Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Renu S. Das, Suryachandra A. Rao, Prasanth A. Pillai, Ankur Srivastava, Maheswar Pradhan, Dandi A. Ramu
Summary: This study analyses observational data from 1982 to 2017 and finds that the relationship between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is weak during August compared to other months in the summer monsoon season. This is due to the formation of a synoptic system in the Bay of Bengal which suppresses the effect of ENSO on ISMR.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Mengke Zhang, Dachao Jin, Xudong Wang, Lin Chen, Jingjia Luo, Ziqian Wang
Summary: Based on the study of two anomaly patterns in the Indian Ocean, IOBM and IOD, it is found that they are connected and not influenced by the previous year's winter ENSO, showing phase-locking with the seasonal cycle.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Chibuike Chiedozie Ibebuchi
Summary: This paper examines the circulation types of summer rain-bearing in Africa south of the equator that are related to the positive phase of the subtropical Indian Ocean dipole (SIOD). It explores the dynamics through which specific rainfall regions in southern Africa can be influenced by this relationship.
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Geography, Physical
Sebastian Anila, C. Gnanaseelan
Summary: Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an air-sea coupled variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), which has significant impact on the climate variability over the Indian Ocean rim countries. This study highlights the role of Subtropical IOD (SIOD) as a trigger or link for the formation of pure IODs, and reveals the existence of a cyclic feedback between IOD and SIOD. The mechanisms associated with the feedback cycle and the causative factors are demonstrated in detail.
GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Bo Tang, Wen Zhou
Summary: This paper analyzes the effect of the Australian High (AH) on the seasonal phase locking of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. The anomalous strong AH associated with the positive phase of the Antarctic Oscillation can cause significant easterly wind anomalies and northward cross-equatorial flow over the western Maritime Continent (MC) by strengthening the Australian winter monsoon during May-August. The AH-associated easterly anomalies and northward cross-equatorial flow can create thermodynamic air-sea feedback and contribute to a significant cooling anomaly in the western MC and the tropical eastern Indian Ocean.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
M. Martin, R. Venkatesan, Robert A. Weller, Amit Tandon, K. Jossia Joseph
Summary: The article describes the discovery of seasonal warming and cooling in the abyssal ocean, and investigates the potential factors contributing to this phenomenon.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2022)
Article
Oceanography
Javier Zavala-Garay, Jurgen Theiss
Summary: This study identifies and characterizes the seasonal changes in the instability properties of the Western Equatorial Indian Ocean using a regional ocean model. The seasonal changes of the background state, regulated by the interaction of the East Africa Coastal Current and the Somali Current, play a significant role in the seasonal behavior of the instability properties.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
(2022)
Review
Oceanography
Yi Xu, Ying Wu, Huiwu Wang, Zhenqiu Zhang, Jian Li, Jing Zhang
Summary: The study identified four biotic zones in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal, with different processes affecting surface and subsurface chlorophyll levels. Factors such as coastal upwelling, wind-induced divergence, and convective mixing were found to influence chlorophyll concentrations in different regions. Interannual variability of chlorophyll was related to Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) associated physical field oscillations, with significant correlations between IOD index and chlorophyll levels in specific regions.
PROGRESS IN OCEANOGRAPHY
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Marine
Zi Yin, Qing Dong, Kunsheng Xiang, Min Bian
Summary: Investigating the main modes of interannual variation of Chla in the North Indian Ocean and its seasonal evolution, this study utilized S-EOF analysis and power spectrum analysis to explain the influencing factors and possible mechanisms of Chla's joint seasonal and interannual variations. The results revealed distinct patterns of Chla variability and their associations with climate indices and dynamic parameters of the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean.
JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Md Wahiduzzaman, Kevin Cheung, Jing-Jia Luo, Prasad Kumar Bhaskaran, Shaolei Tang, Chaoxia Yuan
Summary: This study examined the predictive skill of a statistical Generalised Additive Model (GAM) by considering the impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results show that IOD is a good predictor for tropical cyclone activity and landfall probability. The GAM approach has a potential skill of approximately 72% in matching predicted landfall with observations.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Bo Liu, Kai Yang, Xiangwen Liu, Gang Huang, Benjamin Ng
Summary: The results of the study show that China Meteorology Administration's second-generation climate model prediction system (CPSv2) and CPSv3 have been compared in terms of predicting the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). CPSv3 demonstrated a better ability to predict the variability and spatial pattern of the IOD compared to CPSv2, especially with longer lead times. Improved data assimilation in CPSv3 has reduced predictability errors and enhanced the simulation of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-IOD relationship, leading to better prediction skill of ENSO-related IOD events. Upgrading data assimilation and enhancing the simulation of the ENSO-IOD relationship are crucial for improving IOD prediction in coupled climate models.
GEOSCIENCE LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yaru Guo, Yuanlong Li, Fan Wang
Summary: The passage of Indonesian Throughflow water through the Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in the global ocean conveyor belt. While the exit of this water to the Atlantic Ocean through the Agulhas Current system is well-known, little is known about other possible destinations and primary pathways. Using the Connectivity Modeling System, this study reveals a robust return path of Indonesian Throughflow water to the Pacific Ocean. Vertical motions and turbulence mixing have important impacts on the water's destinations and pathways, but their effects are relatively small.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jiangbo Jin, Xiao Dong, Juanxiong He, Yi Yu, Hailong Liu, Minghua Zhang, Qingcun Zeng, He Zhang, Xin Gao, Guangqing Zhou, Yaqi Wang
Summary: This study investigates the uncertainty in predicting ocean heat uptake and sea-level change by state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). The results show that different models have varying projections, with significant differences in ocean temperature, heat content, and sea level changes in the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans and the Southern Ocean basins. These differences are primarily caused by variations in the initial value and weakening change of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, as well as disparities in surface heat flux and salinity boundary conditions between the models.
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Jun-Young Park, Fabian Schloesser, Axel Timmermann, Dipayan Choudhury, June-Yi Lee, Arjun Babu Nellikkattil
Summary: Climate-forced, offline ice-sheet model simulations have been widely used to assess ice-sheet contributions to future global sea-level rise. However, these projections often neglect the bidirectional interactions between ice-sheets and climate. In this study, we conducted greenhouse warming simulations using a coupled global climate-ice-sheet model and found that the ice-sheet contributions to global sea-level rise by 2150 are estimated to be 0.2 +/- 0.01, 0.5 +/- 0.01, and 1.4 +/- 0.1 m under different emission scenarios. These results highlight the importance of considering the complex interactions between ice-sheets, ocean, and atmosphere in future sea-level rise projections.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Xinqiang Xu, Lei Wang, Weidong Yu
Summary: The interannual variability of the sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean is complex and influenced by various air-sea coupled modes around El Niño / La Niña. Different modes within the Indian Ocean are affected by the local monsoonal cycle and anomalous forcing from El Niño / La Niña, making the region's SST anomalies explainable through various mechanisms.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
J. Ratnam, Takeshi Doi, Yushi Morioka, Pascal Oettli, Masami Nonaka, Swadhin K. Behera
Summary: The application of the Selective Ensemble Mean (SEM) technique improves the prediction accuracy of surface air temperature anomalies in the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change, version 2 (SINTEX-F2). The SEM predictions have higher hit rates and lower false alarm rates compared to predictions obtained by averaging all members of SINTEX-F2.
WEATHER AND FORECASTING
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Lei Zhang, Weiqing Han, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Yuanlong Li, Tomoki Tozuka
Summary: The study using climate model experiments indicates that the changes in the SIOD and Ningaloo Nino modes in the subtropical south Indian Ocean are primarily influenced by internal climate variability rather than external forcing. A warm pool dipole mode of decadal variability plays a significant role in driving these changes.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yuki Higuchi, Tomoki Tozuka
Summary: A new framework of complex networks based on event synchronization is developed to reveal the propagation characteristics of temperature anomalies associated with climate variation phenomena. The study finds that there is an asymmetry in sea surface temperature anomalies between the positive and negative phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), with anomalies in the eastern pole being preceded by those in the eastern equatorial region and from the south. Furthermore, the positive IOD tends to experience extreme subsurface temperature anomalies over larger areas before extreme sea surface temperature anomalies compared to the negative IOD.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Shoichiro Kido, Ingo Richter, Tomoki Tozuka, Ping Chang
Summary: This study assesses the impacts of tropical interbasin interaction (TBI) on the characteristics and predictability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropics. It shows that removing TBI leads to an increase in the amplitude of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and related variability. Experimental results indicate that the PO-IO interaction is the dominant contributor, while PO-AO and AO-IO interactions play a minor role. Forecast experiments demonstrate that decoupling TBI greatly decreases the prediction skill of ENSO, especially at longer lead times.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Weiqing Han, Lei Zhang, Gerald A. Meehl, Shoichiro Kido, Tomoki Tozuka, Yuanlong Li, Michael J. McPhaden, Aixue Hu, Anny Cazenave, Nan Rosenbloom, Gary Strand, B. Jason West, Wen Xing
Summary: This study investigates extreme sea level height events and their relationship with climate variability along the Indian Ocean coast of Indonesia in recent decades. The findings highlight the interplay between anthropogenic warming and climate variability in affecting regional extremes, with increased high sea level events and concurrent marine heatwaves observed in the past decade.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jiaying He, Jing-Jia Luo, Takeshi Doi, Shanshan Liu, Shaolei Tang, Xiang Wang
Summary: In the winter of 2018/19, the Yangtze-Huai River Basin in China experienced excessive and long-duration precipitation, similar to three other extreme pluvial winters in the past. The circulation patterns and tropical ocean states varied among these winters, with significant contributions from tropical sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean to the precipitation anomalies in the Yangtze-Huai River Basin.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Marvin Xiang Ce Seow, Muhammad Eeqmal Eesfansyah Hassim, Prasanna Venkatraman, Tomoki Tozuka
Summary: Sea surface temperatures in the western part of the South China Sea are cooler than in the eastern part during winter due to a winter cold tongue. The study examines the atmospheric impacts of local SSTs versus remote drivers during strong cold tongue events. It finds that local SST anomalies do not significantly affect the regional wind circulation, while remote SSTs linked to cold tongue events result in cyclonic wind and positive rainfall anomalies over the eastern South China Sea and the Philippines.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Tomoki Tozuka, Yoshikazu Sasai, Sayaka Yasunaka, Hideharu Sasaki, Masami Nonaka
Summary: Decadal variations of phytoplankton concentration in the upstream Kuroshio Extension region are investigated using an ecosystem model embedded in an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model. The study finds that the anomalies of phytoplankton biomass distribution are influenced by the transitions between stable and unstable states of the Kuroshio Extension.
PROGRESS IN EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Tomoki Tozuka, Takahiro Toyoda, Meghan F. Cronin
Summary: By analyzing the mixed layer heat budget and considering seasonality and mixed layer depth variations, we have shown for the first time that decadal variations in sea surface temperature (SST) in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) are mainly attributed to decadal modulations of effective heat capacity, which affects the sensitivity of SST to surface heat fluxes.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yukito Tamura, Tomoki Tozuka
Summary: The Kuroshio Extension (KE) has experienced large decadal variations, particularly after the 1976/77 climate regime shift. The KE region may play a crucial role in basin-scale Pacific decadal climate variability due to strong ocean-atmosphere interactions. The study has quantified the relative contribution of wind stress at each longitude using a linear Rossby wave model forced by reanalysis surface wind stress for the first time. It is found that the largest contribution occurs at 160 degrees W, and the wind forcing around 170 degrees-150 degrees W explains 40% of the total variance in the decadal KE variability. Further analysis suggests that the atmospheric forcing anomalies are generated by the El Nino/Southern Oscillation Modoki through an atmospheric teleconnection after the regime shift.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Kalpesh Ravindra Patil, Takeshi Doi, Venkata Ratnam Jayanthi, Swadhin Behera
Summary: This study proposes a statistical ENSO prediction system based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) with heterogeneous CNN parameters, which can predict ENSO at least 18-24 months in advance. The developed system demonstrates that the CNN model is highly skillful in predicting ENSO at long lead times, surpassing the SINTEX-F2 dynamical system and other statistical prediction systems in predicting extreme ENSO events. The study also attempts to identify various precursors to ENSO events using CNN heatmap analysis.
FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Ziyu Ye, Tomoki Tozuka
Summary: This study investigates the causality relationship between the atmosphere and the ocean using normalized information flow (NIF) based on sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation data. The results show that the ocean has a greater impact on the atmosphere in the tropics, while the atmosphere has a greater impact on the ocean in the extratropics. NIFs may be a powerful tool to study ocean-atmosphere interactions.
FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Takeshi Doi, Masami Nonaka, Swadhin Behera
Summary: This study presents a skill assessment of 1-month lead deterministic predictions of monthly surface air temperature anomalies over most part of Japan using the SINTEX-F climate model. The results show that September is the most predictable month, with the only prediction beating persistence. Interestingly, the prediction for December becomes skillful when selecting years with a relatively high signal-to-noise ratio. The study suggests that a combination of tropical Pacific and western Indian Ocean surface temperature is key for the prediction.
FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
J. V. Ratnam, Takeshi Doi, Ingo Richter, Pascal Oettli, Masami Nonaka, Swadhin K. Behera
Summary: This study evaluated the skill of the SINTEX-F2 coupled general circulation model in predicting the surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over Japan in the winter months. The results showed that the predictions using the selected ensemble average (SEM) outperformed the predictions using the average of all the members (ENS). The SEM predictions had higher hit rates and lower false alarm rates in the central Japan region in December and January, as well as in the northern region of Hokkaido in February. The improved skill scores in the SEM were attributed to the better representation of 200 hPa geopotential height anomalies.
FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Takeshi Doi, Swadhin Behera
Summary: This study explores the impacts of interannual variations of chlorophyll on seasonal predictions of the tropical Pacific using the SINTEX-F2 dynamical climate prediction system. The results show that while the chlorophyll has limited impacts on the prediction of the Nino 3.4 index, it improves the prediction of sea surface temperature over the eastern edge of the Western Pacific Warm Pool, especially during the occurrence of a super El Nino in 2015.
FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE
(2022)