Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Sharanya J. Majumdar, Samantha Nebylitsa, Philip J. Klotzbach, Cameron Masiello, Zachary R. Michael
Summary: Using 42 years of reanalysis data, this study examines the regional and storm-relative characteristics of three different intensification groups of Atlantic tropical cyclones. The results show distinct probability density functions for vertical wind shear, sea surface temperature (SST), and radius of maximum winds (RMW) among these groups. The study also identifies the best predictors for different regions, suggesting the need for further investigation due to variability across regions, periods, and variables.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Karthik Balaguru, Gregory R. Foltz, L. Ruby Leung, Samson M. Hagos
Summary: Tropical cyclones are often accompanied by strong winds and torrential rains. The competition between the stabilizing effect of rainfall and wind-induced mixing, as well as the degree to which it modulates TC-induced sea surface cooling, remain unknown. This study shows that heavy rains under weak TCs can significantly reduce the magnitude of cold wakes induced by them, with the ocean surface freshening and cooling less.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Kerry Emanuel
Summary: This study investigates the relationship between the seed frequency and transition probability of tropical cyclone occurrence rates. The results demonstrate that the partitioning of this relationship is dependent on the definition of seeds and does not resolve the issue of controlling factors for tropical cyclone frequency. The author argues that tropical cyclone climatology is primarily controlled by regional environment and the global response to uniform radiative forcing may be more influenced by regional response than the average response.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Licheng Wang, Xihui Gu, Aminjon Gulakhmadov, Jianfeng Li, Louise J. Slater, Qiang Zhang, Ming Luo, Guoyu Ren, Dongdong Kong, Yangcheng Lai, Jianyu Liu
Summary: This study investigates the trends in translation distance of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP). The results show that the overland translation distance of landfall TCs over China and excluding China have opposite trends, but the overall translation distance of TCs over the WNP has significantly decreased during 1961-2019. The shorter duration and reduced translation speed of TCs are the main factors contributing to this decline.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Quinton A. Lawton, Robert L. Korty, Ryan A. Zamora
Summary: Analysis and comparison of tropical cyclones downscaled from three models' simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) with storms downscaled from simulations of the present climate. The mean maximum intensity of storms generated from each model is lower at LGM globally, with fewer storms reaching intensities of category 4 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. The median day of the storm season shifts earlier by an average of one week in all three models, suggesting variations in storm behavior between LGM and current climate.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Adam H. Sobel, Chia-Ying Lee, Steven G. Bowen, Suzana J. Camargo, Mark A. Cane, Amy Clement, Boniface Fosu, Megan Hart, Kevin A. Reed, Richard Seager, Michael K. Tippett
Summary: Recent research shows that climate models incorrectly simulate the equatorial Pacific response to greenhouse gas warming, leading to a discrepancy between model predictions and observations of a more La Nina-like state. This could result in incorrect projections of regional tropical cyclone activity and other perils such as severe convective storms and droughts. While these errors may be transient, the transient response is important for climate adaptation in the next several decades. Therefore, it is desirable to develop projections that represent a broader range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios, even if current coupled earth system models cannot produce such projections.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yulian Tang, Jingliang Huangfu, Ronghui Huang, Wen Chen
Summary: This study assesses the impacts of model resolutions, TC trackers, and ocean coupling on simulating TC climatology over the western North Pacific. Increasing resolution has the greatest improvement on the simulation results.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Tsung-lin Hsieh, Bosong Zhang, Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Ming Zhao, Brian J. Soden, Chenggong Wang
Summary: The response of tropical cyclone frequency to sea surface warming is uncertain in climate models. The anomalies of large-scale atmospheric radiation in response to climate change are hypothesized to be a source of this uncertainty, and their influence on TC frequency is investigated. By exchanging atmospheric radiation anomalies between two atmospheric models with opposite TC frequency responses to uniform sea surface warming, the largest model discrepancy occurs in the western North Pacific. The discrepancy is caused by prescribed positive radiation anomalies leading to anomalous large-scale ascent and an increase in TC frequency, while prescribed negative radiation anomalies lead to anomalous large-scale descent and a decrease in TC frequency. The model spread in TC frequency response is approximated by the model spread in the frequency response of pre-TC vortices, which is explained by changes in the large-scale circulation using a downscaling formula known as the seed propensity index. The index is further generalized to predict the influence of large-scale radiation anomalies on TC seed frequency. The results show that model spread in TC and seed frequency response can be reduced when constraining the large-scale radiation anomalies.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Adam H. Sobel, Allison A. Wing, Suzana J. Camargo, Christina M. Patricola, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chia-Ying Lee, Michael K. Tippett
Summary: The frequency of tropical cyclones is influenced by global warming, but there is no consistent theory to explain the average number of TCs occurring each year on Earth. While global numerical models have improved simulations of TC activity, uncertainty remains in predicting changes in frequency.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Kerry Emanuel
Summary: Global models of CMIP6 have been downscaled using a high-resolution tropical cyclone model, showing an increase in both frequency and severity of tropical cyclones in response to increasing greenhouse gases, especially in the Northern Hemisphere.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Lei Zhang, Kerry A. Emanuel
Summary: The study shows that the cold wakes left behind by tropical cyclones can affect the tracks and intensities of subsequent tropical cyclones. Cold wakes reduce the frequency of weak to moderate events but increase the incidence of very intense events. Cold wakes are important for modeling and forecasting tropical cyclones, interpreting historical records, and understanding feedbacks in a changing climate.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jing -yi Zhuo, Zhe-min Tan
Summary: This study uses deep learning algorithms to estimate the size of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific based on satellite data. The algorithms were used to reconstruct a historical dataset, revealing significant expanding trends in the outer circulations of these cyclones and a weak contracting trend in the inner-core size.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Shaohua Chen, Haikun Zhao, Graciela B. Raga, Philip J. Klotzbach
Summary: This study highlights the significant influences of tropical transbasin variability (TBV) and ENSO on tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific, eastern North Pacific, and North Atlantic Ocean basins. The modulation of TC counts varies in each basin due to different effects of TBV and ENSO, with low-level relative vorticity and large-scale factors playing important roles in regulating TC frequency.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yuan Sun, Zhong Zhong, Tim Li, Lan Yi, Yixuan Shen
Summary: Recent studies have shown a strong correlation between the slowing trend of tropical cyclone translation speed and TC intensity, with strong TCs exhibiting a more significant decrease in translation speed. Additionally, changes in TC tracks, including interbasin trend and latitudinal shift, have a larger impact on the slowing trend compared to the weakening of tropical circulation due to anthropogenic warming.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Philip J. Klotzbach, Kimberly M. Wood, Carl J. Schreck, Steven G. Bowen, Christina M. Patricola, Michael M. Bell
Summary: This study examines global tropical cyclone activity trends from 1990 to 2021, revealing decreases in hurricane numbers and ACE, along with increases in short-lived named storms and TC-related damage. These trends may be attributed to technological advancements and higher potential intensity.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Fabio Di Sante, Erika Coppola, Filippo Giorgi
Summary: A large ensemble of hydroclimatic simulations was used to simulate river floods in Europe, showing a decrease in Q100 flood magnitude in the Mediterranean, Scandinavia, and north eastern Europe, but an increase in flood magnitude in Great Britain, Ireland, Northern Italy, and Western Europe.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Erika Coppola, Rita Nogherotto, James M. Ciarlo, Filippo Giorgi, Erik van Meijgaard, Nikolay Kadygrov, Carley Iles, Lola Corre, Marit Sandstad, Samuel Somot, Pierre Nabat, Robert Vautard, Guillaume Levavasseur, Clemens Schwingshackl, Jana Sillmann, Erik Kjellstrom, Grigory Nikulin, Emma Aalbers, Geert Lenderink, Ole B. Christensen, Fredrik Boberg, Silje Lund Sorland, Marie-Estelle Demory, Katharina Buelow, Claas Teichmann, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, Volker Wulfmeyer
Summary: This paper analyzes the ensemble of regional climate model projections for Europe and finds different temperature and precipitation change trends in different regions, with noticeable consistency among different model ensembles.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Robert Vautard, Nikolay Kadygrov, Carley Iles, Fredrik Boberg, Erasmo Buonomo, Katharina Buelow, Erika Coppola, Lola Corre, Erik van Meijgaard, Rita Nogherotto, Marit Sandstad, Clemens Schwingshackl, Samuel Somot, Emma Aalbers, Ole B. Christensen, James M. Ciarlo, Marie-Estelle Demory, Filippo Giorgi, Daniela Jacob, Richard G. Jones, Klaus Keuler, Erik Kjellstrom, Geert Lenderink, Guillaume Levavasseur, Grigory Nikulin, Jana Sillmann, Cosimo Solidoro, Silje Lund Sorland, Christian Steger, Claas Teichmann, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, Volker Wulfmeyer
Summary: The use of regional climate model (RCM) projections in providing regional climate information is expanding rapidly, particularly in Europe. While model simulations generally agree with observations and reanalyses, there are systematic biases identified related to temperature, precipitation, and dynamical variables.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Filippo Giorgi, Erika Coppola, Daniela Jacob, Claas Teichmann, Sabina Abba Omar, Moetasim Ashfaq, Nikolina Ban, Katharina Buelow, Melissa Bukovsky, Lars Buntemeyer, Tereza Cavazos, James Ciarlo, Rosmeri Porfirio da Rocha, Sushant Das, Fabio di Sante, Jason P. Evans, Xuejie Gao, Graziano Giuliani, Russell H. Glazer, Peter Hoffmann, Eun-Soon Im, Gaby Langendijk, Ludwig Lierhammer, Marta Llopart, Sebastial Mueller, Rosa Luna-Nino, Rita Nogherotto, Emanuela Pichelli, Francesca Raffaele, Michelle Reboita, Diana Rechid, Armelle Remedio, Thomas Remke, Windmanagda Sawadogo, Kevin Sieck, Jose Abraham Torres-Alavez, Torsten Weber
Summary: This article describes the first effort of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-CORE EXP-I, which involves using regional climate models (RCMs) to downscale global climate model (GCM) simulations from the CMIP5 program. The results cover a wide range of topics, including extreme indices, storms, monsoons, and more. The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I ensemble provides unprecedented downscaled information to improve understanding of regional climate change and impacts.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Marco Reale, William David Cabos Narvaez, Leone Cavicchia, Dario Conte, Erika Coppola, Emmanouil Flaounas, Filippo Giorgi, Silvio Gualdi, Assaf Hochman, Laurent Li, Piero Lionello, Zorica Podrascanin, Stefano Salon, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Enrico Scoccimarro, Dmitry Sein, Samuel Somot
Summary: The study reveals that by the end of the 21st century, there will be a decrease in the number and size of cyclones in the Mediterranean, with an increase in wind speed and precipitation in the central part of the region and a decrease in the southeastern part. Inter-model differences in projected changes suggest the importance of further exploration and understanding of the driving mechanisms behind the future evolution of Mediterranean cyclone properties.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Thanh Nguyen-Xuan, Sze Lok Lam, Filippo Giorgi, Erika Coppola, Graziano Giuliani, Xuejie Gao, Eun-Soon Im
Summary: This study evaluates the performance of the latest version of the non-hydrostatic RegCM4 customized over two urban agglomerations in China. The dynamical core and convective parameterization scheme used in the driving mother domain simulation can affect temperature and precipitation patterns. The non-hydrostatic mother domain simulation reduces dry bias and intensifies localized precipitation events.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Sushant Das, Filippo Giorgi, Erika Coppola, A. S. Panicker, A. S. Gautam, Vijayakumar S. Nair, Graziano Giuliani
Summary: The study demonstrates the significant impact of aerosol on snow darkening effect over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, affecting surface temperatures and precipitation distribution, leading to reduced precipitation and increased temperatures that can affect other climate elements.
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Rita Nogherotto, Adriano Fantini, Francesca Raffaele, Fabio Di Sante, Francesco Dottori, Erika Coppola, Filippo Giorgi
Summary: The study introduced a combined hydrological and hydraulic modelling approach to assess flood-prone areas along the Po river in Northern Italy, which showed good performance in simulating flood processes and hazard maps. The method can accurately identify a large portion of flood extent during high return periods, indicating strong potential for future application in flood hazard assessment under climate change scenarios.
JOURNAL OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Paolo Stocchi, Emanuela Pichelli, Jose Abraham Torres Alavez, Erika Coppola, Graziano Giuliani, Filippo Giorgi
Summary: Recent studies have shown that regional climate models at the convection-permitting scale significantly improve the simulation of precipitation in various geographical regions, with particularly notable improvements in intensity, heavy precipitation, and precipitation frequency at both daily and hourly time scales. The CP-RegCM4-NH model produces a more realistic representation of precipitation compared to coarse-resolution simulations, demonstrating clear benefits in terms of intensity and frequency of precipitation events. glm535396065863025(coeff0.08)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Javier Diez-Sierra, Maialen Iturbide, Jose M. Gutierrez, Jesus Fernandez, Josipa Milovac, Antonio S. Cofino, Ezequiel Cimadevilla, Grigory Nikulin, Guillaume Levavasseur, Erik Kjellstrom, Katharina Bulow, Andras Horanyi, Anca Brookshaw, Markel Garcia-Diez, Antonio Perez, Jorge Bano-Medina, Bodo Ahrens, Antoinette Alias, Moetasim Ashfaq, Melissa Bukovsky, Erasmo Buonomo, Steven Caluwaerts, Sin Chan Chou, Ole B. Christensen, James M. Ciarlo, Erika Coppola, Lola Corre, Marie-Estelle Demory, Vladimir Djurdjevic, Jason P. Evans, Rowan Fealy, Hendrik Feldmann, Daniela Jacob, Sanjay Jayanarayanan, Jack Katzfey, Klaus Keuler, Christoph Kittel, Mehmet Levent Kurnaz, Rene Laprise, Piero Lionello, Seth McGinnis, Paola Mercogliano, Pierre Nabat, Tugba Ozturk, Hans-Jurgen Panitz, Dominique Paquin, Ildiko Pieczka, Francesca Raffaele, Armelle Reca Remedio, John Scinocca, Florence Sevault, Samuel Somot, Christian Steger, Fredolin Tangang, Claas Teichmann, Piet Termonia, Marcus Thatcher, Csaba Torma, Erik van Meijgaard, Robert Vautard, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, Katja Winger, George Zittis, Baris Onol
Summary: The collaboration between CORDEX and ESGF allows open access to regional climate model simulations, which have been used as evidence for assessing regional climate projections in IPCC AR6. The C3S CORDEX dataset, available through the Copernicus Climate Data Store, has been used for the assessment and is consistent for precipitation and temperature.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
P. M. M. Soares, J. A. M. Careto, Rita M. Cardoso, Klaus Goergen, Eleni Katragkou, Stefan Sobolowski, Erika Coppola, Nikolina Ban, Danijel Belusic, Segolene Berthou, Cecile Caillaud, Andreas Dobler, Oivind Hodnebrog, Stergios Kartsios, Geert Lenderink, T. Lorenz, Josipa Milovac, Hendrik Feldmann, Emanuela Pichelli, Heimo Truhetz, Marie Estelle Demory, Hylke de Vries, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, Klaus Keuler, Mario Raffa, Merja Toelle, Kevin Sieck, Sophie Bstin
Summary: The increase in computational resources has led to the emergence of high-resolution regional climate models. By comparing high-resolution simulations with global simulations and lower-resolution models, the added value of the models can be assessed. Although the gains are limited, the improvement in spatial representation can enhance local atmospheric circulations and land-atmosphere interactions, particularly in coastal areas.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Jonas Van de Walle, Danijel Belusic, Segolene Berthou, Erika Coppola, Matthias Demuzere, Andreas H. Fink, Declan L. Finney, Russell Glazer, Patrick Ludwig, John H. Marsham, Grigory Nikulin, Joaquim G. Pinto, David P. Rowell, Minchao Wu, Wim Thiery
Summary: The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study ELVIC aims to investigate the evolution of extreme weather events in the Lake Victoria basin and provide improved information for the climate impact community. The study finds that convection-permitting scale simulations show substantial improvements in the representation of moist convective systems, especially in metrics related to deep convection. These models have the potential to be valuable tools for studying future extreme precipitation events in the region.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Alex C. Ruane, Robert Vautard, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Jana Sillmann, Erika Coppola, Nigel Arnell, Faye Abigail Cruz, Suraje Dessai, Carley E. Iles, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Richard G. Jones, Mohammad Rahimi, Daniel Ruiz Carrascal, Sonia Seneviratne, Jerome Servonnat, Anna A. Sorensson, Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla, Claudia Tebaldi, Wen Wang, Rashyd Zaaboul
Summary: The climate science and applications communities require a comprehensive concept to assess physical climate conditions relevant for impacts on human and natural systems. The CID approach provides a framework to evaluate the effects of different CIDs on societal and ecological elements, supporting adaptation planning and risk management.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ramon Fuentes-Franco, David Docquier, Torben Koenigk, Klaus Zimmermann, Filippo Giorgi
Summary: Using an ensemble of models from CMIP6, we analysed the relationship between extreme winter precipitation over Northern Europe and the NAO for the historical period and future scenarios. The models project a doubling of extreme precipitation days by the end of the 21st century under the high-emission scenario compared to the historical period. We also observed a weakening of NAO variability and an increasing correlation between extreme winter precipitation events and the NAO index in both future scenarios.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Peter Berg, Thomas Bosshard, Wei Yang, Klaus Zimmermann
Summary: Bias adjustment is the statistical transformation of climate model data to reduce systematic deviations from a reference dataset. This study introduces a new platform called MIdAS, which supports efficient processing of large datasets, advanced bias adjustment methods based on quantile mapping, and cascade adjustments in time and space. The paper presents a comparison of different bias adjustment methods and evaluates the recommended setup of MIdAS for various regions, with a focus on preserving trends in future climate projections.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2022)