Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jian Shi
Summary: The relationship between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is complex and influenced by the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). These two oscillations modulate different aspects of the decadal relationship between ENSO and EAWM, helping to clarify discrepancies among previous studies based on specific and regional EAWM indices.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Binhe Luo, Dehai Luo, Aiguo Dai, Ian Simmonds, Lixin Wu
Summary: This paper explores the physical cause of the decadal variability of the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern observed in recent decades. The study finds that the phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) mediate the decadal variability of the WACE pattern. The study also highlights the influence of PDO and AMO on the meridional structure of the WACE pattern, leading to different spatial distributions of warm and cold anomalies.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jiapeng Miao, Dabang Jiang
Summary: The study found that internal variability, particularly the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, plays a dominant role in multidecadal variations in East Asian surface air temperature since 1880. External forcings also have an impact on temperature changes, but mainly due to offsetting effects between different forcing agents.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yu-Hsin Hsueh, King-Fai Li, Li-Ching Lin, Sourendra Kumar Bhattacharya, Amzad H. Laskar, Mao-Chang Liang
Summary: The accurate projection of CO2 concentration globally is challenging due to the complex interplay between human activities, natural climate variability, and carbon cycling systems. Decadal CO2 variations in the western Pacific region have been identified, with a potential correlation to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Further research is needed to fully understand the impact of these decadal signals on carbon cycling and climate.
REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
N. Sandeep, P. Swapna, R. Krishnan, R. Farneti, F. Kucharski, Aditi Modi, A. G. Prajeesh, D. C. Ayantika, S. Manmeet
Summary: The long-term variability of the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) is known to be associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), but recent decades have seen a weakening of this relationship. The warming of the Indian Ocean and the weakening of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) are identified as factors contributing to the weakening association between AMO and SASM. This has implications for understanding future changes in SASM in a warming world.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Meng Xu, Haiming Xu, Jing Ma, Jiechun Deng
Summary: Using observational datasets and model simulation outputs, this study explores the impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the interannual relationship between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and East Asian early summer monsoon (EAESM). It is found that the AMO can modulate this relationship by affecting the amplitude of ENSO. The AMO-related Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) alter the equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, which ultimately affects the ENSO amplitude and hence the correlation with EAESM. Nevertheless, climate models exhibit large inter-model spread in representing this AMO modulation due to varying performances in simulating the inter-basin Atlantic-Pacific Ocean coupling capacity.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jiapeng Miao, Dabang Jiang
Summary: The study explores the multidecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon since 1850, identifying periods of weakening and strengthening. It finds that a quasi-barotropic Rossby wave train from the subtropical North Atlantic influences the strength of the monsoon, with a positive phase leading to stronger EAWMs. Additionally, the phase shifting of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation can further modulate the monsoon's multidecadal variations.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Meng Xu, Haiming Xu, Jing Ma, Jiechun Deng
Summary: The study shows that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) has a significant impact on the interannual relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and East Asian early summer monsoon (EAESM). The AMO affects the ENSO events through modulating sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the western North Pacific, while it influences the La Nina events through the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions. The observed impacts are confirmed using atmospheric general circulation model simulations.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Review
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Tianjiao Ma, Wen Chen
Summary: This paper reviews recent advances in understanding the interaction between the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The impacts of ENSO on the EAWM include weaker bias in current climate model simulations, weaker influence of central Pacific type ENSO compared to eastern Pacific type, and contributions of precipitation anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean to the intra-seasonal transition of ENSO teleconnection over East Asia. The ENSO-EAWM relationship is unstable and subject to non-linear modulation. On the other hand, the EAWM can lead to significant variations in tropical convection, local Hadley circulation, and Walker circulation, modulating the ENSO atmospheric teleconnection over North America.
FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Shuyang Guo, Xiaodan Guan, Linlin Gao, Wen Sun, Chenyu Cao, Yongli He
Summary: This study focuses on the different responses of precipitation changes and drought in the Central Asian dryland and East Asian dryland to different phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The study finds that precipitation in these regions is associated with the positive phase of AMO, which further affects the severity of drought.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr, Andre Bahr, Christian Zeeden, Kweku A. Yamoah, Mahjoor Ahmad Lone, Chih-Kai Chuang, Ludvig Lowemark, Kuo-Yen Wei
Summary: The study reveals that the phase relationship between EASM and EAWM has significantly changed over the past 10,000 years, influenced by orbital configuration changes. Factors such as changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation, Arctic sea-ice coverage, El Nino-Southern Oscillation, and Sun Spot numbers have contributed to millennial scale changes in the EASM and EAWM during the Holocene.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Florian Boergel, Matthias Groeger, H. E. Markus Meier, Cyril Dutheil, Hagen Radtke, Leonard Borchert
Summary: We analyzed multidecadal temperature fluctuations of the Atlantic Ocean and their influence on Northern Europe, with a focus on the Baltic Sea. Through low-frequency component analysis, we identified modes of multidecadal variability in the Baltic Sea temperature signal and linked it to Atlantic climate variability. The study found that a large fraction of winter temperature variability in the Baltic Sea is related to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), while the AMV does not influence summer and spring water temperatures.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Chi -Hua Wu, Chein-Jung Shiu, Yi-Ying Chen, I-Chun Tsai, Shih-Yu Lee
Summary: In this study, the authors investigated the climatic changes in the East Asian winter monsoon circulation and assessed the impact of global warming on these changes. The research focused on the interannual fluctuation in the upper-level westerly jet stream and its relationship with the underlying monsoon circulation. Evaluating the changes in the relationships among various circulation patterns in the context of present and future global warming may help identify the natural and anthropogenic effects on monsoon dynamics.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jiaqing Xue, Jing-Jia Luo, Wenjun Zhang, Toshio Yamagata
Summary: The interactions between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) have significant implications for global climate variability and seasonal climate predictions. Observational analysis suggests that the relationship between ENSO and IOD in different basins is time-varying and related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with a weakened relationship during AMO warm phases. Atlantic pacemaker simulations successfully reproduce the decadal fluctuations in the ENSO-IOD relationship and its connection to the AMO. The warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the AMO drive climate changes in the Indo-Pacific region, including cooling of the central Pacific and deepening of the thermocline in the eastern Indian Ocean, which decouples the IOD from ENSO by modulating ocean-atmosphere feedback.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jin-Sil Hong, Sang-Wook Yeh, Young-Min Yang
Summary: The authors investigated the interbasin interactions between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans based on the phase relationship of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)/Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). They found that the characteristics of the interactions depend on whether the PDO and AMO phases are in phase or out of phase.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Hyein Jeong, Hyo-Seok Park, Malte F. Stuecker, Sang-Wook Yeh
Summary: The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a significant impact on Arctic temperature, and accurately representing sea surface temperature patterns is crucial for Arctic climate predictions.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Zongci Huang, Wenjun Zhang, Chao Liu, Malte F. Stuecker
Summary: The three strongest positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events in the past four decades occurred in 1994, 1997, and 2019, causing severe social-economic impacts in Indian Ocean rim countries. These events showed similar oceanic and atmospheric anomaly patterns during their mature phase, with different physical origins, and were closely related to concurrent El Nino or Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yu Zhang, Shi-Yun Yu, Dillon J. Amaya, Yu Kosaka, Malte F. Stuecker, Jun-Chao Yang, Xiaopei Lin, Lei Fan
Summary: The study reveals the connection between tropical Pacific-forced Aleutian low variability and the Pacific Meridional Mode, while tropical Pacific-forced North Pacific Oscillation does not significantly influence PMM variability. This finding provides important insights for future research on subtropical-tropical interactions.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Chao Liu, Wenjun Zhang, Fei-Fei Jin, Malte F. Stuecker, Licheng Geng
Summary: Quasi-decadal climate variability has been observed in the tropical Pacific based on 70 years of data. This variability is similar to the Central Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but extends to higher latitudes in the subtropical Pacific. Nonlinear dynamical heating, primarily from strong El Nino events, is found to be the main driver of this variability, leading the sea surface temperatures by a quarter of its dominant period. This suggests that the observed quasi-decadal variability is fundamentally different from the oscillatory nature of ENSO.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Hyein Jeong, Hyo-Seok Park, Malte F. Stuecker, Sang-Wook Yeh
Summary: This study used a climate model to analyze the reasons for the decline in Arctic summer sea ice. The study found that the back-to-back La Nina events during 2010-2011 and the tropical sea surface temperature anomalies in 2012 played a key role in the record low sea ice extent in 2012.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Eui-Seok Chung, Seong-Joong Kim, Axel Timmermann, Kyung-Ja Ha, Sang-Ki Lee, Malte F. Stuecker, Keith B. Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee, Lei Huang
Summary: Satellite observations show slight increases in Antarctic sea-ice extent, contradicting climate model predictions. This study finds that the expansion of sea ice is due to cooling of the Southern Ocean surface, which is primarily linked to teleconnections with the tropical Pacific Ocean. The discrepancy between models and observations may be caused by model bias in the forced response and observed tropical variability.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Benjamin D. Santer, Stephen Po-Chedley, Nicole Feldl, John C. Fyfe, Qiang Fu, Susan Solomon, Mark England, Keith B. Rodgers, Malte F. Stuecker, Carl Mears, Cheng-Zhi Zou, Celine J. W. Bonfils, Giuliana Pallotta, Mark D. Zelinka, Nan Rosenbloom, Jim Edwards
Summary: The study used five climate models to conduct large ensembles and found that despite differences in models, the seasonal cycle changes in T-AC(x, t) in satellite data and models are similar and identifiable. The global-scale fingerprint patterns, distinct from smaller-scale internal variability patterns, are robustly detectable in both observations and models, indicating common forced T-AC(x, t) changes driven by basic physical processes.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Huijing Zhang, Wenjun Zhang, Xin Geng, Feng Jiang, Malte F. Stuecker
Summary: Many previous studies have shown that El Nino exhibits strong seasonality in its teleconnections and regional climate impacts. This seasonality is mainly due to the seasonal cycle of the eastern tropical Pacific SST background state and differs between different types of El Nino events.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Editorial Material
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Dillon Amaya, Michael G. Jacox, Melanie R. Fewings, Vincent S. Saba, Malte F. Stuecker, Ryan R. Rykaczewski, Andrew C. Ross, Charles A. Stock, Antonietta Capotondi, Colleen M. Petrik, Steven J. Bograd, Michael A. Alexander, Wei Cheng, Albert J. Hermann, Kelly A. Kearney, Brian S. Powell
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Feng Jiang, Wenjun Zhang, Fei-Fei Jin, Malte F. F. Stuecker, Axel Timmermann, Michael J. J. McPhaden, Julien Boucharel, Andrew T. T. Wittenberg
Summary: Understanding the connection between the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans has been a challenge for the climate community. While Atlantic Nino events are usually followed by Pacific events of opposite sign, incorporating Atlantic information does not enhance predictive skill for subsequent ENSO events. This study resolves this conundrum by showing that the observed correlation between Atlantic and Pacific is a statistical artifact, and the impact of Pacific events on the Atlantic is limited to a short window in late spring.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Chao Liu, Soon-Il An, Fei-Fei Jin, Jongsoo Shin, Jong-Seong Kug, Wenjun Zhang, Malte F. Stuecker, Xinyi Yuan, Aoyun Xue, Xin Geng, Soong-Ki Kim
Summary: Studies show that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits strong hysteresis responses to carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction, which may amplify and prolong its impact in a warming climate, leading to significant socioeconomic consequences.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Chao Liu, Soon-Il An, Fei-Fei Jin, Malte F. Stuecker, Wenjun Zhang, Jong-Seong Kug, Xinyi Yuan, Jongsoo Shin, Aoyun Xue, Xin Geng, Soong-Ki Kim
Summary: This study reveals the hysteresis of ENSO skewness in response to CO2 forcing. The positive SST skewness in the tropical Pacific weakens with increasing CO2 and weakens even further with decreasing CO2. The migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone leads to more active and eastward-located strong El Nino events, resulting in a reduction of central Pacific ENSO skewness.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Review
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Malte F. Stuecker
Summary: Climate variability has distinct spatial patterns with the strongest signal residing in the tropical Pacific. To improve the understanding of internal climate variability, a conceptual model hierarchy is proposed to capture the observed variability from subseasonal to decadal timescales. The model hierarchy allows for tracing the impacts of seasonal processes on observed and simulated climate variability.
GEOSCIENCE LETTERS
(2023)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Antonietta Capotondi, Shayne McGregor, Michael J. McPhaden, Sophie Cravatte, Neil J. Holbrook, Yukiko Imada, Sara C. Sanchez, Janet Sprintall, Malte F. Stuecker, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Mathias Zeller, Riccardo Farneti, Giorgio Graffino, Shijian Hu, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Yu Kosaka, Fred Kucharski, Michael Mayer, Bo Qiu, Agus Santoso, Andrea S. Taschetto, Fan Wang, Xuebin Zhang, Ryan M. Holmes, Jing-Jia Luo, Nicola Maher, Cristian Martinez-Villalobos, Gerald A. Meehl, Rajashree Naha, Niklas Schneider, Samantha Stevenson, Arnold Sullivan, Peter van Rensch, Tongtong Xu
Summary: In this Review, the mechanisms and characteristics of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) are synthesized, including oceanic processes and atmospheric processes. Oceanic processes involve Rossby waves, upper-ocean overturning circulation, and salinity-compensated temperature anomalies, while atmospheric processes involve internal variability and atmospheric teleconnections. The tropical adjustment mechanism is likely the dominant mechanism, but the origin and spectral characteristics of TPDV-related winds remain uncertain.
NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Nicola Maher, Robert C. Jnglin Wills, Pedro DiNezio, Jeremy Klavans, Sebastian Milinski, Sara C. Sanchez, Samantha Stevenson, Malte F. Stuecker, Xian Wu
Summary: Future changes in ENSO are uncertain due to differences between climate models and the large internal variability. By using single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), we separate the forced changes in ENSO SST variability from internal variability. We find nonlinear changes in time and inter-model differences in projected ENSO changes and tropical Pacific SST gradient. Our results show the importance of characterizing time-dependent behavior and the value of SMILEs for ENSO projections.
EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
(2023)