Prevalence of Fractures and Diagnostic Accuracy of Emergency X-ray in Older Adults Sustaining a Low-Energy Fall: A Retrospective Study

Background: Plain radiography (XR) series are standard of care for detection of fall-related fractures in older patients with low-energy falls (LEF) in the emergency department (ED). We have investigated the prevalence of fractures and diagnostic accuracy of XR imaging in the ED. Methods: 2839 patients with LEF, who were presented to two urban level I trauma centers in 2016 and received XR and computed tomography (CT), were consecutively included in this retrospective cohort study. The primary endpoint was the prevalence of fractures of the vertebral column, rib cage, pelvic ring, and proximal long bones. Secondary endpoints were diagnostic accuracy of XR for fracture detection with CT as reference standard and cumulative radiation doses applied. Results: Median age was 82 years (range 65-105) with 64.1% female patients. Results revealed that 585/2839 (20.6%) patients sustained fractures and 452/2839 (15.9%) patients received subsequent XR and CT examinations of single body regions. Cross-tabulation analysis revealed sensitivity of XR of 49.7%, a positive likelihood ratio of 27.6, and negative likelihood ratio of 0.5. Conclusions: XR is of moderate diagnostic accuracy for ruling-out fractures of the spine, pelvic ring, and rib cage in older patients with LEF. Prospective validations are required to investigate the overall risk-benefit of direct CT imaging strategies, considering the trade-off between diagnostic safety, health care costs, and radiation exposure.