Nomogram for predicting pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with advanced gastric cancer

BACKGROUND Survival benefit of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for advanced gastric cancer (AGC) is a debatable issue. Studies have shown that the survival benefit of NAC is dependent on the pathological response to chemotherapy drugs. For those who achieve pathological complete response (pCR), NAC significantly prolonged prolapsed-free survival and overall survival. For those with poor response, NAC yielded no survival benefit, only toxicity and increased risk for tumor progression during chemotherapy, which may hinder surgical resection. Thus, predicting pCR to NAC is of great clinical significance and can help achieve individualized treatment in AGC patients. AIM To establish a nomogram for predicting pCR to NAC for AGC patients. METHODS Two-hundred and eight patients diagnosed with AGC who received NAC followed by resection surgery from March 2012 to July 2019 were enrolled in this study. Their clinical data were retrospectively analyzed by logistic regression analysis to determine the possible predictors for pCR. Based on these predictors, a nomogram model was developed and internally validated using the bootstrap method. RESULTS pCR was confirmed in 27 patients (27/208, 13.0%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that higher carcinoembryonic antigen level, lymphocyte ratio, lower monocyte count and tumor differentiation grade were associated with higher pCR. Concordance statistic of the established nomogram was 0.767. CONCLUSION A nomogram predicting pCR to NAC was established. Since this nomogram exhibited satisfactory predictive power despite utilizing easily available pretreatment parameters, it can be inferred that this nomogram is practical for the development of personalized treatment strategy for AGC patients.