Article
Fisheries
Ernesto Jardim, Manuela Azevedo, Jon Brodziak, Elizabeth N. Brooks, Kelli F. Johnson, Nikolai Klibansky, Colin P. Millar, Coilin Minto, Iago Mosqueira, Richard D. M. Nash, Paraskevas Vasilakopoulos, Brian K. Wells
Summary: This paper examines the potential of using ensemble modelling to capture assessment uncertainties and enhance the robustness of advice provision, discussing both the advantages and challenges of this approach. It emphasizes the uncertainties in stock assessment processes and the need for simpler models due to the complexity of fish population dynamics. Recommendations are made for revisions to the current assessment modelling methods and further research to evaluate the benefits in modelling and advice performance.
ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Fisheries
Rujia Bi, Chip Collier, Roger Mann, Katherine E. Mills, Vincent Saba, John Wiedenmann, Olaf P. Jensen
Summary: Fishery management often requires precautionary buffering for scientific uncertainty. This study analyzed commercially exploited marine stocks worldwide and found variation in inter-assessment estimates. The study suggests that these uncertainty estimates can help determine the size of precautionary buffers.
FISH AND FISHERIES
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Emma E. H. Doyle, Jessica Thompson, Stephen Hill, Matt Williams, Douglas Paton, Sara Harrison, Ann Bostrom, Julia Becker
Summary: The science of assessing natural hazards and risks involves various complex elements, resulting in uncertainty. A study conducted in New Zealand revealed key themes about uncertainty, including participants' understanding, the difficulty of defining uncertainty, and the positive role uncertainty plays in promoting debate and further research.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jacob W. Bentley, Mathieu G. Lundy, Daniel Howell, Steven E. Beggs, Alida Bundy, Francisco de Castro, Clive J. Fox, Johanna J. Heymans, Christopher P. Lynam, Debbi Pedreschi, Pia Schuchert, Natalia Serpetti, Johnny Woodlock, David G. Reid
Summary: Incorporating ecosystem information into fisheries stock assessments has proven challenging due to uncertainty of input data and structural uncertainty of complex multi-species models. This study proposes a new approach using stock-specific ecosystem indicators to set an ecosystem-based fishing mortality reference point (FECO). The FECO can be used to adjust fishing mortality based on ecosystem conditions, providing a quantitative way of incorporating ecosystem information into catch advice.
FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Humanities, Multidisciplinary
Benjamin M. Vallejo, Rodrigo Angelo C. Ong
Summary: This article comments on the science advice situation in the Philippines during the COVID-19 pandemic. It focuses on the independent advisory organization OCTA Research, which has become a leading source of scientific information and advice for the public and government. The factors that contribute to OCTA Research's dominance as a science advice source are examined, including the diversity of scientific evidence and the processes of evidence synthesis and brokerage for political decision makers. The dynamics between the government, academic research, and science advisory actors are described, along with the issue of role conflation in science advice. Approaches for establishing a largely independent government science advisory system in the Philippines are proposed.
HUMANITIES & SOCIAL SCIENCES COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Fisheries
Jonathan White, Colm Fitzgerald, Patrick Gargan, Elvira de Eyto, Michael Millane, Gerald Chaput, Paddy Boylan, Walter W. Crozier, Dennis Doherty, Bryan Kennedy, Ian Lawler, David Lyons, Ferdia Marnell, Phil McGinnity, Kealan O'Higgins, William K. Roche, Hugo Maxwell, Niall O. Maoileidigh
Summary: International management of wild Atlantic salmon has shifted towards conservation in recognition of the decline in diversity and abundance. A catch-advice framework has been established to manage fisheries in line with international obligations. The framework includes a risk assessment approach that considers uncertainty in salmon numbers and spawning requirements. The aim is to protect stocks failing to meet spawning thresholds while supporting sustainable exploitation of those achieving them.
ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Business, Finance
Kiryoung Lee
Summary: The index of geopolitical risk (GPR) is found to have a significant association with stock market participation decisions in terms of both the extensive and intensive margins. The GPR index is seen to capture the importance of economic policy uncertainty for stock market participation decisions and has long-lasting effects for up to 12 months. The study further investigates the economic channel through which the GPR index affects stock market participation and finds a link between the GPR index and financial uncertainty, while no evidence is found supporting the income uncertainty channel.
FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Armin Grunwald
Summary: The paper discusses Technology Assessment (TA), Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI), and Sustainability Research (SR) as manifestations of reflexive modernization in problem-oriented and transformative research. It aims to unfold the hypothesis regarding these approaches within reflexive modernization, clarify the meaning of 'reflexive' in each approach, identify commonalities and differences between them, and draw conclusions for their relation and further development.
Article
Psychology, Multidisciplinary
Qizhang Sun, Michael Gibbert, Thomas Hills, Eric Nowak
Summary: Risk-taking is crucial in decision-making, but sometimes information about risk is unavailable, leading people to seek advice. In two experimental studies in the context of financial investment, we investigate whether investors exhibit bias in following advice and how biased advice-following affects risk-taking. We also examine whether factors such as advice quality, decision environment, and justification moderate the bias. The findings suggest that decision-makers follow advice across different risk domains and its quality matters. However, there is a bias towards risk-seeking advice over risk-averse advice, which is consistent regardless of the decision environment but limited to high-quality advice and explanations.
CURRENT PSYCHOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Business, Finance
Ayman Mnasri, Naceur Essaddam
Summary: The study aims to examine the impact of U.S. presidential elections on stock market volatility, and finds a positive and statistically significant relationship between implied volatility and the probability of the opposing party candidate winning.
FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Business, Finance
Fei Lu, Feng Ma, Qiang Guo
Summary: This study examines the effectiveness of the Global Financial Uncertainty (GFU) indices in predicting stock market volatility. The results demonstrate the remarkable and stable predictive power of GFU, highlighting the significance of the European financial uncertainty index. This study provides important insights for market participants and policymakers to prioritize global financial uncertainty.
INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
(2023)
Article
Business, Finance
Phuc Lam Thy Nguyen, Rasha Alsakka, Noemi Mantovan
Summary: This paper examines the impact of election uncertainty and shock on stock markets. Using a dataset of political preferences during 91 elections in EU countries, the analysis finds that changes in political support significantly affect stock market volatility before elections, and volatility increases in post-election periods. The magnitude of election shock is influenced by the difference between the actual election outcome and the expected outcome, which also impacts stock markets. These findings suggest that pre-election polls can be used as a proxy for market expectations. The implications of these findings are important for investors, fiscal policy makers, and pollster regulators.
INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
(2023)
Article
History & Philosophy Of Science
Simon Blessenohl, Deniz Sarikaya
Summary: When advising policy-makers, scientists can choose to say what they have a high credence in, what they expect to lead to good policy outcomes, or what they expect to make the policy-makers' credences accurate.
Article
Fisheries
Fan Zhang, Kevin B. Reid, Thomas D. Nudds
Summary: This study clarified the necessity and conditions for including non-stationary population processes in stock assessment models, highlighting the unreliability of conventional constant parameter models under regime shifts characterized by low-frequency, large-magnitude variation in drivers of fish population dynamics.
FISH AND FISHERIES
(2021)
Article
Business, Finance
Jae H. Kim, Abul Shamsuddin
Summary: We use extreme bounds analysis (EBA) to assess the robustness or fragility of various stock market anomalies using U.S. daily data from 1960 to 2023. EBA is a large-scale sensitivity analysis that allows the isolation of the effects of potential data-mining or p-hacking given model uncertainty. The anomalies explored include Halloween, sports events, seasonal affective disorder, weather, political cycle, daylight saving, and lunar phase. We find that the empirical evidence for these anomalies is highly fragile in terms of effect size estimates and statistical significance.
INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
(2023)
Article
Fisheries
Andre E. Punt, Claudio Castillo-Jordan, Owen S. Hamel, Jason M. Cope, Mark N. Maunder, James N. Ianelli
Summary: Natural mortality (M) is a crucial parameter in fish stock assessment, but estimating it accurately can be challenging and errors can impact management decisions. Using feedback management strategies can mitigate the effects of errors in M, but achieving management objectives may be compromised when errors are present.
FISHERIES RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Andre E. Punt, Margaret C. Siple, Tessa B. Francis, Philip S. Hammond, Dennis Heinemann, Kristy J. Long, Jeff Moore, Maritza Sepulveda, Randall R. Reeves, Gudjon Mar Sigurdsson, Gisli Vikingsson, Paul R. Wade, Rob Williams, Alexandre N. Zerbini
Summary: The study addresses the challenge of determining acceptable rates of human-caused mortality in low-data situations for marine mammals and conservation species. Three alternative methods are developed to identify acceptable levels of human-caused mortality for long-lived, slowly reproducing species, using relative abundance indices and estimates of bycatch mortality in fisheries. The study shows that these methods can achieve conservation performance similar to the traditional PBR approach, but are more sensitive to uncertainties in estimating bycatch mortality.
JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Fisheries
Tobias K. Mildenberger, Casper W. Berg, Alexandros Kokkalis, Adrian R. Hordyk, Chantel Wetzel, Nis S. Jacobsen, Andre E. Punt, J. Rasmus Nielsen
Summary: The study compares the effectiveness of two precautionary approaches in recovering over-exploited fish stocks, finding that both methods reduce the risk of overfishing at the expense of expected yield. The success of these strategies depends on HCRs, life-history parameters, and the level of scientific uncertainty.
FISH AND FISHERIES
(2022)
Article
Fisheries
Margaret C. Siple, Laura E. Koehn, Kelli F. Johnson, Andre E. Punt, T. Mariella Canales, Piera Carpi, Carryn L. de Moor, Jose A. A. De Oliveira, Jin Gao, Nis S. Jacobsen, Mimi E. Lam, Roberto Licandeo, Martin Lindegren, Shuyang Ma, Gudmundur J. Oskarsson, Sonia Sanchez-Marono, Szymon Smolinski, Szymon Surma, Yongjun Tian, Desiree Tommasi, Mariano T. Gutierrez, Verena Trenkel, Stephani G. Zador, Fabian Zimmermann
Summary: Management strategy evaluation (MSE) is a cutting-edge approach for testing and comparing management strategies, accounting for various uncertainties. Small pelagic fish play a vital ecological role in marine food webs, but present challenges to MSE and other evaluation methods due to their substantial ecological and life history uncertainties.
FISH AND FISHERIES
(2021)
Article
Fisheries
Kristin McQuaw, Andre E. Punt, Ray Hilborn
Summary: Rebuilding overfished stocks is crucial for fisheries policy. Evaluating the rebuilding plans in the US West Coast groundfish fishery reveals that adopting a strategy with slower rebuilding rates could minimize adverse impacts to stakeholders while achieving stock rebuilding targets.
FISHERIES RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Fisheries
Lee Cronin-Fine, Andre E. Punt
Summary: This study investigates the best method for modeling time-varying selectivity and the most robust likelihood function for size-composition data given time-varying selectivity in fisheries assessments. The results show that discrete time blocking can effectively capture time-varying selectivity, leading to a reduction in estimated parameters and variance of quantities. The multinomial likelihood function is preferred as it provides better estimates for desirable management quantities more frequently than others.
FISHERIES RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Yu Kanaji, Hikari Maeda, Hiroshi Okamura, Andre E. Punt, Trevor Branch
Summary: Stock assessment approaches are often oversimplified due to lack of biological knowledge and insufficient data. In this study, integrated population models were developed to analyze the status and trends of fishery-targeted coastal dolphin species in Japan. The multispecies model was selected as the preferred option, showing the importance of considering ecological processes in assessments.
JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Oceanography
Georgina A. Gibson, Matthew R. Baker, William T. Stockhausen, Sarah Hinckley, Carolina Parada, Kerim Aydin, Kenneth O. Coyle, Albert J. Hermann, Thomas P. Hurst, Andre E. Punt
Summary: The Gulf of Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Research Program (GOAIERP) conducted a multi-disciplinary study to examine the influence of the environment on the survival and recruitment of early life stages of commercially and ecologically important groundfish species. The integration of Eulerian ecosystem models and Lagrangian Individual-Based Models provided valuable insights into recruitment processes and their potential application to fisheries management. However, coordination between model development, experimentation, and field sampling is challenging and requires careful consideration of data analysis and model validation.
DEEP-SEA RESEARCH PART II-TOPICAL STUDIES IN OCEANOGRAPHY
(2022)
Article
Fisheries
Madison A. Heller-Shipley, William T. Stockhausen, Benjamin J. Daly, Andre E. Punt, Scott E. Goodman
Summary: The study examined the management of Bering Sea Tanner crab resources by reevaluating the harvest control rule and considering the balance between conservation and economic trade-offs, as well as the uncertainty surrounding reproductive dynamics. The collaborative effort between managers and stakeholders provided a tool for improved fishery management strategies that can achieve conservation goals while maintaining economic performance.
FISHERIES RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Fisheries
Andre E. Punt, John R. Brandon, Douglas P. DeMaster, Paula T. Moreno
Summary: The PBR level is an important threshold for managing marine mammal-fishery interactions, and a simulation framework applied to the US stock of gray seals in the northwest Atlantic shows the relationship between the probability of incorrectly inferring average bycatch mortality and the coefficient of variation for abundance estimates.
FISHERIES RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Fisheries
Kristin M. M. Privitera-Johnson, Richard D. D. Methot, Andre E. E. Punt
Summary: The specification of selectivity in integrated stock assessments is crucial for accurate management estimates. This paper compares 12 approaches using simulation and finds that double normal selectivity is most robust to uncertainty in the true form of selectivity.
FISHERIES RESEARCH
(2022)
Review
Fisheries
Daniel R. Goethel, Kristen L. Omori, Andre E. Punt, Patrick D. Lynch, Aaron M. Berger, Carryn L. de Moor, Eva E. Plaganyi, Jason M. Cope, Natalie A. Dowling, Richard McGarvey, Ann L. Preece, James T. Thorson, Milani Chaloupka, Sarah Gaichas, Eric Gilman, Sybrand A. Hesp, Catherine Longo, Nan Yao, Richard D. Methot
Summary: Marine population modeling is an important research field that supports fisheries interventions. It has made recent advancements to address challenges like climate change and enduring issues such as data limitations. The review highlights the integration of various dimensions in fisheries models, facilitated by interdisciplinary research teams and improved data collection protocols. However, the implementation of model-based advice and sharing of confidential data remain challenges. The authors recommend participatory co-management approaches, wider inclusion of local knowledge and stakeholder input, and improved communication and engagement in fisheries management to make better informed decisions.
REVIEWS IN FISH BIOLOGY AND FISHERIES
(2023)
Article
Fisheries
Sean Pascoe, Andre E. Punt, Trevor Hutton, Paul Burch, Pia Bessell-Browne, L. Richard Little
Summary: Consideration of economic outcomes is common in fisheries management globally, but few jurisdictions prioritize economic objectives. Australia's federally managed fisheries have adopted maximum economic yield (MEY) as their primary objective, with biomass-based target reference points used in harvest control rules. In the absence of explicit estimates for biomass-based MEY (BMEY), proxy estimates based on maximum sustainable yield (BMSY) are used. However, estimating BMEY in multi-species fisheries is challenging due to assessments conducted at the individual species level, while economic activity spans across species. This complexity is further compounded in fisheries with multiple fishing gears and targeting practices. Using an age-structured bioeconomic model, this study estimates BMEY for key species in a multi-species, multi-metier fishery, revealing higher optimal biomass levels compared to the current proxy-based system, with economic targets sensitive to changing prices and fishing costs.
CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FISHERIES AND AQUATIC SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Fisheries
Cody S. Szuwalski, Anne B. Hollowed, Kirstin K. Holsman, James N. Ianelli, Christopher M. Legault, Michael C. Melnychuk, Dan Ovando, Andre E. Punt
Summary: Climate change can impact global fisheries productivity. Maintaining current management targets is more beneficial for biodiversity protection than increasing catch through climate adaptation in maximum sustainable yield (MSY) based management. The conservation gain of maintaining management targets increases as the harmful impacts of climate change on productivity worsen. New management tools are needed to balance conservation and food production in ecosystems with non-stationary productivity.
FISH AND FISHERIES
(2023)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
A. J. Warlick, G. K. Himes Boor, T. L. McGuire, K. E. W. Shelden, E. K. Jacobson, C. Boyd, P. R. Wade, A. E. Punt, S. J. Converse
Summary: Knowledge about demographic and environmental factors is crucial for designing effective conservation measures. This study used an integrated population model to analyze the endangered Cook Inlet population of beluga whales. The research revealed possible depression in survival and fecundity, and predicted a continued decline with a 17-32% probability of extinction in 150 years. The study highlights the usefulness of integrated population modeling in understanding population dynamics and identifying factors contributing to the failure of protected populations to recover.
ANIMAL CONSERVATION
(2023)
Article
Fisheries
Miguel Petrere Jr, Davi Butturi-Gomes
Summary: This short communication aims to raise awareness about the misuse of confidence intervals in Ecology and Fisheries statistical models that ignore the lack of independence.
FISHERIES RESEARCH
(2024)
Article
Fisheries
Peter-John F. Hulson, Benjamin C. Williams
Summary: This study evaluates the impact of considering ageing error and growth variability on the determination of input sample size (ISS) in statistical catch-at-age assessment models. The results show that including these sources of uncertainty decreases the ISS determined through bootstrap methods. This indicates that there is more variability in age composition and conditional age-at-length data than previously accounted for. Including these sources of uncertainty improves the estimation of ISS and subsequently improves the quality of stock assessment models.
FISHERIES RESEARCH
(2024)
Article
Fisheries
Jason M. Cope
Summary: Fishery resource assessment is a complex and challenging task, but with the use of different analysis methods and tools, effective management guidance can be provided even with limited data and resources.
FISHERIES RESEARCH
(2024)
Article
Fisheries
Regina L. Cunha, Joana I. Robalo, Sara M. Francisco, Ines Farias, Rita Castilho, Ivone Figueiredo
Summary: Recent advances in genomics have greatly contributed to the assessment of fish stocks by providing precise identification of genetic boundaries. This study used a genotyping-by-sequencing approach to reveal the existence of an additional genetic cluster of blackspot seabream in the northeast Atlantic, which was not previously identified. Factors such as ocean circulation patterns and local upwelling may play a role in the genetic differentiation observed in this study.
FISHERIES RESEARCH
(2024)
Article
Fisheries
Huihua Lee, Mark N. Maunder, Kevin R. Piner
Summary: Estimating growth is important for fish population assessment. Integrated assessment models and the influence of misfitting size composition data have renewed interest in how growth is modeled. The available data types control how the length-at-age relationship is estimated. Estimating length-at-age is complex due to multiple sources of biological variability and difficulties in obtaining representative samples.
FISHERIES RESEARCH
(2024)
Article
Fisheries
A. Ladino, I. Perez-Arjona, V. Espinosa, M. Chillaron, V. Vidal, L. M. Godinho, G. Moreno, G. Boyra
Summary: This study examines the acoustic properties of skipjack tuna and Atlantic mackerel, both bladderless pelagic fish species, and explains the significant differences observed. The research shows that the differences in material properties of their tissues predict a more than 10 dB greater reduced target strength in skipjack compared to mackerel at certain frequencies.
FISHERIES RESEARCH
(2024)
Article
Fisheries
Nelly Pena-Cutimbo, Cristel Cordero-Maldonado, Clara Ortiz-Alvarez, Joanna Alfaro-Shigueto, Jeffrey C. Mangel
Summary: Bycatch is a global problem for marine megafauna. This study assessed the bycatch interactions of the Peruvian artisanal purse-seine fishery in 2019 and found that all taxa groups were affected by bycatch. Dusky dolphins, guanay cormorants, and eagle rays were the most frequently reported bycatch species.
FISHERIES RESEARCH
(2024)
Article
Fisheries
Jen-Ming Liu, Po-Yuk So
Summary: The set-net fishery is an environmentally friendly fishery posing little risk to the marine ecosystem. This study identified ocean temperature, sea surface factors, and climatic factors as the main factors affecting the installation of set-nets.
FISHERIES RESEARCH
(2024)
Article
Fisheries
Josie L. Palmer, Carina Armstrong, Hasan D. Akbora, Damla Beton, Cigdem Caglar, Brendan J. Godley, Kristian Metcalfe, Meryem Ozkan, Robin T. E. Snape, Annette C. Broderick
Summary: Small-scale fisheries are vital for global food security and cultural heritage, but the lack of information hampers effective management and mitigation of ecological impacts. This study provides the first comprehensive overview of the small-scale fishery fleet in Northern Cyprus. The fleet operates mainly over the continental shelf, using static and demersal gear types, and catches a diverse range of species, some of which are threatened. The findings can be used to improve fisheries management and conservation measures.
FISHERIES RESEARCH
(2024)