Predicting the potential distribution of an invasive species, Erigeron canadensis L., in China with a maximum entropy model

Erigeron canadensis L., an alien invasive plant originating from North America, has already invaded Chongqing, Sichuan, Taiwan, and some other areas in China. It causes damage to the local ecosystems and has demonstrated great potential for invasion. With the use of occurrence points, this study combined the maximum entropy niche model with geographic information system to comprehensively analyse the influencing factors affecting the distribution of E. canadensis and to quantitatively and intuitively predict its potential distribution range in China. The prediction was verified by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis method, and the results showed that E. canadensis had a wide range of potential distribution regions in China, with the main suitable regions in Taiwan, Hainan, and Guangdong. The current actual distribution is far from the maximum potential distribution range, and it is still likely to continue to spread. The ROC curve results showed that the MaxEnt model had a high prediction accuracy and that the results were credible. Temperature and precipitation could be the main influencing factors affecting the potential distribution of E. canadensis. We should attach great importance to the dangers of E. canadensis, take measures to eliminate the current population in China, and strictly monitor the invasion and spread of E. canadensis. to its most suitable possible distribution region. (C) 2019 Published by Elsevier B.V.