4.5 Article

The conservation status and population decline of the African penguin deconstructed in space and time

Journal

ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
Volume 10, Issue 15, Pages 8506-8516

Publisher

WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/ece3.6554

Keywords

Bayesian state-space model; Benguela ecosystem; extinction risk; IUCN Red List assessment; population dynamics; seabird conservation

Funding

  1. Pew Charitable Trusts

Ask authors/readers for more resources

Understanding changes in abundance is crucial for conservation, but population growth rates often vary over space and time. We use 40 years of count data (1979-2019) and Bayesian state-space models to assess the African penguinSpheniscus demersuspopulation under IUCN Red List Criterion A. We deconstruct the overall decline in time and space to identify where urgent conservation action is needed. The global African penguin population met the threshold forEndangeredwith a high probability (97%), having declined by almost 65% since 1989. An historical low of similar to 17,700 pairs bred in 2019. Annual changes were faster in the South African population (-4.2%, highest posterior density interval, HPDI: -7.8 to -0.6%) than the Namibian one (-0.3%, HPDI: -3.3 to +2.6%), and since 1999 were almost -10% at South African colonies north of Cape Town. Over the 40-year period, the Eastern Cape colonies went from holding similar to 25% of the total penguin population to similar to 40% as numbers decreased more rapidly elsewhere. These changes coincided with an altered abundance and availability of the main prey of African penguins. Our results underline the dynamic nature of population declines in space as well as time and highlight which penguin colonies require urgent conservation attention.

Authors

I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.

Reviews

Primary Rating

4.5
Not enough ratings

Secondary Ratings

Novelty
-
Significance
-
Scientific rigor
-
Rate this paper

Recommended

Article Biodiversity Conservation

Testing a global standard for quantifying species recovery and assessing conservation impact

Molly K. Grace, H. Resit Akcakaya, Elizabeth L. Bennett, Thomas M. Brooks, Anna Heath, Simon Hedges, Craig Hilton-Taylor, Michael Hoffmann, Axel Hochkirch, Richard Jenkins, David A. Keith, Barney Long, David P. Mallon, Erik Meijaard, E. J. Milner-Gulland, Jon Paul Rodriguez, P. J. Stephenson, Simon N. Stuart, Richard P. Young, Pablo Acebes, Joanna Alfaro-Shigueto, Silvia Alvarez-Clare, Raphali Rodlis Andriantsimanarilafy, Marina Arbetman, Claudio Azat, Gianluigi Bacchetta, Ruchi Badola, Luis M. D. Barcelos, Joao Pedro Barreiros, Sayanti Basak, Danielle J. Berger, Sabuj Bhattacharyya, Gilad Bino, Paulo A. Borges, Raoul K. Boughton, H. Jane Brockmann, Hannah L. Buckley, Ian J. Burfield, James Burton, Teresa Camacho-Badani, Luis Santiago Cano-Alonso, Ruth H. Carmichael, Christina Carrero, John P Carroll, Giorgos Catsadorakis, David G. Chapple, Guillaume Chapron, Gawsia Wahidunnessa Chowdhury, Louw Claassens, Donatella Cogoni, Rochelle Constantine, Christie Anne Craig, Andrew A. Cunningham, Nishma Dahal, Jennifer C. Daltry, Goura Chandra Das, Niladri Dasgupta, Alexandra Davey, Katharine Davies, Pedro Develey, Vanitha Elangovan, David Fairclough, Mirko Di Febbraro, Giuseppe Fenu, Fernando Moreira Fernandes, Eduardo Pinheiro Fernandez, Brittany Finucci, Rita Foldesi, Catherine M. Foley, Matthew Ford, Michael R. J. Forstner, Nestor Garcia, Ricardo Garcia-Sandoval, Penny C. Gardner, Roberto Garibay-Orijel, Marites Gatan-Balbas, Irene Gauto, Mirza Ghazanfar Ullah Ghazi, Stephanie S. Godfrey, Matthew Gollock, Benito A. Gonzalez, Tandora D. Grant, Thomas Gray, Andrew J. Gregory, Roy H. A. van Grunsven, Marieka Gryzenhout, Noelle C. Guernsey, Garima Gupta, Christina Hagen, Christian A. Hagen, Madison B. Hall, Eric Hallerman, Kelly Hare, Tom Hart, Ruston Hartdegen, Yvette Harvey-Brown, Richard Hatfield, Tahneal Hawke, Claudia Hermes, Rod Hitchmough, Pablo Melo Hoffmann, Charlie Howarth, Michael A. Hudson, Syed Ainul Hussain, Charlie Huveneers, Helene Jacques, Dennis Jorgensen, Suyash Katdare, Lydia K. D. Katsis, Rahul Kaul, Boaz Kaunda-Arara, Lucy Keith-Diagne, Daniel T. Kraus, Thales Moreira de Lima, Ken Lindeman, Jean Linsky, Edward Louis, Anna Loy, Eimear Nic Lughadha, Jeffrey C. Mangel, Paul E. Marinari, Gabriel M. Martin, Gustavo Martinelli, Philip J. K. McGowan, Alistair McInnes, Eduardo Teles Barbosa Mendes, Michael J. Millard, Claire Mirande, Daniel Money, Joanne M. Monks, Carolina Laura Morales, Nazia Naoreen Mumu, Raquel Negrao, Anh Ha Nguyen, Md Nazmul Hasan Niloy, Grant Leslie Norbury, Cale Nordmeyer, Darren Norris, Mark O'Brien, Gabriela Akemi Oda, Simone Orsenigo, Mark Evan Outerbridge, Stesha Pasachnik, Juan Carlos Perez-Jimenez, Charlotte Pike, Fred Pilkington, Glenn Plumb, Rita de Cassia Quitete Portela, Ana Prohaska, Manuel G. Quintana, Eddie Fanantenana Rakotondrasoa, Dustin H. Ranglack, Hassan Rankou, Ajay Prakash Rawat, James Thomas Reardon, Marcelo Lopes Rheingantz, Stephen C. Richter, Malin C. Rivers, Luke Rollie Rogers, Patricia da Rosa, Paul Rose, Emily Royer, Catherine Ryan, Yvonne J. Sadovy de Mitcheson, Lily Salmon, Carlos Henrique Salvador, Michael J. Samways, Tatiana Sanjuan, Amanda Souza Dos Santos, Hiroshi Sasaki, Emmanuel Schutz, Heather Ann Scott, Robert Michael Scott, Fabrizio Serena, Surya P. Sharma, John A. Shuey, Carlos Julio Polo Silva, John P. Simaika, David R. Smith, Julia L. Y. Spaet, Shanjida Sultana, Bibhab Kumar Talukdar, Vikash Tatayah, Philip Thomas, Angela Tringali, Hoang Trinh-Dinh, Chongpi Tuboi, Aftab Alam Usmani, Aida M. Vasco-Palacios, Jean-Christophe Vie, Jo Virens, Alan Walker, Bryan Wallace, Lauren J. Waller, Hongfeng Wang, Oliver R. Wearn, Merlijn van Weerd, Simon Weigmann, Daniel Willcox, John Woinarski, Jean W. H. Yong, Stuart Young

Summary: In response to the need for evaluating species recovery and conservation impact, IUCN proposed the development of a Green List of Species in 2012, which was later refined into the IUCN Green Status of Species. A draft Green Status framework published in 2018 introduced standardized methods for assessing species recovery progress, resulting in proposed species recovery categories and the observation that 59% of tested species were largely or critically depleted. While there was a negative relationship between extinction risk and species recovery score, there was considerable variation, with some lower risk species further from recovery than higher risk species.

CONSERVATION BIOLOGY (2021)

Article Biodiversity Conservation

Strategic discarding reduces seabird numbers and contact rates with trawl fishery gears in the Southwest Atlantic

Amanda Kuepfer, Richard B. Sherley, Paul Brickle, Alexander Arkhipkin, Stephen C. Votier

Summary: Incidental mortality in trawl fisheries poses a serious threat to seabird sustainability. Strategic batch discarding is an effective mitigation measure to limit discard discharge, but supporting studies are rare. This study validates the efficacy of batch discarding as a mitigation measure in the Falkland Islands trawl fleet and highlights the importance of complete waste storage.

BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION (2022)

Article Fisheries

South Africa's experimental fisheries closures and recovery of the endangered African penguin

William J. Sydeman, George L. Hunt, Ellen K. Pikitch, Julia K. Parrish, John F. Piatt, P. Dee Boersma, Les Kaufman, Daniel W. Anderson, Sarah Ann Thompson, Richard B. Sherley

Summary: South Africa implemented a decade-long field experiment to understand the impact of fisheries on African penguins, showing that fisheries closures within the birds' primary foraging range increased breeding productivity. Recommendations include maintaining fisheries closures and establishing closed areas during the non-breeding season to increase penguin food supplies.

ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE (2021)

Correction Biology

Bayesian inference reveals positive but subtle effects of experimental fishery closures on marine predator demographics (vol 285, 20172443, 2018)

Richard B. Sherley, Barbara J. Barham, Peter J. Barham, Kate J. Campbell, Robert J. M. Crawford, Jennifer Grigg, Cat Horswill, Alistair McInnes, Taryn L. Morris, Lorien Pichegru, Antje Steinfurth, Florian Weller, Henning Winker, Stephen C. Votier

PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES (2021)

Article Environmental Sciences

Using Predicted Patterns of 3D Prey Distribution to Map King Penguin Foraging Habitat

Roland Proud, Camille Le Guen, Richard B. Sherley, Akiko Kato, Yan Ropert-Coudert, Norman Ratcliffe, Simon Jarman, Adam Wyness, John P. Y. Arnould, Ryan A. Saunders, Paul G. Fernandes, Lars Boehme, Andrew S. Brierley

Summary: Research on king penguins off South Georgia in 2017 revealed that they primarily forage near shallow and dense fish schools associated with deep scattering layers, consisting mainly of lanternfish, icefish, and painted noties. The diving behavior of penguins overlaps at fine scale with the depth distribution of fish schools, and neural network models were used to predict their habitat preferences.

FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE (2021)

Article Fisheries

Prey-switching to fishery discards does not compensate for poor natural foraging conditions in breeding albatross

Amanda Kuepfer, Stephen C. Votier, Richard B. Sherley, Francesco Ventura, Rafael Matias, Orea Anderson, Paul Brickle, Alexander Arkhipkin, Paulo Catry

Summary: Fishery discards can be beneficial for black-browed albatross populations, but may also have negative impacts by increasing bycatch risk or providing junk-food. This study found that black-browed albatrosses in the Falkland Islands switch to consuming discards when natural feeding opportunities are unfavorable, but discards do not compensate for poor natural foraging conditions in the long term.

ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE (2022)

Editorial Material Fisheries

African Penguins and Localized Fisheries Management: Response to Butterworth and Ross-Gillespie

W. J. Sydeman, G. L. Hunt, E. K. Pikitch, J. K. Parrish, J. F. Piatt, P. D. Boersma, L. Kaufman, D. W. Anderson, S. A. Thompson, R. B. Sherley

Summary: This paper responds to Butterworth and Ross-Gillespie's comment on the impact of forage fish fisheries on the endangered African penguin and management options. The study demonstrates that their criticism of pseudo-replication is weak and emphasizes the negative effects of forage fisheries on penguin population health. Considering the depletion of sardines and the conservation crisis facing the African penguin, the paper advocates for continuing precautionary closures to facilitate population growth.

ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE (2022)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Important marine areas for endangered African penguins before and after the crucial stage of moulting

Tegan Carpenter-Kling, Andrew de Blocq, Christina Hagen, Craig Harding, Taryn Morris, Lorien Pichegru, Jennifer Roberts, Peter G. Ryan, Ross M. Wanless, Alistair McInnes

Summary: The population of Endangered African penguins has declined significantly in the last 20 years due to reduced availability of their main prey. Research has shown that these penguins have larger foraging ranges during the non-breeding season, but they still heavily rely on waters within 20 and 50 km of their breeding colonies.

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS (2022)

Article Biodiversity Conservation

Marine Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas in the Chagos Archipelago

Peter Carr, Alice M. Trevail, Heather J. Koldewey, Richard B. Sherley, Tim Wilkinson, Hannah Wood, Stephen C. Votier

Summary: Seabirds are facing global decline and require protection on both land and sea. The Chagos Archipelago in the central Indian Ocean has proposed marine Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (mIBAs) in addition to terrestrial sites. This study uses updated seabird information and GPS tracking to identify a single mIBA that falls entirely within the Chagos Archipelago Marine Protected Area. This research emphasizes the importance of large-scale marine protected areas for the conservation of marine predators and provides a foundation for future studies on marine biodiversity hotspots in the central Indian Ocean.

BIRD CONSERVATION INTERNATIONAL (2022)

Article Ecology

Intercolony variation in reproductive skipping in the African penguin

Freddie W. Leith, Jennifer L. Grigg, Barbara J. Barham, Peter J. Barham, Katrin Ludynia, Cuan McGeorge, Andile Mdluli, Nola J. Parsons, Lauren J. Waller, Richard B. Sherley

Summary: Reproductive skipping is a common strategy observed in long-lived species, and it can be an adaptive decision or driven by individual-specific constraints. This study investigates the survival and breeding probabilities of African penguins at two colonies and identifies inter-colony differences linked to food availability. The study also reveals reproductive skipping behavior in both colonies, with lower future breeding probability for individuals that skipped reproduction. The lower survival and breeding propensity at Robben Island highlight the need for conservation efforts in this colony.

ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION (2022)

Article Fisheries

A framework for studying ecological energy in the contemporary marine environment

Molly M. Kressler, Sasha R. X. Dall, Richard B. Sherley

Summary: Historic limitations in marine ecological studies have led to the neglect of well-established concepts from behavioural ecology, mainly due to the inadequacy of available methods in addressing the large-scale ecological processes and sampling resolution in the marine environment. However, with advancements in technology, data management, and statistical modelling, researchers are now able to fully embrace behavioural ecology concepts and study marine ecological interactions from a holistic perspective. This article proposes a novel perspective and workflow called Seascape of Ecological Energy (SEE-scapes), which integrates accumulated knowledge from marine biology and behavioural ecology research, providing guidance for marine scientists interested in grounding their research in behavioural ecology's first principles. SEE-scapes focuses on relevant considerations for contemporary seascapes, taking into account the relationships between individuals and their conspecifics, competitors, predators, and the abiotic environment in the marine ecosystem.

ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE (2023)

Article Marine & Freshwater Biology

Inter-colony and inter-annual variation in discard use by albatross chicks revealed using isotopes and regurgitates

Amanda Kuepfer, Paulo Catry, Stuart Bearhop, Richard B. Sherley, Olivia Bell, Jason Newton, Paul Brickle, Alexander Arkhipkin, Stephen C. Votier

Summary: Effective marine ecosystem monitoring is critical for sustainable management. Monitoring seabird diets can provide important information on ecosystem health and seabird-fishery interactions. This study combines stomach content analysis (SCA) and stable isotope analysis (SIA) to examine the diet of black-browed albatross chicks, with a focus on fishery discard consumption.

MARINE BIOLOGY (2023)

Article Environmental Sciences

Factors determining the number of seabirds impacted by oil spills and the success of their rehabilitation: Lessons learned from Namibia and South Africa

Ralph E. T. Vanstreels, Nola J. Parsons, Richard B. Sherley, Nicky Stander, Venessa Strauss, Jessica Kemper, Lauren Waller, Barbara J. Barham, Katrin Ludynia

Summary: The coastal waters of Namibia and South Africa have a long history of oil spills, with 71 recorded up to 2021. These spills have had significant impacts on seabirds, particularly African penguins (91.0%) and Cape gannets (8.5%). The main sources of these spills include unknown origins, bulk/cargo carriers, tankers, and ship-to-ship transfers. Monitoring the breeding population size within a specific range has shown to predict the number of oiled penguins, while the admission day of oiled birds is indicative of their rehabilitation success.

MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN (2023)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Demographic rates reveal the benefits of protected areas in a long-lived migratory bird

Andrea Soriano-Redondo, Richard Inger, Richard B. Sherley, Eileen C. Rees, Fitsum Abadi, Graham McElwaine, Kendrew Colhoun, Olafur Einarsson, Sverrir Thorstensen, Julia Newth, Kane Brides, David J. Hodgson, Stuart Bearhop

Summary: Recent studies indicate that protected areas often fail to effectively safeguard target species. This study focuses on the value of nature reserves in conserving migratory waterbirds, specifically Whooper swans. The research findings show that while breeding probability is lower among swans wintering inside nature reserves, their survival rates are higher, resulting in a 30-fold increase in annual growth rate within the reserves. Furthermore, there is a net movement of individuals from nature reserves to non-reserves. The population projection models predict that by 2030, nature reserves could double the number of swans wintering in the United Kingdom.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2023)

Article Biochemical Research Methods

Geolocator-tracking seabird migration and moult reveal large-scale, temperature-driven isoscapes in the NE Atlantic

Kelly Atkins, Stuart Bearhop, Thomas W. W. Bodey, W. James Grecian, Keith Hamer, Jorge M. M. Pereira, Hannah Meinertzhagen, Chris Mitchell, Greg Morgan, Lisa Morgan, Jason Newton, Richard B. B. Sherley, Stephen C. C. Votier

Summary: Combining precision satellite-tracking with blood sampling, this study explores the potential of using seabird geolocators and feather sampling to validate large-scale isotopic patterns. By matching winter-grown feathers with the non-breeding location of tracked birds, the study reveals latitudinal gradients in carbon and nitrogen isotopes in neritic waters. Furthermore, the isotopic patterns are best explained by sea surface temperature, and similar gradients are found in fish muscle samples collected from local ports.

RAPID COMMUNICATIONS IN MASS SPECTROMETRY (2023)

No Data Available