A nomogram to predict non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in patients with initial cN plus breast cancer that downstages to cN0 after neoadjuvant chemotherapy

Background and Objectives This study mainly explored the factors that influence non-sentinel lymph node (NSLN) metastasis in patients with breast cancer (BC) whose axillary lymph nodal status changed from clinically node positive (cN+) to clinically node negative (cN0) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). Methods We retrospectively analyzed the clinicopathological factors affecting NSLN metastasis in a total of 179 patients with cN+ BC downstaged to cN0 (120 in the training set and 59 in the validation set) who underwent both sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy and axillary lymph node dissection following NAC. Results Among 179 patients enrolled, the overall NSLN metastatic rate was 24.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.7%-30.3%). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, the number of positive SLNs achieving a pathological complete remission of the breast and clinical node staging was independent predictors of NSLN metastasis. A nomogram was established based on these factors and displayed a good discriminatory capability, with an area under the curve of 0.919 (95% CI: 0.865-0.973) for the training set and 0.900 (95% CI: 0.812-0.988) for the validation set and its clinical utility was confirmed by the decision curve analysis. Conclusions The nomogram established showed the ability to predict NSLN metastases in patients with initial cN+ BC that downstaged to cN0 after NAC.