Post-discharge venous thromboembolism after pancreatectomy for malignancy: Predicting risk based on preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative factors

Background and Objectives Extended chemoprophylaxis is recommended for high-risk patients following pancreatectomy for malignancy. However, quantifying risk remains difficult. We sought to (a) identify factors associated with post-discharge venous thromboembolism (VTE) following pancreatectomy for malignancy and (b) develop a post-discharge VTE risk calculator to identify high-risk patients. Methods Patients who underwent pancreatectomy for malignant histology from 2014 to 2018 were identified from the ACS NSQIP pancreatectomy procedure targeted dataset. Preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative factors known at hospital discharge were evaluated for association with post-discharge VTE via multivariable logistic regression. A post-discharge VTE risk calculator was developed and validated. Results Of 19 340 analyzed patients, 280 (1.5%) developed post-discharge VTE. Post-discharge VTE was associated with increasing body mass index (BMI; eg, morbidly obese BMI odds ratio [OR]: 1.99 [95% confidence interval {CI}: 1.30-3.02] vs normal BMI), procedure type (distal pancreatectomy OR: 1.47 [95% CI: 1.02-2.12] vs pancreaticoduodenectomy), pancreatic fistula (OR: 1.59 [95% CI: 1.19-2.13]) and delayed gastric emptying (OR: 1.81 [95% CI: 1.29-2.52]). Patients' predicted probability of post-discharge VTE ranged from 0.7% to 9.0%. Twenty iterations of 10-fold cross-validation demonstrated internal validity. Conclusions Preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative factors were associated with post-discharge VTE following pancreatectomy for malignancy. This post-discharge VTE risk calculator allows for quantification of individual post-discharge VTE risk, which ranged from 0.7% to 9.0%.