools, it is found that atmospheric rivers generally increase in frequency and intensity, but the scale of the response varies depending on algorithmic criteria. The precipitation response to climate change is diverse and dependent on the chosen detection tools.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, P. James Dennedy-Frank, Alan Rhoades, Pouya Vahmani, Fadji Maina, Benjamin Hatchett, Yang Zhou, Andrew Jones
Summary: In the coastal regions of the western United States, atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute significantly to precipitation, but their impact on groundwater storage and hydrodynamics is not well understood. To study this, a combination of two water tracking methods was used to track water parcels generated by ARs. Simulations showed that although ARs contribute more precipitation, less of it is stored in aquifers compared to non-AR storms. Rain-on-snow events were found to play an important role in AR-driven discharge. Despite record-breaking annual precipitation, groundwater depletion still occurred due to pumping activities.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Emily Bercos-Hickey, Christina M. Patricola, Burlen Loring, William D. Collins
Summary: Understanding the relationship between African easterly waves (AEWs) and tropical cyclones (TCs) is crucial for predicting the response of TCs to future climate change. Our study examined this relationship using three climate models and found that AEW strength, as well as environmental conditions conducive to strong TCs, are good predictors of AEWs that develop into TCs in both historical and future climates.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Karthik Balaguru, Wenwei Xu, Chuan-Chieh Chang, L. Ruby Leung, David R. Judi, Samson M. Hagos, Michael F. Wehner, James P. Kossin, Mingfang Ting
Summary: Several pathways have been proposed to explain how climate change may affect the U.S. coastal hurricane risk, but the physical mechanisms and possible connections between these pathways are still unclear. Future projections of hurricane activity (1980-2100), based on multiple climate models using a synthetic hurricane model, show an increased frequency of hurricanes in the Gulf and lower East coast regions. This increase in coastal hurricane frequency is mainly driven by changes in steering flow, which can be attributed to the development of an upper-level cyclonic circulation over the western Atlantic.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Mohammed Ombadi, Mark D. Risser, Alan M. Rhoades, Charuleka Varadharajan
Summary: The intensity of extreme precipitation events is projected to increase in a warmer climate, posing challenges to water sustainability. This study shows that the increase in rainfall extremes in high-elevation regions is double the rate expected from increases in atmospheric water vapour due to a shift from snow to rain. The findings highlight the vulnerability of high-altitude regions to extreme-rainfall-related hazards and the need for climate adaptation plans.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Chia-Ying Lee, Adam H. Sobel, Michael K. Tippett, Suzana J. Camargo, Marc Wuest, Michael Wehner, Hiroyuki Murakami
Summary: This manuscript discusses the challenges and uncertainties in detecting and attributing trends in recent Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity. By examining synthetic storms and high-resolution climate models, the study investigates the upward trend and multi-decadal oscillation of TC frequency, the increase in storm wind intensity, and the decrease in forward speed. The results show that the observed trends and oscillation may be forced or can be explained by natural variability. Projections under warming climate scenarios also demonstrate a wide range of possibilities, especially for annual frequencies. The uncertainties in TC frequency lead to uncertainties in risk assessment.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Andrew D. Jones, Deeksha Rastogi, Pouya Vahmani, Alyssa M. Stansfield, Kevin A. Reed, Travis Thurber, Paul A. Ullrich, Jennie S. Rice
Summary: Regional climate models are used to simulate analogue versions of past weather events under different climate conditions. This study downscaled a 40-year sequence of past weather using a range of time-evolving thermodynamic warming signals based on future warming trajectories. The resulting dataset provides insights into the possible range of future climate conditions and their effects on historical extreme events.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Aytac Pacal, Birgit Hassler, Katja Weigel, M. Levent Kurnaz, Michael F. Wehner, Veronika Eyring
Summary: Extreme temperature events are becoming more frequent globally, especially in tropical regions, according to a study using Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) to analyze temperature data. The analysis found that under 3.0°C of global warming, a 10-year extreme temperature event will occur 13.6 times more frequently compared to the conditions from 1985-2014. The study also highlighted that hot temperatures are increasing faster than cold temperatures in low latitudes, while the opposite is true for high latitudes.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2023)
Correction
Environmental Sciences
Sonali McDermid, Mallika Nocco, Patricia Lawston-Parker, Jessica Keune, Yadu Pokhrel, Meha Jain, Jonas Jagermeyr, Luca Brocca, Christian Massari, Andrew D. Jones, Pouya Vahmani, Wim Thiery, Yi Yao, Andrew Bell, Liang Chen, Wouter Dorigo, Naota Hanasaki, Scott Jasechko, Min-Hui Lo, Rezaul Mahmood, Vimal Mishra, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Dev Niyogi, Sam S. Rabin, Lindsey Sloat, Yoshihide Wada, Luca Zappa, Fei Chen, Benjamin I. Cook, Hyungjun Kim, Danica Lombardozzi, Jan Polcher, Dongryeol Ryu, Joe Santanello, Yusuke Satoh, Sonia Seneviratne, Deepti Singh, Tokuta Yokohata
NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Abhishekh Kumar Srivastava, Paul Aaron Ullrich, Deeksha Rastogi, Pouya Vahmani, Andrew Jones, Richard Grotjahn
Summary: This study evaluates the quality of historical precipitation simulated by the WRF v 4.2.1 model compared to ERA5 in the contiguous United States. The results show that the WRF model accurately captures the timing and magnitude of the summer diurnal precipitation peak, but exhibits a delayed diurnal peak over the Great Plains. The WRF model improves upon ERA5 in simulating the month and magnitude of the precipitation peak annual cycle. Additionally, the WRF model better represents the probability density distribution of annual and seasonal maximum precipitation compared to ERA5.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Zexuan Xu, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, Alan M. Rhoades, Daniel Feldman
Summary: This study utilizes meteorological data to simulate the processes of mountain hydrology, and through experiments, it is found that the variations in meteorological data have a greater impact on surface and subsurface hydrological processes than the variations in physics models.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Zeyu Xue, Paul Ullrich, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Summary: Intensified extreme precipitation and corresponding floods are the most relevant consequences of climate change in the northeastern US (NEUS). The pseudo-global warming (PGW) method, commonly used to evaluate the impacts of climate change, lacks precise definition and guidelines, limiting its application. This study examines the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from PGW experiments and recommends using temperature or a combination of temperature and wind at the grid point scale for future research.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
David H. Marsico, Paul A. Ullrich
Summary: This paper explores several traditional and novel approaches for both conservative and non-conservative monotone remapping on the sphere, and evaluates the accuracy and effectiveness of these algorithms in the context of several different real and idealized fields and meshes.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Bryce E. Harrop, Karthik Balaguru, Jean-Christophe Golaz, L. Ruby Leung, Salil Mahajan, Alan M. Rhoades, Paul A. Ullrich, Chengzhu Zhang, Xue Zheng, Tian Zhou, Peter M. Caldwell, Noel D. Keen, Azamat Mametjanov
Summary: This study evaluates the impact of different resolutions on the water cycle over the conterminous United States. The results show that higher resolution and warm season lead to decreased fluxes in the water cycle, with improvements in evapotranspiration and mixed results in other terms. The study also examines exploratory metrics and finds modest improvements in precipitation extremes, storm event contributions, and mountain snowpack.
JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
(2023)
